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Thursday, March 17th, 2016 cold pool hailers?


weatherwiz

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A pretty impressive piece of s/w energy is projected to move through during the afternoon on Sunday and will be associated with a very cold mid-level airmass (500mb temps <-20C) and very steeo mid-level lapse rates (8-9 C/KM!!!!!!!!).  While moisture will be lacking (and this is the biggest cavet) if some instability can develop we could see some convective showers develop and perhaps produce some pea-hail.  In fact, maybe some of the heavier showers could dump pea-hail.  

 

 

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The GFS has 850-500 lapse rates on the order of 8.5 C/KM...about as steep as you'll see here.  I wish sfc dews were higher though

 

From what I looked at on the midnight shift last night, the GFS was definitely more aggressive with warm front progress. The NAM kept us wedged in up here for sure. I could live vicariously through BOX though.

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From what I looked at on the midnight shift last night, the GFS was definitely more aggressive with warm front progress. The NAM kept us wedged in up here for sure. I could live vicariously through BOX though.

 

which is weird b/c I typically remember the NAM usually being more aggressive with warm front penetrations than the GFS.  I just hope we continue seeing steep lapse rates working in as we move into the summer

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A pretty impressive piece of s/w energy is projected to move through during the afternoon on Sunday and will be associated with a very cold mid-level airmass (500mb temps <-20C) and very steeo mid-level lapse rates (8-9 C/KM!!!!!!!!). While moisture will be lacking (and this is the biggest cavet) if some instability can develop we could see some convective showers develop and perhaps produce some pea-hail. In fact, maybe some of the heavier showers could dump pea-hail.

Sunday?
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The 0z NAM bufkit profile for BDL is really interesting.  I wish shear/llvl moisture was greater but there is decent cape for this setup, especially hail cape.  I think the lack of stronger vertical shear/helicity and llvl moisture will prevent a shot for severe hail but we could see numerous pea to nickle reports IMO.  I guess a 1'' report can't be ruled out but think that will be a little hard to achieve

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I just saw a sounding for tomorrow and said wow that's an odd sounding, very low tropopause, cold H5 temps and inverted V. Then I saw the last frame of the HRRR showing convection popping up in eastern NY tomorrow and was like zomagad we gonna get hail showers! Figured Wiz would have a thread ready  :thumbsup: .

 

Haven't seen a set up like this in a while, if ever. I remember an event in June of 2002 we had some small storms but with very gusty winds and small hail. It was the day Green Day/Blink show Mansfield, that's how I remember. Just looked it up, it was June 2, 2002. Not sure if the soundings were similar but it's the first event that came to mind when I saw tomorrow, Ima look more into it. 

 

(Just looked up wx for Lawrence on that day) At KLWM was 70F then first report of thunder dropped to 64F, then winds kicked up gusting to 35mph and temp up to 70F, then it went back down to 59F, all in less than an hour. I think it was from the downdaft we got that quick rise in temp from subsidence. 

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WGW

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT

IN LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL BETWEEN 2 AND 10 PM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
WITH OR WITHOUT LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO UP TO 60 MPH. THE MAIN TIME
FRAME OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN 2 AND 10 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

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The HRRR is pretty impressive with how widespread shower activity will be this afternoon.  Given the parameters in place it will not take much at all for even heavier showers to drop some small hail and produce gusty winds.  The latest mesoanalysis even shows 100 J/KG of cape in the -10C to -30C layer...not bad for small hail

 

hail.gif?1458231607000

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