Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 If the area is just grazed by the storm with no heavy precip or banding it would rain for the city BL temp around 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Today's trends have bought us , if not an MECS, at least 2 fun days of model watching and discussion, quite the last hurrah, if it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 EPS is stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 what is it showing?Most members are split at 00z Monday between the low tracking off the Delmarva, or NC coast, however by 06z Monday most memebrs are in agreement of the low being stationed somewhere south or just south east of Long Island... It's just a timing issue between members IMOEdit: also both the mean/control have accumulating snow, the control dropped 10+ area wide with higher amounts in extreme LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Eps is a foot plus for our area. You couldn't get a better look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Number one CIPS analog is 2/12/06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z PARA GFS FWIW is almost identical to 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 OKX is stating models are coming together putting it at the 40/70 benchmark with cold air in place... Wife and I booked our trip back to Greece yesterday... snow is the last thing on my mind. Winter's last hurrah on the first day of Spring would be okay with me though. For one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Could be some big winds and coastal problems if anymore west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Pretty impressive clusters near the bench mark for 5+ days out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Pretty impressive clusters near the bench mark for 5+ days out.... It's 4-5 days out, not 5+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Although nam is still out of range, it shows a near perfect blocking signal over Ontario area, which will be an important feature to watch as to what happens west of the LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Although nam is still out of range, it shows a near perfect blocking signal over Ontario area, which will be an important feature to watch as to what happens west of the LP To me the most important feature is the 50/50 low and how quickly it escapes to the NE. We need it to get out of the way in time so heights can rise on the EC to get this storm to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 To me the most important feature is the 50/50 low and how quickly it escapes to the NE. We need it to get out of the way in time so heights can rise on the EC to get this storm to come up the coast.We would also need the western ridge to stay intacted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 We would also need the western ridge to stay intacted I've learned so much from this board over the years. And I've learned that shorter wave lengths in March mean we don't really need a stout western ridge. I think Don S posted a comparison last season about a negative PNA vs a positive PNA for March snowstorms in our area if anyone wants to dig it up. With that said, in this particular case we do need the western ridge IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 lol GFS No consistency.. Smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GFS east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 No consistency.. Smh. What are you talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 What are you talking about What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 What are you talking about? What kind of consistency are you expecting from an operational model at 100+ hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 What kind of consistency are you expecting from an operational model at 100+ hours? I simply stated no consistency between the model runs. I never said I was expecting a full force blizzard every model run till the 21st expecting anything from it, quit the bs.. I wasn't born yesterday I know models will flip around this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I simply stated no consistency between the model runs. I never said I was expecting a full force blizzard every model run till the 21st expecting anything from it, quit the bs.. I wasn't born yesterday I know models will flip around this far out. And I wholeheartedly disagree. It was a 75-100 mile difference at the surface at 100+ hours out, and both 12z and 18z were within the spread of the 12z GEFS. Solutions don't lock in at 100 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 no one knows for sure what happened to the 18Z GFS OP - a telling sign will be if the GEFS holds on to the 12Z ideas or not - to fully analyse what might have happened a MET would have to see exactly what data was fed into it and how it differed from 12Z and if any of the same data was missing for whatever reason - very complex......... heh, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 read this -- http://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/584862/how-do-weather-models-work- The weather models do not produce perfect forecasts, mainly for two reasons. The first reason is related to the old adage “garbage in, garbage out.” If the data we feed into the weather models is wrong, than the forecast will be wrong. Which is it? Bad data or convective feedback? 2 totally different issues. It doesn't look convective feedback to me, you normally see double barreled low structures or multiple lows when it does that. And what would you consider "bad" data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 read this -- http://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/584862/how-do-weather-models-work- dude, lol You think that someone should go and analyze the tens of thousands of observational inputs that were used to initialize a particular run and compare them to the tens of thousands of observational inputs used to initialize the prior run, and see what the differences are, and use that to determine why the latest run moved 75 miles at day 4.5? what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 no one knows for sure unless we get official word from the folks in charge of running the models ...........the data fed into it was different then what was fed into it at 12Z They do monitor the observational data for critical quantity shortages, you can see it here http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/realtime/gfs/t18z/index.shtml. But as far as the data being different...of course it's different. It's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Navgem is west. Big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GEFS? 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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