Yanksfan Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 8:47 PM, EastonSN+ said: Now I am concerned this thing keeps trending west. That's why I'm hoping for a full fledged phase. If that were to happen even with a coastal hugger route an intense storm would still most likely be snow with dynamics at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 NYC proper will only see problems if the SLP passes less than 50 miles from the NJ coast. In which case, almost this whole area will thump, then dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 October 2011 is a good analog City got very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 It can't go too far west with the position of the block, the 50/50 and also the trough orientation. Chill out. NYC is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 9:02 PM, IsentropicLift said: Nope, I'm about a 25 mile drive from the GWB. Not far at all. The differences though between where I live and a few miles Southeast can be tremendous because I'm at the base of the hills. Yeah, elevation increases rapidly around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 2/12/06 is the #1 analog over the East at 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 9:09 PM, ag3 said: It can't go too far west with the position of the block, the 50/50 and also the trough orientation. Chill out. NYC is fine. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 If I were to guess for a jackpot, Mahopac, NY or Danbury, CT could be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 9:02 PM, IsentropicLift said: Nope, I'm about a 25 mile drive from the GWB. Not far at all. The differences though between where I live and a few miles Southeast can be tremendous because I'm at the base of the hills. I'm at 340 my parents in west orange at the very top of the hill are at 410 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 9:09 PM, ag3 said: It can't go too far west with the position of the block, the 50/50 and also the trough orientation. Chill out. NYC is fine. You really can't make that a definitive statement at this range. We're still so far out that this could end up being an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=brams&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pr06&HH=84&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= pop goes the weasel!!..12z brams model,very consistent and very overlooked.philly up to boston crushed!!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 NAVGEM for the win... and this is typically the most progressive model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 9:01 PM, ag3 said: Calm down. NYC is fine. At the moment yes but 3 days out any thing can happen. I think coastal hugger is much more likely than OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 18z GFS on its way. Let's see if it plays catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Or maybe its the leader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 9:34 PM, winterwarlock said: Or maybe its the leaderHighly doubt that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Discuss the storm. Anything else is getting deleted. No more warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 9:07 PM, Allsnow said: October 2011 is a good analog City got very little The big difference is that ocean temps are still in the mid to upper 50s in late October which is the big reason why the immediate coast did not do well in 10/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 9:12 PM, IsentropicLift said: You really can't make that a definitive statement at this range. We're still so far out that this could end up being an inland runner. Yes I can. OTS is the biggest threat still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 8:59 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: You think Orange County is part of NYC area? Parts of Orange County are close to 100 miles away from NYC What? lol.. Im in Middletown and im 55 miles on the dot to Manhattan. Thats as the birds fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Did the 18 Z Goofus start wakin up?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 18z GFS is east. Further east than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 9:52 PM, ag3 said: Yes I can. OTS is the biggest threat still. And just as I type this, GFS is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 9:53 PM, nyblizz44 said: Did the 18 Z Goofus start wakin up?? Scrapes the coast. White rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 9:53 PM, nyblizz44 said: Did the 18 Z Goofus start wakin up?? Nope. East of 12z. Scrapes NYC. Better east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 18 z goofus always does something weird like this! From this range in time the euro is much more reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Well, the GFS can still end up being right. NAM was unimpressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 10:00 PM, Morris said: Well, the GFS can still end up being right. NAM was unimpressive as well. NAM at least gave most places a solid 4 to 5 inch snowfall. Much better than 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 10:00 PM, Morris said: Well, the GFS can still end up being right. NAM was unimpressive as well. Once again it seems like it's America vs the world when it comes to weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS, 60+ Hr NAM.... vs euro, ukie, eps, 80% of ensemble support, JMA, and partially the GGEM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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