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March 15/16 Severe Wx


kystormspotter

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Yeah the Euro is slow enough to substantially reduce the threat here vs the 12km NAM which is beyond impressive. As you mentioned earlier, Euro hasn't had good run to run continuity with this setup. It's getting into a range where you'd want to put more trust in its solution, but hard to tell in this case given poor run to run continuity. At the same time, it's also still far enough out to have some doubt in the NAM output.

 

 

Pretty tough to have any confidence on timing given the spread.  Looks like there may be better upper air sampling for the 00z runs?

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Pretty tough to have any confidence on timing given the spread. Looks like there may be better upper air sampling for the 00z runs?

Yep very low confidence fairly close in to the potential event. It appears some of the energy will move ashore in time for 00z runs and then even better sampling appears likely for 12z runs tomorrow.
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This setup reminds me of the April 9th setup from last year. You had the SE flow off of Lake Michigan and a warm humid air mass sector that stretched into extreme southern WI.

 

We looking at discrete supercell potential or damaging straight line winds?

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This setup reminds me of the April 9th setup from last year. You had the SE flow off of Lake Michigan and a warm humid air mass sector that stretched into extreme southern WI.

 

We looking at discrete supercell potential or damaging straight line winds?

 

From the way people have been talking, supercells that later congeal into a line

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This setup reminds me of the April 9th setup from last year. You had the SE flow off of Lake Michigan and a warm humid air mass sector that stretched into extreme southern WI.

 

We looking at discrete supercell potential or damaging straight line winds?

 

 

Overall, I think there's good supercell potential, and you can make an argument that congealing into a line would not occur very quickly.  As posted last night, deep layer shear vectors with respect to the cold front look favorable.  As long as instability is good and moisture doesn't come in well below guidance, there should be pretty good supercell/tornado potential.

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This setup reminds me of the April 9th setup from last year. You had the SE flow off of Lake Michigan and a warm humid air mass sector that stretched into extreme southern WI.

 

Funny you mentioned that since I was thinking the same thing about the look of some of the soundings off the 12z NAM. Similar amounts of instability/shear present (dewpoints won't be as high as that event, but mid level lapse rates here may have the advantage).

 

I also remember that was another event where the Euro really bombed the convective forecast, primarily since it was putting out way too much early convection in the presence of an EML.

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NAM 4 km on the other hand bullseyes the Kankakee/Champaign corridor with a string of pearls ahead of the boundary. I am really doubting we see 64 degree Tds though like it is showing unless we see some serious pooling along/ahead of the front.

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18Z NAM is looking like it's good for Tornadoes in Illinois and part's of Indiana and for Large Hail/Damaging Wind elsewhere.

 

Also note, the run of the 18Z NAM on College of DuPage is broken, the sounding shows a 7.4 supercell composite at hour 60 around Saint Joeseph and the map shows nothing at the same time

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18_NAM_060_41.89,-84.76_severe_ml.png

 

 

Looks like 41.89, -84.76 comes out to the Hillsdale area.  How many times have you been told to be less imby oriented?  Or the least you could do is specify where you were talking about in your original post.  Edit:  I see you fixed that part at least.

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I told you I clicked by the large pocket of higher Supercell composites near Saint Joseph county MI. Jesus christ do you people have nothing better to do?

 

First of all there's a county named St. Joseph in N IN (where the COD plots are registering values) and you didn't specify. Secondly, you have been told so many times to cut the IMBY stuff out and you continue to do it. Also, I haven't seen any desire from you to try to improve your model analysis since you started posting here. Sorry if this comes off as harsh, but it is getting frustrating at this point.

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