IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The NAVGEM does one of the strangest things I've ever seen. It develops the SLP which appears to be heading OTS And then it redevelops closer to the coast. That's sort of in line with what the Euro and GGEM had at times. Typically it's the other way around, but i'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I actually could see this, with the ULL transfering to the weak coastal, but you just don't have enough blocking in place IMO. In any event, the #2 analog over the East at 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 8:33 PM, ag3 said: Yeah. Let's pull the plug because the 18z NAM has nothing. Unreal. The big boys except the gfs have a few inches for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 8:53 PM, IsentropicLift said: I actually could see this, with the ULL transfering to the weak coastal, but you just don't have enough blocking in place IMO. In any event, the #2 analog over the East at 60hrs. What does this analog mean exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 8:54 PM, Snow88 said: Unreal. The big boys except the gfs have a few inches for coastal areas. That's because if it's not snowing where you live, then who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 8:56 PM, IsentropicLift said: That's because if it's not snowing where you live, then who cares. I mean we have seen major shifts a day before an event. Seeing the eps members tucked in areca good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 8:59 PM, Snow88 said: I mean we have seen major shifts a day before an event. Seeing the eps members tucked in areca good sign. I'm not giving up, but I can't be excited about Long Island getting another storm, especially when I'm sitting near 60% of my annual average in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Add the 18z RGEM to the list of models that look like garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 8:59 PM, Snow88 said: I mean we have seen major shifts a day before an event. Seeing the eps members tucked in areca good sign. Was it a good sign yesterday when the mean and cluster was tucked into the coast? PB still going 12-18 for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 the brams model,still showing the way.been consistent for 4 straight days with the same solution and n.y.c does really well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 9:03 PM, Allsnow said: Was it a good sign yesterday when the mean and cluster was tucked into the coast? PB still going 12-18 for the area? Tucked into coast is rain for you, me and Anthony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 9:12 PM, ag3 said: Tucked into coast is rain for you, me and Anthony. Agree. But his post was implying that we should see a trend west then if the members and the mean are tucked in. We got the exact opposite from 12z yesterday with a weak and further east solution at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It's almost game over but we are on life support for sure for a major winter storm. This is looking like a nuisance snow event 2-4 with lollies of 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 so we have the brams,ukie,cmc and russian models vs the gfs,nam,euro and navgem model. a.t.m it makes no sense to pick apart any model or trend.the spread is still wide open here for all of us,by tomm morning we might know how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 http://digital.weather.gov/ WE can do 60 miles with a positive shift.....No sweat then lets see what the numbers come in as Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Time for the GFS now to give the knockout punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 9:26 PM, BxWeatherwatcher said: so we have the brams,ukie,cmc and russian models vs the gfs,nam,euro and navgem model. a.t.m it makes no sense to pick apart any model or trend.the spread is still wide open here for all of us,by tomm morning we might know how this plays out. 12z navgem was good. 15-20mm of precip from the coastal for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 9:28 PM, ag3 said: 12z navgem was good. 15-20mm of precip from the coastal for NYC. yeah it's not too bad,the srefs are looking up as well.overall i'm pretty content where we stand as of right now,we already know it's not a cutter or a hugger so it's already a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 8:05 PM, weathermedic said: NWS OKX going with this That's pretty bullish IMO. To me this is a 2-4" paste job of basically white slurpee on the ground and perhaps spots on the roads. Still fun to read the posts from the hopeful and dreamers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Lemme Guess Gfs has 6-12 .....flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 GFS looks a bit more north up to 36 hours and a better low placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 9:41 PM, nyblizz44 said: Lemme Guess Gfs has 6-12 .....flakes? It's decent for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Gfs improved from 12z for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Details folks, what r we looking at GFS wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Definitely improved from previous runs, especially for NYC and LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 A general 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Looks like 2-4/3-6 is a good call right now for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 2-4 for nyc with more towards LI on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Gefs also is better, west of 12z waiting on 24 HR precipitation to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 On 3/18/2016 at 10:00 PM, Snow88 said: Looks like 2-4/3-6 is a good call right now for the coast. A lot of which will be falling during the day. Ant, we get you love Snow but you gotta know when to stop being so darn stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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