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Severe Weather Threat in the ArkLaTex - Sunday March 12


Jim Martin

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
528 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
  CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
  NORTH CENTRAL GARLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 527 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
  JESSIEVILLE... OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS
  VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.


  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.


  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE...PERRYVILLE...JESSIEVILLE...WILLIAMS JUNCTION...
  CHERRY HILL IN PERRY COUNTY...HAMILTON...THORNBURG...LONG MOUNTAIN...
  REFORM AND PARON.

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LIT cell

 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  TORNADO WARNING  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  541 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...    SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...    EAST CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...    * UNTIL 615 PM CDT        * AT 541 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A    TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST END...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF    SOUTHWEST LITTLE ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.      HAZARD...TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.     
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LIT cell

   THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...    SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...    EAST CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...    * UNTIL 615 PM CDT        * AT 541 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A    TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST END...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF    SOUTHWEST LITTLE ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.    

Seems like a broad low-level rotation on that. Maybe they are expecting this to tighten up to a narrow rotation.

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HE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 42 CONTINUES.  

 

SUMMARY...A RECENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND  

SOUTHERN AR SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE INTO THE  

EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS MOVING TO  

THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AR. VERY LARGE HAIL HAS OCCURRED WITH A  

COUPLE OF THESE STORMS...AND THIS THREAT PERSISTS INTO CENTRAL AR.  

LOCAL WFO AREAL EXPANSION OF WW 42 MAY BE NEEDED AS STORMS MOVE  

NORTH OF THIS WATCH AROUND 00Z...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE  

OF A SEVERE THREAT.  

 

MEANWHILE...FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ATTENDANT SEVERE-WEATHER  

POTENTIAL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THE CELLS FORMING ACROSS FAR  

SOUTHEAST OK INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST TX...AND  

SOUTH-CENTRAL AR.  

 

DISCUSSION...AT 2220Z...MOSAIC AND SINGLE-SITE RADAR IMAGERY  

INDICATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS  

CENTRAL AR...WITH THE YELL COUNTY...NORTHERN GARLAND/PERRY/WESTERN  

SALINE COUNTIES STORM AND THE EASTERN SALINE/PULASKI COUNTIES STORM  

HAVING PERIODIC MRMS MESH CORES UP TO 2-2.5 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.  

THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT  

THAT ARCS FROM WESTERN TO SOUTHERN AR...AND ATTENDANT TO A MAXIMIZED  

AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE EXIT REGION OF 500-MB AND  

300-MB JETS NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST AR. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE  

ANALYZED AT 22Z EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE  

WARM FRONT/STORM ACTIVITY FROM NEAR LIT TO THE LA BORDER.  

ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IN THE SURFACE WINDS WAS APPARENT ACROSS EAST  

AND SOUTHEAST AR WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...  

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR A GREATER  

TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THE ONGOING STORMS ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.  

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  

618 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016  

 

ARC085-132345-  

/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-160313T2345Z/  

LONOKE AR-  

618 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016  

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL  

LONOKE COUNTY...  

 

AT 617 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LONOKE...MOVING  

NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  

629 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016  

 

ARC045-105-119-140000-  

/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160314T0000Z/  

PULASKI AR-FAULKNER AR-PERRY AR-  

629 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016  

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR  

NORTHWESTERN PULASKI...SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER AND EAST CENTRAL PERRY  

COUNTIES...  

 

AT 628 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF  

CONWAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.  

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  

641 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHERN LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...  

 

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT  

 

* AT 641 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ENGLAND...OR 17  

MILES SOUTH OF LONOKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

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O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160314T0000Z/  

ARKANSAS AR-JEFFERSON AR-  

651 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016  

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR  

NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES...  

 

AT 651 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LANGFORD...OR 18  

MILES SOUTH OF STUTTGART...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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