Historic 2000's Snows Favoring Coast Over Interior

[LaxSki]

How about the fact that I have about 50" at our house in Northwestern Suffolk county on LI and our Condo at 2000' at Mt Snow Vt has about the same.

[easternsnowman]

We have a house in northern Wayne County at 1600'. The average annual snowfall is estimated in the 70-75" range, so about two feet higher than Scranton due to latitude and elevation. A lot of clippers and rotting lake effect produce significantly more at our place than AVP. Mt. Ararat, the highest point in the area at 2657', must average close to 90" per season.

The area has seen very little snow in recent years. Only 10-20" has fallen in that region this season, which must be a record. The suburbs of NYC did just as well or better in 15-16, 13-14, 10-11, and 09-10, which was unheard of when I was younger.

Yes I got close to 25 inches this year and I live close by there with over 1200 ft elevation. I believe my average is in the 65 to 70 inch range, last 2 years we did well in snowfall but I do believe some of the far north and west burbs of NYC did just as well as they did in the 2010-11 season and in 09-10 there were places in north MD that got around 100 inches much more than us..

[ORH_wxman]

Those AVP totals from '03-'04 to '05-'06 look suspect.

[easternsnowman]

Those AVP totals from '03-'04 to '05-'06 look suspect.

It seems like the Binghamton NWS spotters underestimate snowfall in northeastern pa.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

We have a house in northern Wayne County at 1600'. The average annual snowfall is estimated in the 70-75" range, so about two feet higher than Scranton due to latitude and elevation. A lot of clippers and rotting lake effect produce significantly more at our place than AVP. Mt. Ararat, the highest point in the area at 2657', must average close to 90" per season.

The area has seen very little snow in recent years. Only 10-20" has fallen in that region this season, which must be a record. The suburbs of NYC did just as well or better in 15-16, 13-14, 10-11, and 09-10, which was unheard of when I was younger.

My uncle has a house a few miles Nw in Susquehanna county at 1900' and they had almost nothing as well. Elk mountain ski resort with a summit almost 2,700' closed weeks ago their earliest closing ever

I will say growing up going up there I remember snow packs so deep they would be over my head. Especially early and mid 90s winters. They used to get absolutely crushed!!!!!!!!! They got like 40" during the 93 super storm being high enough and just in the access of heaviest snow. My uncle has pics of a snow drift up to the second story of the barn. And he had to cross country ski to the main road and hitch hike out to get to Scranton to get a bus back to NY because their dirt road had been impassable for days. And this is the kind of guy who is very meh about stuff like that.

[nzucker]

My uncle has a house a few miles Nw in Susquehanna county at 1900' and they had almost nothing as well. Elk mountain ski resort with a summit almost 2,700' closed weeks ago their earliest closing ever

I will say growing up going up there I remember snow packs so deep they would be over my head. Especially early and mid 90s winters. They used to get absolutely crushed!!!!!!!!! They got like 40" during the 93 super storm being high enough and just in the access of heaviest snow. My uncle has pics of a snow drift up to the second story of the barn. And he had to cross country ski to the main road and hitch hike out to get to Scranton to get a bus back to NY because their dirt road had been impassable for days. And this is the kind of guy who is very meh about stuff like that.

92-93/93-94 were huge in NE PA. Had some 3-4' depths those years.

Got like 3" last night, maybe a touch more.

[Guest Pamela]

Though places like Long Island have had a very good run snow wise...there is not the slightest doubt in my mind that in the long run, Albany & Scranton will record more snow than any spot on Long Island...LI might beat them out from time to time (especially AVP)...but, barring a very significant shift downwards in mean temperatures across Eastern N. America...a continuation of what we saw this winter does not seem feasible.  What happened this last winter at AVP & ALB was essentially a fluke bad year.

 

Truth be told, Albany is not really in an ideal spot for snow.  They catch almost no lake effect and the Helderberg Escarpments, the Taconics, & the Berkshires keep a good deal of snow away from the Albany area (that is, down by the airport itself...which is under 300' a.s.l., IIRC)  Note the infamous 12/11/1992 event...6 inches at Albany and 48 inches in Berkshire County, Massachusetts (up towards Peru and Greylock itself, IIRC). The great downsloping / shadow storm it was known as in Albany.   Still, the mean is around 5 feet / 60 inches...and I see no reason why a return to that average should not be forthcoming.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Though places like Long Island have had a very good run snow wise...there is not the slightest doubt in my mind that in the long run, Albany & Scranton will record more snow than any spot on Long Island...LI might beat them out from time to time (especially AVP)...but, barring a very significant shift downwards in mean temperatures across Eastern N. America...a continuation of what we saw this winter does not seem feasible. What happened this last winter at AVP & ALB was essentially a fluke bad year.

Truth be told, Albany is not really in an ideal spot for snow. They catch almost no lake effect and the Helderberg Escarpments, the Taconics, & the Berkshires keep a good deal of snow away from the Albany area (that is, down by the airport itself...which is under 300' a.s.l., IIRC) Note the infamous 12/11/1992 event...6 inches at Albany and 48 inches in Berkshire County, Massachusetts (up towards Peru and Greylock itself, IIRC). The great downsloping / shadow storm it was known as in Albany. Still, the mean is around 5 feet / 60 inches...and I see no reason why a return to that average should not be forthcoming.

While I agree, we cannot discount a shift in actually climate. It's not like we are talking one winter here but rather an extended period. Let's see how long it lasts

[Guest Pamela]

While I agree, we cannot discount a shift in actually climate. It's not like we are talking one winter here but rather an extended period. Let's see how long it lasts

 

The future is always very uncertain; I will not dispute that.  But I think given a continuation of fairly similar precipitation & thermal patterns that were observed during the 20th century, odds are that AVP & ALB will generally outsnow OKX / Upton most of the time. 

[easternsnowman]

I live north of Scranton in a more rural area  and have about 1200 ft elevation also I usually get one and a half times more snow than the AVP area and run 4 to 5 degrees cooler.

[ORH_wxman]

While I agree, we cannot discount a shift in actually climate. It's not like we are talking one winter here but rather an extended period. Let's see how long it lasts

 

It won't last that long...if anything, as the climate warms, it would argue for marginal snow climates such as the mid-atlantic coast to see a decrease in snowfall more rapidly than the interior northeast. That hasn't happened yet...mostly because (despite this winter's excessive warmth) winters in the mid-latitudes have not substantially warmed since the late 1980s...and that includes the CONUS:

 

 

 

 

The lack of mid-latitude warming in the winter has been traced back to increased blocking over that period starting into the late 80s/early 90s.

 

This was a discussed in a paper several years ago by Judah Cohen:

 

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/Cohenetal_GRL2012.pdf

[Guest Pamela]

It won't last that long...if anything, as the climate warms, it would argue for marginal snow climates such as the mid-atlantic coast to see a decrease in snowfall more rapidly than the interior northeast. That hasn't happened yet...mostly because (despite this winter's excessive warmth) winters in the mid-latitudes have not substantially warmed since the late 1980s...and that includes the CONUS:

 

 

 

 

The lack of mid-latitude warming in the winter has been traced back to increased blocking over that period starting into the late 80s/early 90s.

 

This was a discussed in a paper several years ago by Judah Cohen:

 

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/Cohenetal_GRL2012.pdf

 

I am happy to see you...just last night; after making several posts...I was pondering the push back that I might receive from some in this forum...I was considering utilizing the "other than Ludlum and the Worcester WxMan...no one has more insight than myself into the climatological machinations of the region"...but I demurred. 

[ORH_wxman]

I am happy to see you...just last night; after making several posts...I was pondering the push back that I might receive from some in this forum...I was considering utilizing the "other than Ludlum and the Worcester WxMan...no one has more insight than myself into the climatological machinations of the region"...but I demurred. 

 

I should add...despite the lack of warming during winters over the past 25+ years...this in itself is not the sole cause of the mid-atlantic seeing such prolific snow anomalies versus the interior. Much of it is probably some dumb luck...or for those who hate the term "luck"...random natural variability in the storm track. Some years, the excessive blocking dictated it like 2009-2010. But other years like 2013-2014, it was just random variance...a cold -EPO/+NAO pattern would have typically favored the interior Northeast to see higher snowfall anomalies versus the coast, but it did not happen due to small nuances in the storm track. We had several suppressed storms and then several great lake cutters that winter with very few storms in between...maybe the 2/13-2/14 storm was the only one.

 

There will eventually be a return to a period of more coastal hugger tracks that bury places like BGM, ALB, AVP and even NW NJ and lower Hudson Valley while it is pouring rain in NYC and PHL.

[Guest Pamela]

I should add...despite the lack of warming during winters over the past 25+ years...this in itself is not the sole cause of the mid-atlantic seeing such prolific snow anomalies versus the interior. Much of it is probably some dumb luck...or for those who hate the term "luck"...random natural variability in the storm track. Some years, the excessive blocking dictated it like 2009-2010. But other years like 2013-2014, it was just random variance...a cold -EPO/+NAO pattern would have typically favored the interior Northeast to see higher snowfall anomalies versus the coast, but it did not happen due to small nuances in the storm track. We had several suppressed storms and then several great lake cutters that winter with very few storms in between...maybe the 2/13-2/14 storm was the only one.

 

There will eventually be a return to a period of more coastal hugger tracks that bury places like BGM, ALB, AVP and even NW NJ and lower Hudson Valley while it is pouring rain in NYC and PHL.

 

There has been an enormous amount of luck involved since Logan first went wild in 1992-93...and it spread to LI in 1993-94.

[Stash]

Good thoughts about our area, and agree with you that eventually Albany will return to its norm for snowfall!  Since it's a weatherboard, I'll share some quick thoughts on its spot for snow.  Albany actually averages what many other non-elevated, non lake effect places in Upstate NY average.  Some cities such as Elmira, Downtown Binghamton (not the airport which is 800 feet higher in elevation and has the "official" records for the city), and parts of the Niagara frontier average a bit less than KALB.  The downsloping noreaster in '92 certainly happened, but is more of an exception.  It takes a screaming east wind to significantly downslope the city, and the Helderbergs to the West have little effect on the city's snow (but the Helderbergs themselves can benefit some from their elevation).  The Helderbergs will also sometimes warm the city up in the Summer on southwest winds however.  The biggest "shadow" area for snow in ENY is in parts of Rensselaer and Washington counties further east, which can be downsloped off the Greens on more of a east-northeastern wind direction.

 

 

Though places like Long Island have had a very good run snow wise...there is not the slightest doubt in my mind that in the long run, Albany & Scranton will record more snow than any spot on Long Island...LI might beat them out from time to time (especially AVP)...but, barring a very significant shift downwards in mean temperatures across Eastern N. America...a continuation of what we saw this winter does not seem feasible.  What happened this last winter at AVP & ALB was essentially a fluke bad year.

 

Truth be told, Albany is not really in an ideal spot for snow.  They catch almost no lake effect and the Helderberg Escarpments, the Taconics, & the Berkshires keep a good deal of snow away from the Albany area (that is, down by the airport itself...which is under 300' a.s.l., IIRC)  Note the infamous 12/11/1992 event...6 inches at Albany and 48 inches in Berkshire County, Massachusetts (up towards Peru and Greylock itself, IIRC). The great downsloping / shadow storm it was known as in Albany.   Still, the mean is around 5 feet / 60 inches...and I see no reason why a return to that average should not be forthcoming.

[Guest Pamela]

Good thoughts about our area, and agree with you that eventually Albany will return to its norm for snowfall!  Since it's a weatherboard, I'll share some quick thoughts on its spot for snow.  Albany actually averages what many other non-elevated, non lake effect places in Upstate NY average.  Some cities such as Elmira, Downtown Binghamton (not the airport which is 800 feet higher in elevation and has the "official" records for the city), and parts of the Niagara frontier average a bit less than KALB.  The downsloping noreaster in '92 certainly happened, but is more of an exception.  It takes a screaming east wind to significantly downslope the city, and the Helderbergs to the West have little effect on the city's snow (but the Helderbergs themselves can benefit some from their elevation).  The Helderbergs will also sometimes warm the city up in the Summer on southwest winds however.  The biggest "shadow" area for snow in ENY is in parts of Rensselaer and Washington counties further east, which can be downsloped off the Greens on more of a east-northeastern wind direction.

 

There was a time when I thought of Albany as a veritable "Snow Heaven"...that 1982-83 winter certainly influenced my opinion...aided & abetted by that 2 foot job on 1/15/83...and about 18 inches more around 2/7/83...the 8 inches you guys picked up on 4/20/83 was the piece de resistance. 

 

But of course, like most non lake effect stations Upstate...Albany is pretty mediocre relative to the norm.

 

Nice point on the difference between the town of Binghamton & Broome County Airport...as Cole Porter would say, "Night & Day".

 

Those in the mid-Hudson Valley have snowy winters...but, as a general rule...travel either east or west of there and your annual average goes up...mostly as a product of increase in altitude or proximity to Lakes Ontario & Erie.

[ORH_wxman]

Good thoughts about our area, and agree with you that eventually Albany will return to its norm for snowfall!  Since it's a weatherboard, I'll share some quick thoughts on its spot for snow.  Albany actually averages what many other non-elevated, non lake effect places in Upstate NY average.  Some cities such as Elmira, Downtown Binghamton (not the airport which is 800 feet higher in elevation and has the "official" records for the city), and parts of the Niagara frontier average a bit less than KALB.  The downsloping noreaster in '92 certainly happened, but is more of an exception.  It takes a screaming east wind to significantly downslope the city, and the Helderbergs to the West have little effect on the city's snow (but the Helderbergs themselves can benefit some from their elevation).  The Helderbergs will also sometimes warm the city up in the Summer on southwest winds however.  The biggest "shadow" area for snow in ENY is in parts of Rensselaer and Washington counties further east, which can be downsloped off the Greens on more of a east-northeastern wind direction.

 

 

Downtown BGM is probably still not bad...the airport is obviously really good averaging 84" per year, but downtown is probably still in the 60s. They get a lot of multi-band LES leftovers. But I agree with your point on the whole...Elmira actually might be quite a bit worse than ALB. They are an absolute snowhole there...probably barely averaging 50".

 

At my Alma Mater in Ithaca, NY the average was about 66-67" per year...which was a bit more than KALB, but we were up above the city of Ithaca. About 400 feet higher. The city itself may have averaged a good 6-8" less.

[Guest Pamela]

Downtown BGM is probably still not bad...the airport is obviously really good averaging 84" per year, but downtown is probably still in the 60s. They get a lot of multi-band LES leftovers. But I agree with your point on the whole...Elmira actually might be quite a bit worse than ALB. They are an absolute snowhole there...probably barely averaging 50".

 

At my Alma Mater in Ithaca, NY the average was about 66-67" per year...which was a bit more than KALB, but we were up above the city of Ithaca. About 400 feet higher. The city itself may have averaged a good 6-8" less.

 

Elmira is the worst snow town in western NY...save for the area north of Buffalo...up near Niagara Falls.  Elmira is bad in almost the same way Williamsport, Pennsylvania is bad.

[Guest Pamela]

Elmira is the worst snow town in western NY...save for the area north of Buffalo...up near Niagara Falls.

 

Just to the west of Elmira...a secondary max (the primary being the Tug Hill Plateau) in the state of NY sets up...New Albion...up on that plateau SW of Buffalo...seems to be the epicenter.

 

And just as Williamsport and Elmira are notoriously bad...New Albion and Bradford PA are amazingly snowy...being up in the stratosphere helps.

[bluewave]

I should add...despite the lack of warming during winters over the past 25+ years...this in itself is not the sole cause of the mid-atlantic seeing such prolific snow anomalies versus the interior. Much of it is probably some dumb luck...or for those who hate the term "luck"...random natural variability in the storm track. Some years, the excessive blocking dictated it like 2009-2010. But other years like 2013-2014, it was just random variance...a cold -EPO/+NAO pattern would have typically favored the interior Northeast to see higher snowfall anomalies versus the coast, but it did not happen due to small nuances in the storm track. We had several suppressed storms and then several great lake cutters that winter with very few storms in between...maybe the 2/13-2/14 storm was the only one.

 

There will eventually be a return to a period of more coastal hugger tracks that bury places like BGM, ALB, AVP and even NW NJ and lower Hudson Valley while it is pouring rain in NYC and PHL.

 

It will really depend on what happens in the future with in regard to the extreme blocking patterns that we have been

experiencing in the 2000's. Those coastal hugger tracks that were common in the past and delivered some

of the heaviest snows to the interior occurred in a era of weaker blocking compared to today.

 

Even in a year like 13-14, the record 500 mb ridge near Alaska and trough couplet over the Great Lakes

let the coast to have similar totals to the interior. This was probably a result of enough suppression

in some storm tracks to allow the coast to stay competitive with the interior.

 

This January and February featured record 500 mb heights near the pole and the corresponding 

trough over the SE US in the means. So it was no surprise that the coast did so much better

than the NW burbs.

 

You can also see how the weaker block and downstream trough in the 93-94

winter compared to 13-14 produced the traditional heavier snows in the interior and 

lighter at the coast that was common during that era. There wasn't too much

suppression compared to now so that storm around 1/17/94 hugged

the coast with rain and heavy snows over Eastern PA.

 

With the exception of 02-03, the interior needed weaker blocking years

like 01-02, 06-07,07-08, and 11-12 to beat the coast in seasonal

snowfall during the 2000's.

 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

The increased blocking definitely played a role in some years (particularly years like 2009-2010), but I am far from convinced it was the primary reason...especially in a year like '13-'14 where we weren't in some big -NAO block...we had multiple Lake Cutters that winter too...so there were storms tracks on both sides of the equation...nuances that are beyond the scope of the long wave pattern could have easily made those interior snowstorms.

[Sundog]

The increased blocking definitely played a role in some years (particularly years like 2009-2010), but I am far from convinced it was the primary reason...especially in a year like '13-'14 where we weren't in some big -NAO block...we had multiple Lake Cutters that winter too...so there were storms tracks on both sides of the equation...nuances that are beyond the scope of the long wave pattern could have easily made those interior snowstorms.

I thought I read/heard that increased blocking is partly a product of the warming Arctic. Is this correct?

[ORH_wxman]

I thought I read/heard that increased blocking is partly a product of the warming Arctic. Is this correct?

 

It's a debatable subject in the literature. There is one school of thought...like from Francis et al...that says it has increased...and then there is another school...like from Barnes et al....that was critical in the way they (Francis et al) measured blocking since they used mainly height anomalies and not a full reversal of wind fields, and showed in their own more comprehensive analysis that blocking had not increased. There is mixed literature on whether blocking will become more prevalent in the future or less. Cohen et al has argued that less sea ice has increased autumn Siberian snowfall and thus increased the chances of a -AO winter...partly the reason he explains that mid-latitude winters show no warming trend in the past 25-30 years. Though the big -AO patterns have been largely absent since the 2012-2013 winter.

 

Regardless of which school of thought you side with, the heights themselves have certainly gotten higher, and the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 saw incredible blocking over the North Pacific no matter which definition you use...even despite the positive AO. There is plenty of debate on why that pattern set up as well. 

 

The reason I'm skeptical of the claim that recent blocking is the main driver for the lack of interior snowfalls is that the dominant feature of coastal Mid-Atlantic snowfalls is the 50/50 low or similar feature...usually you want a -NAO for this because it "holds" it in place easier. Otherwise you just hoping for random variance to have some sort of feature there or something close enough to it to create cold air drain onto the coastal plain. We've had a good number of storms where that fortunate variance played out despite a less than ideal pattern up that way....particularly since 2012-2013 which was the last -NAO winter we had. The good Pacific blocking certainly explains the cold we had in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, but it doesn't entirely explain the lack of interior snowstorms in my book...I attribute that to small scale nuances beyond the scope of the large scale -EPO/+NAO pattern...save maybe that 3 week stretch last winter where there was almost a standing PNA+ wave which was in dead perfect position for eastern New England...so almost every storm was hitting the same area. But of course the winter was a lot longer than just 3 weeks. There were several suppressed storms too that winter and some cutters in January before the snowy period commenced. And also, who is to say that next time that standing PNA pattern doesn't set up 200 miles west? Is there anything explicit in the arctic pattern that argues it needs to set up there again in the future? I cannot find a reason why the next -EPO/+PNA/+NAO pattern has to favor the coast again.

 

 

This isn't claiming that blocking had zero affect in the past 15 years...it certainly did. Esp years like 2009-2010 like I mentioned previously. I just think it hasn't been the primary driver (i.e. explaining over 50% of the variance)

 

Again, my guess is we'll see things begin to even out at some point where the interior cleans up more relative to the coast on a few storms.

[nzucker]

As ORH says, as the climate warms more, places near the coast will experience a decline in snowfall just as PDX/SEA/RIC, all marginal coastal locations, have. The drop in snowfall that saw Washington, DC with a string of single digit-winters will move up the coast to New York City.

Most climate models, assuming continuing, moderate warming, show an increase in snowfall for NNE and the interior while the coast sees a decrease in snowfall due to marginal temps. A storm that 20 years ago would have been 32F and snow is 34F and rain in the new climate. There will also be more variance in snowfall, which seems to have already started, with some record-breaking seasons or storms, and more "ratter years."

[bluewave]

The increased blocking definitely played a role in some years (particularly years like 2009-2010), but I am far from convinced it was the primary reason...especially in a year like '13-'14 where we weren't in some big -NAO block...we had multiple Lake Cutters that winter too...so there were storms tracks on both sides of the equation...nuances that are beyond the scope of the long wave pattern could have easily made those interior snowstorms.

 

You don't need a big NAO block for heavy snows like we saw here in recent years. Blocking which impacts the storm

track can occur in areas extending from the Atlantic back across Canada and the pole to the Pacific.

The record Pacific blocking in recent years compensated for the lack of a strong -NAO. The end result

was still a storm track forced far enough SE to favor the coastal areas. As to how long this pattern

continues into the future, it's hard to say.

 

Yogi Berra — 'It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.'

[ORH_wxman]

You don't need a big NAO block for heavy snows like we saw here in recent years. Blocking which impacts the storm

track can occur in areas extending from the Atlantic back across Canada and the pole to the Pacific.

The record Pacific blocking in recent years compensated for the lack of a strong -NAO. The end result

was still a storm track forced far enough SE to favor the coastal areas. As to how long this pattern

continues into the future, it's hard to say.

 

Yogi Berra — 'It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.'

 

 

I didn't make that claim. Clearly heavy snows can occur without it...we have empirical evidence that it does (the past two winters...plus winters like 1960-1961). My argument is that these patterns aren't explicitly forced by the blocking itself...i.e. why won't the trough setup 100 miles west the next time a big N PAC block forms? There can still be huge blocking up north near the EPO region but the block occurs further west next time...combine that with another +NAO like the past few winters and you have yourself an inferior pattern for Mid-Atlantic coastal snowfall.

 

 

As I also mentioned, we had plenty of cutters and inland runners too....those could have been slightly different and produced for the interior more than they did...so on top of the actual blocking patterns that did occur (which I claim do not have to occur next time in the same fashion), they also experienced poor "luck" or natural variation on a scale smaller than the long wave pattern.

 

In short, the blocking patterns have affected them, but so has random luck/variance to make it "look" worse than it actually is.

[bluewave]

I didn't make that claim. Clearly heavy snows can occur without it...we have empirical evidence that it does (the past two winters...plus winters like 1960-1961). My argument is that these patterns aren't explicitly forced by the blocking itself...i.e. why won't the trough setup 100 miles west the next time a big N PAC block forms? There can still be huge blocking up north near the EPO region but the block occurs further west next time...combine that with another +NAO like the past few winters and you have yourself an inferior pattern for Mid-Atlantic coastal snowfall.

 

 

As I also mentioned, we had plenty of cutters and inland runners too....those could have been slightly different and produced for the interior more than they did...so on top of the actual blocking patterns that did occur (which I claim do not have to occur next time in the same fashion), they also experienced poor "luck" or natural variation on a scale smaller than the long wave pattern.

 

In short, the blocking patterns have affected them, but so has random luck/variance to make it "look" worse than it actually is.

 

Never said the nature of blocking or no blocking can't change in the future to impact snowfall differently than

it has during the last 16 seasons or so. Just that the intensity and location of the blocks since 2000 have favored

coastal sections to date. Don't really have the data yet to weigh in on how the future will play out.

[JBG]

I don't know if I posted this thought already. I am quite sure that hte 2015-6 winter favored the coast, by a lot. Is it possible that the large events recently have favored the coast but when you add in the "nickel and dime" events the interior usually does better? Certainly some large storms such as the one in the Ides of February in 2014 were much better for the interior.

[Rittenhouse]

On 4/7/2016 at 4:14 AM, nzucker said:

As ORH says, as the climate warms more, places near the coast will experience a decline in snowfall just as PDX/SEA/RIC, all marginal coastal locations, have. The drop in snowfall that saw Washington, DC with a string of single digit-winters will move up the coast to New York City.

Most climate models, assuming continuing, moderate warming, show an increase in snowfall for NNE and the interior while the coast sees a decrease in snowfall due to marginal temps. A storm that 20 years ago would have been 32F and snow is 34F and rain in the new climate. There will also be more variance in snowfall, which seems to have already started, with some record-breaking seasons or storms, and more "ratter years."

This seems a little off. A warmer climate will certainly shorten winter, but I don't think it will necessarily affect snowfall during January and February. The track of the low is more important for a mid-winter nor'easter. Of course, climate change also affects storm tracks. But if anything, it seems that the present climate favors coastal storm tracks.

If you read the diaries kept by people living in New England between the late 1700's and the mid-1800's, you'll notice that the main difference between now and then is that winter used to last much longer. Hence why there was already ice in the Delaware River when George Washington crossed it on Christmas Eve, 1776. Snowfall was not uncommon in October and May, even along the coast, during this era. It may be very well possible that although it snows less often now, when it does snow, the storms tend to be more intense for coastal locations.