weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 A pretty impressive piece of s/w energy is projected to move through during the afternoon on Sunday and will be associated with a very cold mid-level airmass (500mb temps <-20C) and very steeo mid-level lapse rates (8-9 C/KM!!!!!!!!). While moisture will be lacking (and this is the biggest cavet) if some instability can develop we could see some convective showers develop and perhaps produce some pea-hail. In fact, maybe some of the heavier showers could dump pea-hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Just look at this sounding!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Could get some decent gusts and a bit of hail. Interesting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Could get some decent gusts and a bit of hail. Interesting setup. The GFS has 850-500 lapse rates on the order of 8.5 C/KM...about as steep as you'll see here. I wish sfc dews were higher though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Signals of 50-65mph gusts on some of the soundings.. inverted V's Wild day. Storms possible Fri too..ending as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Signals of 50-65mph gusts on some of the soundings.. inverted V's Wild day. Storms possible Fri too..ending as snow no kidding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Friday could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The GFS has 850-500 lapse rates on the order of 8.5 C/KM...about as steep as you'll see here. I wish sfc dews were higher though From what I looked at on the midnight shift last night, the GFS was definitely more aggressive with warm front progress. The NAM kept us wedged in up here for sure. I could live vicariously through BOX though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 From what I looked at on the midnight shift last night, the GFS was definitely more aggressive with warm front progress. The NAM kept us wedged in up here for sure. I could live vicariously through BOX though. which is weird b/c I typically remember the NAM usually being more aggressive with warm front penetrations than the GFS. I just hope we continue seeing steep lapse rates working in as we move into the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Thursday is the better day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 I think Thursday is the better day too but Friday could have some activity around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Expect watches and warnings on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Expect watches and warnings on Thursday Or it could be some gusty showers and graupel. But enjoy the damage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 A pretty impressive piece of s/w energy is projected to move through during the afternoon on Sunday and will be associated with a very cold mid-level airmass (500mb temps <-20C) and very steeo mid-level lapse rates (8-9 C/KM!!!!!!!!). While moisture will be lacking (and this is the biggest cavet) if some instability can develop we could see some convective showers develop and perhaps produce some pea-hail. In fact, maybe some of the heavier showers could dump pea-hail.Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Sunday? Oops I meant Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 The 0z NAM bufkit profile for BDL is really interesting. I wish shear/llvl moisture was greater but there is decent cape for this setup, especially hail cape. I think the lack of stronger vertical shear/helicity and llvl moisture will prevent a shot for severe hail but we could see numerous pea to nickle reports IMO. I guess a 1'' report can't be ruled out but think that will be a little hard to achieve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Hail isn't the big deal with this.. Strong winds are what will be most widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Wild afternoon / evening on tap tomorrow. Big gusts and hailers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Wild afternoon / evening on tap tomorrow. Big gusts and hailers Models have trended a bit less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Models have trended a bit less impressive.Well you just mentioned 40-50 mph gusts and hail on air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Thunder and lighting right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I just saw a sounding for tomorrow and said wow that's an odd sounding, very low tropopause, cold H5 temps and inverted V. Then I saw the last frame of the HRRR showing convection popping up in eastern NY tomorrow and was like zomagad we gonna get hail showers! Figured Wiz would have a thread ready . Haven't seen a set up like this in a while, if ever. I remember an event in June of 2002 we had some small storms but with very gusty winds and small hail. It was the day Green Day/Blink show Mansfield, that's how I remember. Just looked it up, it was June 2, 2002. Not sure if the soundings were similar but it's the first event that came to mind when I saw tomorrow, Ima look more into it. (Just looked up wx for Lawrence on that day) At KLWM was 70F then first report of thunder dropped to 64F, then winds kicked up gusting to 35mph and temp up to 70F, then it went back down to 59F, all in less than an hour. I think it was from the downdaft we got that quick rise in temp from subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Thunder and lighting right now Nice. There are no recent CGs from this batch of storms but I was hoping there would be some IC at least. Guess there is, at least in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Easterly winds firing toward these showers off the ocean can be seen in base ref in PLY county, MA. Little MCV at NH/MA border maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 WGW ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL BETWEEN 2 AND 10 PMTHIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AREEXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILETHIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BECAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTSWITH OR WITHOUT LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW RISK FORAN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO UP TO 60 MPH. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN 2 AND 10 PM THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 Wonder if best shot for more widespread activity is north? Looks like the main s/w is going to push through NNE. The HRRR though has showers and some heavier cores through the entire region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Wonder if best shot for more widespread activity is north? Looks like the main s/w is going to push through NNE. I certainly hope so. SNE has been hogging all the winter severe this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 Vertical shear values are through the roof lol...not sure I've seen it approach or exceed 100 knots before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Cumulus clouds starting to build Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 The HRRR is pretty impressive with how widespread shower activity will be this afternoon. Given the parameters in place it will not take much at all for even heavier showers to drop some small hail and produce gusty winds. The latest mesoanalysis even shows 100 J/KG of cape in the -10C to -30C layer...not bad for small hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.