ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS, 60+ Hr NAM.... vs euro, ukie, eps, 80% of ensemble support, JMA, and partially the GGEM.... It's more of 4dvar vs. non-4dvar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 The GFS has been awful with this since Jump Street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS continues to be the only model however that's showing this storm moving as fast as it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS, 60+ Hr NAM.... vs euro, ukie, eps, 80% of ensemble support, JMA, and partially the GGEM.... Not even a contest. The crazy ensemble support is the biggest tell all IMO. At this stage I am much more worried about this storm hugging the coast to tightly and dry slotting and causing warmer surface temps for I-95 and east. I doubt this thing goes out to sea with this setup and these water temps. I think areas 50-100 miles nw of I-95 jackpot, along with the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ignore the GFS, the thing is on crack cocaine right now. It's solutions are so far out of left field it's not even funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS continues to be the only model however that's showing this storm moving as fast as it is Euro sped it up a little too though at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 the OPC ain't here to deliver the mail POWDERFINGER for the METRO book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 With the ensemble means of the ECM showing what they are and they being the better ensemble package and with a major lean west the ECM is more likely to come in further west tonight... Timing: GFS is a progressive model compared to the ECM...so until we get closer its going to have its issues. One issue i see is height raises do not occur on the GFS like they do on the ECM and there is your most likely difference and reason why its having problems.. Look at the NAVGEM this is suppose to be the most progressive model...then look at the GFS.. Euro is not alone here ....it has back up and support and it does not look like WPC is buying the GFS either.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 the OPC ain't here to deliver the mail POWDERFINGER for the METRO book it What does that even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 What does that even mean? It means the OPC is sold on a snowstorm for the METRO they are the pro's powderfingers is what you will have on your snow gloves as you shovel out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Missed your posts on all of the rain in E TX last week, how did you personally make out? I had about 4" over the 3 or 4 days of the event. We really needed the rain here in Austin, although east of here the result was much worse obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12Z GFS Low location mean and spread. 18Z hasn't come out just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Mt Holly NWS discussion. No talk of a huge snow storm, but rather a small event. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE COASTAL STORMEXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THETIMING OF THE STORM WITH SEVERAL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS THEFASTEST, WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN AREGENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO. THE GFS IS INDICATING THEPRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILETHE ECMWF DOESN`T BRING MUCH IN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CANADIANAND NAM GENERALLY BRING PRECIPITATION IN DURING THEEVENING/OVERNIGHT. SO FOR NOW, WE`VE INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT,WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH. SUNDAY HAS THEHIGHEST POPS EVERYWHERE AS THIS WILL THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FORPRECIPITATION BASED ON CONSENSUS WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. AS WEPROGRESS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST CLEARING THEPRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIALFOR AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS, SO WE`LL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGHTHE NIGHT SUNDAY.THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHAT THE P-TYPES WILL BE. AS ALWAYS,BUT EVEN MORE SO IN THIS TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN SEASONS, THETHERMAL PROFILE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON WHEREPRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW OR RAIN, OR A WINTRY MIX OFRAIN/SLEET/SNOW. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREASBASICALLY RIGHT ALONG, AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDORWILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT. HOWEVER, WITHWARM GROUND AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, SNOW AMOUNTS COULD POSSIBLYLIMITED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T GET AN ACCUMULATION. AREASSOUTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD BEGIN AS SNOW, THEN MIX WITH ORCHANGE OVER TO RAIN AT TIMES, THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOWBEFORE IT ENDS. FOR AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALLSNOW, WE COULD SEE AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE AREAS THATCHANGE OVER TO RAIN MAY NOT SEE MUCH AT ALL. AREAS IN BETWEENCOULD SEE MAYBE 1-2 INCHES, WITH LESS FOR THOSE WHO MIX. ASUSUAL, THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES,SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR FUTURE UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 This was an easy winter for forecasting snow since the heaviest model generally won out over the lighter ones. NAM for the blizzard and the UKMET for the follow up storm. It's about time the Euro lead on a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Mt Holly NWS discussion. No talk of a huge snow storm, but rather a small event. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE COASTAL STORM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE STORM WITH SEVERAL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST, WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO. THE GFS IS INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF DOESN`T BRING MUCH IN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND NAM GENERALLY BRING PRECIPITATION IN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SO FOR NOW, WE`VE INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH. SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST POPS EVERYWHERE AS THIS WILL THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON CONSENSUS WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. AS WE PROGRESS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS, SO WE`LL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHAT THE P-TYPES WILL BE. AS ALWAYS, BUT EVEN MORE SO IN THIS TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN SEASONS, THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW OR RAIN, OR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREAS BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG, AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT. HOWEVER, WITH WARM GROUND AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, SNOW AMOUNTS COULD POSSIBLY LIMITED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T GET AN ACCUMULATION. AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD BEGIN AS SNOW, THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AT TIMES, THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS. FOR AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALL SNOW, WE COULD SEE AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE AREAS THAT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN MAY NOT SEE MUCH AT ALL. AREAS IN BETWEEN COULD SEE MAYBE 1-2 INCHES, WITH LESS FOR THOSE WHO MIX. AS USUAL, THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR FUTURE UPDATES. There not going to at this point and time say anything different with the spread in models..And even with no spread they would not say anything different. MT Holly NWS with this years blizzard of 31.9 inches at ABE started their forecast for 4-8 inches ..well the final was 31.9 so there conservative stance chose to bite them hard... Sit back, watch, and wait for the agreement on the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 this isn't accurate. According to euro this is a coastal snowstorm, leaving NYC with high winds and heavy wet snow. U may be talking about twin forks that could have an inch or two as the storm pulls out Edit: this is a big storm, NYC will cash in cause it's a bit closer to the storm resulting bigger accumulated precipitation but lower ratios, ulster and north jersey will have less accumulated precipitation but colder and lower wind speeds resulting much higher ratios, still a general 12-24 inches is possible except for extreme Long Island. Unless this storm trends west which I doubt! Please stop. Show me a map that shows anyone getting 24" snow let alone NYC and the middle of the Island getting that. I think there is more of a concern for all of Long Island including the city to experience more rain than snow and perhaps the dreaded dry slot. Exaggerated totals do nobody any good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 There not going to at this point and time say anything different with the spread in models..And even with no spread they would not say anything different. MT Holly NWS with this years blizzard of 31.9 inches at ABE started their forecast for 4-8 inches ..well the final was 31.9 so there conservative stance chose to bite them hard... Sit back, watch, and wait for the agreement on the models... Not so sure.Euro has been a train wreck this year again. Toss is the Canada & UK for a coastal. GFS & NAM are showing minor events and have done well this year. I would have expected the NAM to be tossing cigars to fans at this point. The new MAM model is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Not so sure.Euro has been a train wreck this year again. Toss is the Canada & UK for a coastal. GFS & NAM are showing minor events and have done well this year. I would have expected the NAM to be tossing cigars to fans at this point. The new MAM model is another story. The Euro and UK have verified best this year. If you think the GFS is a better indication than the Euro ensembles i dont know what to tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 People need to stop getting carried away. 3 days gives a lot of time for changes. The smart thing for any forecaster to do right now would be to say a few inches is likely with the possibility for more if models like the Euro are right. If it really does end up like the GFS or NAM, not many would see much accumulation anyway, due to marginal temps and the warm ground. And in late March, the sun angle does make a difference when the snow is light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Not so sure.Euro has been a train wreck this year again. Toss is the Canada & UK for a coastal. GFS & NAM are showing minor events and have done well this year. I would have expected the NAM to be tossing cigars to fans at this point. The new MAM model is another story. European model was the model that allowed me to tell my clients days in advance that we were getting what we were getting and then the NAM model sealed the deal... i will agree to disagree about the NAM/GFS cause just cause the NAM gets one storm right does not make it reliable and the GFS is hardly ever correct.... Wait till the models come into agreement ..You can tell looking at the GFS ensemble mean and spread from 12 Z why the operational is the way it is ...it has the lows spread OUT ALL OVER the place...so different solution on that model each time until it gets its act together and picks up on the higher heights.. NAM may have a clue in 24-48 hrs prior... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Well, if the Euro blows this one after being relatively consistent for several runs showing an I95 special, then perhaps the new and improved Euro needs some, um, more improvements. Fingers crossed it is leading the way like the days of old when it was referred to as "The King". Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Question for those in the NYC/NJ area. Is there any stations throwing out numbers yet for the storm? Just curious, the only numbers I've seen have been from TWC. They had a map out since this am and totals have been in their text products since Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 If anything, the new hi res when running in parallel was too far east with our snowstorms this winter compared to the old. That may be why the EPS has been consistently west of the OP with this storm. I can remember the new Euro only had 8" for me here in SW Suffolk a day before the blizzard and the old OP 15". The Parallel Euro definitely seemed to have a progressive bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Question for those in the NYC/NJ area. Is there any stations throwing out numbers yet for the storm? Just curious, the only numbers I've seen have been from TWC. They had a map out since this am and totals have been in their text products since Monday. Not that I've seen. Lee Goldberg said he'll do predictions at 11:00 P.M., Lonnie probably will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Bill Evans said at noon, probably a couple inches in the city...but dont be surprised to see more then 6 And one of the radio stations, i think 95.5 said 5-8 possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Not that I've seen. Lee Goldberg said he'll do predictions at 11:00 P.M., Lonnie probably will too. He did a probability chart. 3"-6" was the highest chance with 45%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Any talk about loonie Quinn should be confined to vendor or banter threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 No more model runs until goofus at 1130 right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 No more model runs until goofus at 1130 right NAM is first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 18Z GEFS ENS spread and mean, for the same time as i posted the 12z run. 18Z became even more discontinuous than the 12Z cycle. Some members way amped and NW and most weak and SE or over the center and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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