tornadohunter Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Likely tornado just touched down in Dayton Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Depending how far north the warm front/better instability get tomorrow afternoon, we (CoD) might launch a wx balloon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Why does the SPC think i'm in the game? I haven't been in the game on any of the models I don't think. I don't buy the slight risk west of the MS river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Somebody...maybe IND...used to mention that as a general rule, you need at least 24 and preferably 36 hours to get 60 degree dews from the area they are now into our area. If that were to hold, it would make it tough for the NAM output to verify. If I had to bet on it, I'd go lower than the NAM, but I do think there's a good chance we will get 60 degree dewpoints into part of the risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Why does the SPC think i'm in the game? I haven't been in the game on any of the models I don't think. I don't buy the slight risk west of the MS river. You are slight because of a marginally severe hail threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 You are slight because of a marginally severe hail threat. I read the discussion, but I don't think it would warrant a slight risk maybe a marginal risk for the morning hail. I don't think it will be widespread enough to warrant a slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 12z ECMWF continues to be farther south with the surface low and thus the focus of the threat area, but fwiw max dewpoints on this run did increase a few degrees vs. 00z run. Upper 50s dewpoints get to Galesburg to Lacon to just south of PNT. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 EURO gets a tongue of 55° dewpoints up to De Kalb, but that's it. 60s stay south of I-70. CAPE values fail to crack 1000 north of I-70. It's highlighting west central IL for severe weather and then dying back as you go into the night. and towards eastern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Yeah the Euro seems to have a good handle on dews currently. NAM is definitely looking overdone, which isn't surprising. Question is whether 57-59 dews will be enough for tornadic potiential? Hail threat still looks really good of course. Thinking the upper 50 dews should be good for a few tors, but maybe not as many as what could have been if the NAM was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Likely tornado just touched down in Dayton Ohio. Tornado reported at Phillipsburg OH (11 miles west of KDAY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 12z ECMWF continues to be farther south with the surface low and thus the focus of the threat area, but fwiw max dewpoints on this run did increase a few degrees vs. 00z run. Upper 50s dewpoints get to Galesburg to Lacon to just south of PNT. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Surface low deepens pretty fast on there, especially later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Yeah the Euro seems to have a good handle on dews currently. NAM is definitely looking overdone, which isn't surprising. Question is whether 57-59 dews will be enough for tornadic potiential? Hail threat still looks really good of course. Thinking the upper 50 dews should be good for a few tors, but maybe not as many as what could have been if the NAM was correct. I agree that upper 50s dewpoints should be good enough for some tors...steep lapse rates will help instability values and temps don't look to get out of hand and result in high LCLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 I really like the Toulon-Rochelle-Pontiac-Peoria area. EURO has the Peoria-Galesburg area in the highest risk and back down the IL River valley. Moderate almost up to your town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Day early, but I just got my first tor by Arcanum OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 I agree that upper 50s dewpoints should be good enough for some tors...steep lapse rates will help instability values and temps don't look to get out of hand and result in high LCLs. Yeah that's a key right there. Upper 50s should be okay given that temps shouldn't be well into the 70s, at least further north. There should hopefully be a sweet spot somewhere over north-central IL where LCLs are low enough, and instability is just enough. Better SRH up in that area as well. We also have that fairly strong vort rolling in from upstream at the base of that negative tilt axis which should also help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Euro CAPE values at 21z, 00z, 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Euro CAPE values at 21z, 00z, 03z 1.png 2.png 3.png I think the Euro is a tad stingy on cape, as it has had a history of being that way. Not sure if it underestimates lapse rates or what, but for some reason it's usually a little low. Not saying it won't be right in this case, but I'd bet there will be slightly higher cape than what's shown in the main instability axis. Of course this is the brand new Euro, so who knows lol. If I were a gambling man I'd wager we'll see a tongue of 1000-1500j/kg along the spine of IL by late afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Weird that the eurowx maps didn't show the 1000 CAPE values up into central IL. ^ 600-700 for Chicagoland, yeah not expecting any low level severe at least. Area might get some hailers, some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Svrwx Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Day early, but I just got my first tor by Arcanum OH. Were you chasing? What if anything did you witness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Have to think the amount of deep moisture on the Euro is pretty pitiful, would be a low tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Weird that the eurowx maps didn't show the 1000 CAPE values up into central IL. ^ Could depend on which type of CAPE. I'm not sure what Wunderground uses (surface, mixed, most unstable) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Yea we a tornado on the ground near phillipsburg Ohio. Lots of damage. Reported funnel cloud near arcanum Ohio. St Rt 127 and 49 possible touchdown in that area also. It just missed NW of me but got the warning for 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Yeah that's a key right there. Upper 50s should be okay given that temps shouldn't be well into the 70s, at least further north. There should hopefully be a sweet spot somewhere over north-central IL where LCLs are low enough, and instability is just enough. Better SRH up in that area as well. We also have that fairly strong vort rolling in from upstream at the base of that negative tilt axis which should also help. Here's a NAM sounding south of RFD at 00z...using 62/59 and still manages to generate SBCAPE exceeding 1000. I'm not so much focused on the precise location as I am in the environment...a 62/59 type environment could be good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Here's the tornado that touched down near Phillipsburg OH posted on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Were you chasing? What if anything did you witness? Yes. A slowly rotating wall cloud went from KDAY to downtown Troy. I then went west of Covington, and had an awesome clearing. There was a rapidly rotating wall cloud ~8miles to my WSW. Produced multiple funnels and then a larger one that lasted about 30-45 seconds that was well below the tree line and was most likely on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Phillipsburg Ohio tornado. Touch down was @ 2:17pm. NWS is headed to the seen of the damaged area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Here's the tornado that touched down near Phillipsburg OH posted on twitter. Very impressive coming from such a marginal environment and with almost no rotation on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Very impressive coming from such a marginal environment and with almost no rotation on radar. The rotation was actually pretty decent. Only way to see it was with the TDWR Some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 lol NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 18z NAM looks a little slower/south...step toward the ECMWF in that regard but still bullish with dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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