nwburbschaser Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Set of analogs includes the Leap Day outbreak of 2012 Interesting to see that only one of those analogs occurred during a warm ENSO. In the end, this definitely has the potential for a decent event if moisture comes in at the higher end of guidance, but I don't have too much confidence in that happening at this point. I'm never a fan of the small margin for error with moisture in an early season event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Interesting to see that only one of those analogs occurred during a warm ENSO. In the end, this definitely has the potential for a decent event if moisture comes in at the higher end of guidance, but I don't have too much confidence in that happening at this point. I'm never a fan of the small margin for error with moisture in an early season event. Granted this is a good point. But, the Ohio valley is going to get a good rain in the next day or two. Should help moisture returns A 96 outbreak was in a set of analogs and that had few points reaching 60+ to michigan. Was a significant outbreak. Models are trending towards bringing moisture further north. We won't have any certainty until this low comes ashore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Euro did step it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Euro a bit better overall, though verbatim, the threat would be questionable in ne IL with winds off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Shear off NAM on the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Euro a bit better overall, though verbatim, the threat would be questionable in ne IL with winds off the lake. Yeah warm sector really doesn't get north of I-88. Could still see some strong storms in the Chicago area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 SPC doesn't sound too enthused, probably due to the lack of model agreement ...MIDWEST...WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST WITHPREVAILING WLYS AT 850 MB IN PRECEDING DAYS ACROSS THE NRN GULF...APLUME OF 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BENEATHSTEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA APPROACHES THEIL PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR...ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULDDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD TUE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONTACCELERATES. DESPITE THE OFFSET TO THE DIURNAL HEATINGCYCLE...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT A SMALLPROGRESSIVE MCS CAPABLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHPRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND RISK TUE NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 SPC doesn't sound too enthused, probably due to the lack of model agreement ...MIDWEST... WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST WITH PREVAILING WLYS AT 850 MB IN PRECEDING DAYS ACROSS THE NRN GULF...A PLUME OF 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA APPROACHES THE IL PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR...ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD TUE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES. DESPITE THE OFFSET TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT A SMALL PROGRESSIVE MCS CAPABLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND RISK TUE NIGHT. At least they mentioned the all hazards part. Also, new NAM seems to have ticked up in moisture a tad. 4k can see 18z. Here's the graphic and a sounding I pulled from NE Illinois at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 IWX sounds much more enthused then the SPC .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SUN MAR 13 2016THE REMNANTS OF A LARGE UPPER LOW WERE BEING INGESTED INTO A SERIESOF SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. THE PATTERN HASBECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY OVERDOINGRAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SCENARIO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN ISEXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOTEXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGYWILL REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL BECOMEFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. ASTRONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND JETDYNAMICS ALL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. BUFKIT PROFILESFAVOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN LARGE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH MOISTUREAVAILABLE WILL NOT BE OPTIMUM FOR STORMS BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.WILL ADD MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THEHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 06Z GFS upped mositure resulting in more CAPE, especially further north (now reaching to around Flint) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 12z nam rolling in now... Dew points of 60+ reach chicago. It appears this run slowed down the surface low and moved northwest. Edit: Nam 4km reflect image added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 12Z GFS substantially increased instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 12z GFS looks a bit quick. Not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 12Z GFS substantially increased instabilityNot really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Not really. It did in Hillsdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 It did in Hillsdale. And the rest of Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I find it interesting that dew points currently this Sunday afternoon are in the low 60's south of Indianapolis. If this holds serve come Tuesday it will only enhance the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I find it interesting that dew points currently this Sunday afternoon are in the low 60's south of Indianapolis. If this holds serve come Tuesday it will only enhance the storms. They are supposed to drop off some tomorrow, but there isn't a big push from a cold front blasting into the area. So I would expect them to not go down too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 12z GFS looks a bit quick. Not sure about that. The 4km NAM is closer to it than the 12km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 The 4km NAM is closer to it than the 12km NAM. Yeah, the 4km run is sort of a compromise on timing but closer to the GFS. Maybe it's just me but I get suspicious of the GFS when it's the fastest model, though I guess there are some situations where it would make sense more than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Storms firing in the early morning? Better instability as the front approaches the I-57 corridor. Dewpoints from 40° to low 60s in NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Verbatim the 12z NAM (12 km) is a pretty serious tornado threat across N IL including RFD and the entirety of Chicagoland during peak heating Tuesday afternoon. Not doing it with completely unrealistic moisture content either (dewpoints generally in the upper 50s). Shows you what an EML can do and generally why they cause problems when they invade E of the Plains. We'll see what happens with timing, given this is still outside the mesoscale guidance's preferred range, but I'd bet it does slow to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 12z NAM fcst sounding for ARR at 21z Tuesday...not much to complain about there...yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 12z NAM fcst sounding for ARR at 21z Tuesday...not much to complain about there...yikes KMDW sounding @ 22z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 STP of 7 right over your house, Hoosier at 00z Wed. per 12z NAM. Hopefully the NAM is overdoing things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 You thought the NAM was slow...check out the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Pretty ridiculous model spread on timing for being within 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Pretty ridiculous model spread on timing for being within 60 hours.Yeah the Euro is slow enough to substantially reduce the threat here vs the 12km NAM which is beyond impressive. As you mentioned earlier, Euro hasn't had good run to run continuity with this setup. It's getting into a range where you'd want to put more trust in its solution, but hard to tell in this case given poor run to run continuity. At the same time, it's also still far enough out to have some doubt in the NAM output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 All this rain we are getting today certainly can't hurt things for Tuesday that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Extremely nasty sounding in the vicinity of a supercell on 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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