Thunder7842 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 5:43 PM, Morris said: NCEP says the 12Z GFS is now running about 2 hours late. But, word of caution: no soundings or airplane data made it into this run. Maybe thats why this run showed more snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GFS lines up with most other guidance, a bit better for NYC, about 2-3" more toward LI, obviously Edit 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 5:43 PM, Morris said: NCEP says the 12Z GFS is now running about 2 hours late. But, word of caution: no soundings or airplane data made it into this run. It matches the other models. 2-4 for nyc looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 At this point I'm going to start watching the HRRR, and RADAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 My guess: 1-2" NYC 2-5" Nassau, western half of Suffolk, CT 5-7" Eastern half of Suffolk Tr-2" NW suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Looks like there will be a tight accumulation gradient with this storm with NYC close to low warning criteria snow, so we'll have some interesting now casting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:11 PM, jm1220 said: My guess: 1-2" NYC 2-5" Nassau, western half of Suffolk, CT 5-7" Eastern half of Suffolk Tr-2" NW suburbs Sounds about right. But I still believe there is a weak CCB (compared to the classics like boxing and feb 13) that bombs somewhere. Maybe western Suffolk that delivers the largest totals. It's not all that cold here currently so your going to want to be under some good rates. Someone's in for a big surprise. But I don't think it's Nassau this time. It's partly sunny here. And forget about the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Euro is 3 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Yeah. So it keeps getting sunnier. Seems problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Suns out here...no euro report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 HRRRx is only 1-2 for the city from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Euro is 2-3" for most of city, white rain for everyone north and west, 4-7 from central to eastern Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:22 PM, winterwarlock said: Suns out here...no euro report?the snow is supposed to start around 9pm. Euro had exactly 3 inches for the city which I believe what will eventually happen. Tomorrow morning will look nice before it all melts in the afternoon. Enjoy the last snow of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:22 PM, winterwarlock said: Suns out here...no euro report?Basically nothing north and west of NYC, 2-3 inches in the city itself more on Long Island. Bright sunshine up in Rockland County too right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:27 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: the snow is supposed to start around 9pm. Euro had exactly 3 inches for the city which I believe what will eventually happen. Tomorrow morning will look nice before it all melts in the afternoon. Enjoy the last snow of the seasonBy the city, you meant to say Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:30 PM, IsentropicLift said: By the city, you meant to say Queens.central park will get 3 inches imoSent from MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:24 PM, Morris said: HRRRx is only 1-2 for the city from west to east. The 17z HRRR which goes until 3AM isn't impressive either. North and West of the city is maybe an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 People still need to understand that looking at a precip or snow map, does NOT mean that's translating to your snowboard. .3 .4 falls over almost an 8-9hr period... Just because it's overnight does not mean it's gonna accumulate any better, temps are still around freezing, and in some cases will be slightly above. .3 and .4 is NOT gonna be 3-4" of snow Melting process alone would not support this over an 8hr period, precip is WAY to light... Long Island is where this storm is, and a lot of people of setting themselves up for a white rain disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 How about down the shore in Jersey? Think we could get 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:34 PM, Franklin0529 said: How about down the shore in Jersey? Think we could get 2-4" Central and southern shore gets Into better rates, I'd say 2-4" isn't crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 2-4 is a good call for nyc area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:43 PM, Snow88 said: 2-4 is a good call for nyc area . What's NWS say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:44 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: What's NWS say? 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:34 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: People still need to understand that looking at a precip or snow map, does NOT mean that's translating to your snowboard. .3 .4 falls over almost an 8-9hr period... Just because it's overnight does not mean it's gonna accumulate any better, temps are still around freezing, and in some cases will be slightly above. .3 and .4 is NOT gonna be 3-4" of snow Melting process alone would not support this over an 8hr period, precip is WAY to light... Long Island is where this storm is, and a lot of people of setting themselves up for a white rain disappointment .3 to .4 wouldn't be the full 3 to 4 inches, but at least you would get some accumulation on colder surfaces. During the day with strong late march sun angle, it would be all white rain. At night at least you get a little accumulation. You're not accurate at all when you say it won't accumulate ANY better at night. If the temp is down to 32 and there's no sun angle to deal with at all, you WILL get some accumulation on grass and car tops with light snow. I've seen it happen many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:30 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: central park will get 3 inches imo Sent from MAM No way, not unless the modeling is way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 This thread may not be the place for it. However, I thought it was quite interesting and worth mentioning considering all of our model discussions in here. 96-114 hours from now...when the major models EURO/GFS are usually in the same galaxy...the EURO is giving the entire southern half of Michigan 2 feet whereas the GFS gives them not a flake. We obviously miss a lot of these differences when they aren't in our neck of the woods, but I was just laughing how we would all be going bananas if these models had the NYC metro area getting 2 feet+ on one major model vs not even a flurry on the other just 4- 4.5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 6:59 PM, Thunder7842 said: .3 to .4 wouldn't be the full 3 to 4 inches, but at least you would get some accumulation on colder surfaces. During the day with strong late march sun angle, it would be all white rain. At night at least you get a little accumulation. You're not accurate at all when you say it won't accumulate ANY better at night. If the temp is down to 32 and there's no sun angle to deal with at all, you WILL get some accumulation on grass and car tops with light snow. I've seen it happen many times. guess we're gonna find out, we'll revisit the discussion tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html It's amazing how much this storm explodes when it gets north of NE in to Canada. This baby drops down to 948mb. I couldn't imagine experiencing a blizzard with a system that deep. Has to be just awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On 3/20/2016 at 7:01 PM, IsentropicLift said: No way, not unless the modeling is way off. What? Every model has 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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