Jason WX Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 NOAA just did a study on it and their new hi res model forecasts some of the quickest SST warming globally due to the weakening AMOC drawing the Gulf Stream further NW. I think the risk of a much stronger hurricane for the Northeast coast is becoming much more likely if it persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Per EPS, LI will have issues with mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Another abysmal GFS performance. It's clear where this is headed. GFS is out to lunch yet again. I expect good agreement at 0z tonight, this is all but certain to be a very major late March snowstorm. Well that does it. I'm fully in storm mode now. When snowman19 gives in to a potential major snow event, you better take cover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 EPS west of the OP right across Cape Cod instead of just east. Maybe the new Euro has a slight east bias since the EPS have been coming in west much of the time so far with this storm. Can remember the old OP west of hi res with many coastals this winter. A day before the blizzard the old Euro had 15 for me and the new only 8. Taking this for what it's worth, does that push the heavier precipitation back farther west or are we still looking similar to the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Snow mean is about 5-6 for the metro and 8 NW of the city. A good amount of member are like 50 miles from the coast They are also stronger so cold air will be rushing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Closer look, about 80% show the low about 50 or so miles off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Now I am concerned this thing keeps trending west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 This is def edging to a NW area jackpot. Typical for late season storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'll take this NAM look all day: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 honestly I don't think NYC gets less than anyone around say north jersey especially if this takes a benchmark track. Reason why is cause this is a coastal storm therefore, as long as our surface temps are below freezing, we will accumulate cause it will be heavy wet snow. The ratios won't be as good in the city but the city will get more accumulated precipitation and it'll be windier resulting similar accumulations. East of Islip id be worried about white rain/taint or mixed precipitation, otherwise this is an all snow event for NYC If you account for a slight shift back to the East, then this ends up just inside the BM, with a track right over the twin forks and then Cape Cod. Currently, this has room to come even further West given the changes I've seen aloft. The Euro has the best banding over NJ and Interior NY, which is why that area does the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12z JMA I figured it was tucked in like that, same as 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'll take this NAM look all day: The NAM is still playing catch up. I'm sure by this time tomorrow it will have spit out a run giving the area 3" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 This is def edging to a NW area jackpot. Typical for late season storms This is the storm that finally breaks the mold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 This is def edging to a NW area jackpot. Typical for late season storms Agreed. This can be a heartbreaker for NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 If you account for a slight shift back to the East, then this ends up just inside the BM, with a track right over the twin forks and then Cape Cod. Currently, this has room to come even further West given the changes I've seen aloft. The Euro has the best banding over NJ and Interior NY, which is why that area does the best. technically according to EURO; NYC is included also in the best banding which I believe the final outcome can be. Your town to about New Haven CT will be in the best banding . Take a lookSent from MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Agreed. This can be a heartbreaker for NYC area. All of NNJ, Orange and Rockland Counties are still part of the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 technically according to EURO; NYC is included also in the best banding which I believe the final outcome can be. Your town to about New Haven CT will be in the best banding . Take a look Sent from MAM Well either way, as the system pulls away, the best banding will get dragged East. And since this never closes off at H5 until past us, it will continue deepening until it reaches NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Well either way, as the system pulls away, the best banding will get dragged East. And since this never closes off at H5 until past us, it will continue deepening until it reaches NNE.my thinking right now this is a foot of snow for Central Park if everything goes as plannedSent from MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 All of NNJ, Orange and Rockland Counties are still part of the NYC area. You live in pompton plains? That's 10'miles from where I live in Livingston. You are not very far inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 All of NNJ, Orange and Rockland Counties are still part of the NYC area. You think Orange County is part of NYC area? Parts of Orange County are close to 100 miles away from NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 You think Orange County is part of NYC area? Parts of Orange County are close to 100 miles away from NYC Agreed! NYC proper is on the verge of not getting much snow if this continues to come north west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Agreed! NYC proper is on the verge of not getting much snow if this continues to come north west Calm down. NYC is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 You live in pompton plains? That's 10'miles from where I live in Livingston. You are not very far inland Nope, I'm about a 25 mile drive from the GWB. Not far at all. The differences though between where I live and a few miles Southeast can be tremendous because I'm at the base of the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 You think Orange County is part of NYC area? Parts of Orange County are close to 100 miles away from NYC The NYC area is massive, and yes I would include Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Agreed! NYC proper is on the verge of not getting much snow if this continues to come north west I really don't see that happening, I just don't think they JP this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 banding won't be nailed down till the event is actually happening,as of right now any low not over or west of n.y.c is a win.of note,the cold air is NOT a fading cold so it's going to snow unless your in the eastern parts of the area and dry slotting occurs snow,snain,back to snow for them.i'm going with a I-95 SPECIAL WITH THIS ONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I hope the interior guys can cash in on this one. I am good for the season. If i get all rain and the city sees a foot so be it, snow will be gone by Wednesday anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Agreed. This can be a heartbreaker for NYC area.this isn't accurate. According to euro this is a coastal snowstorm, leaving NYC with high winds and heavy wet snow. U may be talking about twin forks that could have an inch or two as the storm pulls outEdit: this is a big storm, NYC will cash in cause it's a bit closer to the storm resulting bigger accumulated precipitation but lower ratios, ulster and north jersey will have less accumulated precipitation but colder and lower wind speeds resulting much higher ratios, still a general 12-24 inches is possible except for extreme Long Island. Unless this storm trends west which I doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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