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Severe Weather Threat in the ArkLaTex - Sunday March 12


Jim Martin

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0851 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST LA AND PART OF WESTERN

MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...

VALID 140151Z - 140315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 43 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONE OR TWO ROWS OF PARISHES IN LOUISIANA AND COUNTIES IN

WEST-CENTRAL MS LOCATED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF WW 43

MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS TORNADO WATCH. TRENDS WILL BE

MONITORED THAT COULD RESULT IN A LOCAL WFO AREAL WATCH EXTENSION.

DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING TRENDS IN CLOUD TOP COOLING...LIGHTNING

DATA AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS HAD DEVELOPED AND

INCREASED IN INTENSITY INTO NORTHERN LA. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHERN

EXTENT OF GREATER HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE COMPACT

CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AR THIS EVENING ARE

AIDING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN

PORTION OF WW 43. THE FORT POLK LA AND JACKSON MS VWP DATA SHOWED

FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE

STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IF STORMS

IN THE EASTERN PART OF WFO-SHV COUNTY WARNING AREA /JACKSON TO

NATCHITOCHES PARISHES/ MAINTAIN SUSTENANCE AND HAVE INCREASED

FURTHER IN INTENSITY...THEN A FEW PARISHES AND COUNTIES MAY NEED TO

BE ADDED IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF WW 43 IN

NORTHEAST LA AND WEST-CENTRAL MS.

..PETERS.. 03/14/2016

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Even though they dropped tornado warning on the storm heading for Memphis, I wouldn't be surprised if it is reissued. It's still trying to re-organize itself a lot.

 

edit: Spoke too soon. TW for Memphis issued. I'm a bit surprised they didn't mention the storm having a history of producing tornadoes.

 

 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
936 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 935 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE CORMORANT...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF T O FULLER
STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WALLS AROUND 940 PM CDT.
HORN LAKE AND LYNCHBURG AROUND 950 PM CDT.
T O FULLER STATE PARK...SOUTHWEST MEMPHIS AND WHITEHAVEN AROUND 955
PM CDT.
SOUTHAVEN AND DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS AROUND 1005 PM CDT.
MIDTOWN MEMPHIS AROUND 1010 PM CDT.
GERMANTOWN...SOUTHEAST MEMPHIS AND FRAYSER AROUND 1015 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
RALEIGH...LAKE VIEW...WHITE STATION...FISHERVILLE...PRESIDENTS
ISLAND...LENOW...SPRING LAKE...BRUNSWICK...ELMORE PARK AND PARKWAY
VILLAGE.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0949 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/NORTHEAST LA/SOUTHWEST TN/WEST-CENTRAL

TO NORTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...

VALID 140249Z - 140445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 43 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF AR INTO NORTHEAST

LA...WITH STORMS ADVANCING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND

NORTHWEST MS AND WESTERN TN DURING THE LATE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AT 02Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND AVAILABLE VWP DATA

ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH SHOWED THE SOUTHERLY

LOW-LEVEL JET HAD STRENGTHENED TO 45-60 KT FROM SOUTHERN LA...

NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MS TO SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR. THIS LLJ

BENEATH A 50-55-KT WESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO EASTERN AR

AND NORTHERN MS IS MAINTAINING FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILES AND

STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED...ROTATING

UPDRAFTS. THESE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS AND 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF

7-7.5 C/KM WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE

EASTWARD-MOVING COMPACT CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT FURTHER STORM

DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS IN MRMS 7- AND 9-KM CAPPI DATA

SUGGEST GRADUAL WEAKENING UPDRAFTS/STORMS THAT ARE MOVING INTO

WESTERN TN...WHILE THE STRONGEST CELLS WERE LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST AR.

THE LATTER STORMS WERE LOCATED CLOSER TO RELATIVELY STRONGER

INSTABILITY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSING A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE

STORMS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO WESTERN MS.

MEANWHILE...COUNTIES AND PARISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF WW 43

CAN CONTINUE TO BE CANCELLED AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES

AWAY FROM THESE COUNTIES/PARISHES INTO EASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS AND

WESTERN TN.

..PETERS.. 03/14/2016

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Thanks for completely misinterpreting my post.

This post is completely uncalled for, they aren't saying it would be like that event, they even say it isn't like that event in magnitude.

Actually I did read his entire post. If he didn't mean to compare this event to 3/1/97 in any way shape or form, why even bring it up? There's been numerous other supercell and tornado events in this same area with similar tracks since March 1, 1997, none nearly as devastating or deadly. Posters on this board, not just in this thread, always compare whatever current severe weather event is going on to the most epic one ever in that area (if it's in Alabama, 4/27/2011, Oklahoma 5/3/99, etc). The reason, of course, is to sensationalize their post and get more attention, which in turn leads the weather-uneducated readers of this forum to think another 3/1/97 is happening. I think it's completely ridiculous and needs to be called out more often, but judging by the responses and attacks on me on here it's apparently what the regular posters and moderators of this forum want - and why us actual meteorologists don't (and won't) post.

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Actually I did read his entire post. If he didn't mean to compare this event to 3/1/97 in any way shape or form, why even bring it up? There's been numerous other supercell and tornado events in this same area with similar tracks since March 1, 1997, none nearly as devastating or deadly. Posters on this board, not just in this thread, always compare whatever current severe weather event is going on to the most epic one ever in that area (if it's in Alabama, 4/27/2011, Oklahoma 5/3/99, etc). The reason, of course, is to sensationalize their post and get more attention, which in turn leads the weather-uneducated readers of this forum to think another 3/1/97 is happening. I think it's completely ridiculous and needs to be called out more often, but judging by the responses and attacks on me on here it's apparently what the regular posters and moderators of this forum want - and why us actual meteorologists don't (and won't) post.

You sir, are a clown show.

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What's the protocol for updating the SPC Reports page with tornado reports? There were at least three TOR Warning products that called out a 'confirmed tornado' along with a specific location - but none of the three are listed yet on the SPC Storm Reports page.

Normally, it seems like TOR Warning products usually result in a tornado on the storm report.

In the below three screen grabs, the left is the SPC Storm Report "Google Maps' view and the right is the Warning Product text grabbed from our great posters on here.

post-5832-0-09513600-1457933597_thumb.pn
post-5832-0-03294400-1457933611_thumb.pn
post-5832-0-40946600-1457933621_thumb.pn

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What's the protocol for updating the SPC Reports page with tornado reports? There were at least three TOR Warning products that called out a 'confirmed tornado' along with a specific location - but none of the three are listed yet on the SPC Storm Reports page.

Normally, it seems like TOR Warning products usually result in a tornado on the storm report.

In the below three screen grabs, the left is the SPC Storm Report "Google Maps' view and the right is the Warning Product text grabbed from our great posters on here.

 

 

The SPC reports page pulls directly from the LSR's that are issued by each NWS office. Therefore if those tornado reports were not yet issued via an LSR, then it will not show up on the SPC reports page.

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Actually I did read his entire post. If he didn't mean to compare this event to 3/1/97 in any way shape or form, why even bring it up? There's been numerous other supercell and tornado events in this same area with similar tracks since March 1, 1997, none nearly as devastating or deadly. Posters on this board, not just in this thread, always compare whatever current severe weather event is going on to the most epic one ever in that area (if it's in Alabama, 4/27/2011, Oklahoma 5/3/99, etc). The reason, of course, is to sensationalize their post and get more attention, which in turn leads the weather-uneducated readers of this forum to think another 3/1/97 is happening. I think it's completely ridiculous and needs to be called out more often, but judging by the responses and attacks on me on here it's apparently what the regular posters and moderators of this forum want - and why us actual meteorologists don't (and won't) post.

Quoting Andy completely killed the credibility of the point you're still trying to make. He clearly stated that this isn't the same case. Now you go on to prove that you still don't understand their points.

 

The reason, of course, is to sensationalize their post and get more attention, which in turn leads the weather-uneducated readers of this forum to think another 3/1/97 is happening.

 

 

Both of them were talking about the fact that the tornadic supercell was following the same path as a memorable/infamous supercell. They were saying nothing about the entire event happening again... just that one of the supercells is following a very similar path to one of the big ones that day.

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