IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:29 PM, Allsnow said: 00z Monday 994 over acy central pa and upstate NY crushed That convection on the SE side is really robbing the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 981mb in the Gulf of Maine. All of 95 has mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:31 PM, IsentropicLift said: That convection on the SE side is really robbing the CCB. 988 over Boston. Should have been a crush job for the interior areas of the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:34 PM, Allsnow said: 988 over Boston. Should have been a crush job for the interior areas of the northeast If I remember correctly didn't the blizzard have that same double barreled low setup which ended up being correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:34 PM, IsentropicLift said: If I remember correctly didn't the blizzard have that same double barreled low setup which ended up being correct? Ukie and euro are in agreement that's all I need to see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GGEM weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:34 PM, IsentropicLift said: If I remember correctly didn't the blizzard have that same double barreled low setup which ended up being correct? Ggem is the only model that shows this two low set up, it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:39 PM, Allsnow said: Ggem is the only model that shows this two low set up, it's wrong The GFS and Euro have both shown it at times over the last several days. Personally I think it's convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I wouldn't be shocked at all if the GFS is completely lost right now and the rest of the global models continue to amplify this system. That would be awesome of not for the fact that there is a lack of deepening once the system reaches our latitude. Ideally, you'd want a mature cyclone in the upper 980's so that thermals can drop and dynamics can really go off in the CCB. As of right now that doesn't seem to be likely until the system is past our region. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:39 PM, Allsnow said: Ggem is the only model that shows this two low set up, it's wrongThat is a classic convective feedback signature. It's putting the 2nd surface low over where it expects the convection to be. Yea it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GGEM has been downright horrendous this winter. Hopefully we can just toss this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ukie looks like an OBX to ACK to Gulf of Maine track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:41 PM, IsentropicLift said: The GFS and Euro have both shown it at times over the last several days. Personally I think it's convective feedback.Usually just look at the convective precip parameter, if you see the surface reflection following the convective streaks then you can pretty much discount the placement Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 This makes no sense anyway, a 987mb south of LI and nearly nothing to the West of the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Interior does well on the Ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Good that the Ukie came in a little east compared to last night's run. I assume this run would mean no mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:51 PM, ag3 said: Interior does well on the Ggem. And it's severely underdone because of the feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:53 PM, IsentropicLift said: And it's severely underdone because of the feedback issues. Still 6"+ for the snow starved areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:53 PM, Thunder7842 said: Good that the Ukie came in a little east compared to last night's run. I assume this run would mean no mixing issues. You can't tell any of that until we're within 72 hours and you can get higher res maps at better intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:53 PM, ag3 said: Still 6"+ for the snow starved areas. My point was if not for the feedback issues, the GGEM would have shown feet of snow for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:54 PM, IsentropicLift said: You can't tell any of that until we're within 72 hours and you can get higher res maps at better intervals. I can tell the track is offshore between OBX and ACK. Otherwise the details will remain a mystery until 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12z GEFS mean wetter than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:55 PM, Rjay said: I can tell the track is offshore between OBX and ACK. Otherwise the details will remain a mystery until 72 hours out. I was referring to thermal profiles. He said no mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 4:56 PM, IsentropicLift said: I was referring to thermal profiles. He said no mixing issues. Or at least less mixing issues than last night's run, since this run is more to the east. Last night's run looked too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 CRAS (fwiw) slows everything down and looks like it merges all the 500mb energy into one intense coastal late Sunday night into Monday. Later start, better energy consolidation, better end result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GGEM closer look, still unsure how a low centered just south of Long Island has such a dry western shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12z GGEM ensemble mean is gorgeous. SLP passes right over the BM with 1"+ LE from Central PA all the way up the coast into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 On 3/17/2016 at 5:09 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GGEM closer look, still unsure how a low centered just south of Long Island has such a dry western shield Dry western shield??? Thats 1- 1.5 feet of snow for the interior...just a dryslot near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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