Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 18Z GFS increased Cape as well. Yeah, pretty substantially actually. ECMWF solution gives reason for pause but I think there'd be even bigger cause for alarm regarding meager sfc dews if we had a big surface high to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Sounding in Cassopolis Michigan Sounding near Fort Wayne Soundings are making this look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Yeah, pretty substantially actually. ECMWF solution gives reason for pause but I think there'd be even bigger cause for alarm regarding meager sfc dews if we had a big surface high to the east. Good point there. No strong sfc high to speak of to the east, drier air probably due to poor airmass after first low pressure passes by and maybe drier/low dewpoint low level air over the Great Lakes in general. If ECMWF comes in with increased moisture and instability tonight, time to start getting more concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Ride the euro, duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Ride the euro, duh The Euro has shown very poor continuity with this system honestly. The run last night probably would be a rather robust event with just a tad more deep layer moisture. It keeps flipping between faster and slower in terms of the occlusion of the upper level trough as well. Usually there wouldn't be that much reason to doubt it, but that's not necessarily the case here. This is a period of relatively low pattern predictability in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Fairly impressive analog. Worth noting the the 96 analog had dewpoints of >60 reaching as far north as south bend, indiana. Starting to think this setup will largely depend on moisture returns. *duh* NAM sounding just west of Indy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Initial look at 00z NAM looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Initial look at 00z NAM looks pretty good. Wow that is a large area of 2000+ SBCAPE at 21z. Shear really ramps up by 00z and puts most of IN under quite a significant risk. Pulled a sounding near IND for sh*ts and giggles and it had 6 matches for sig-tor producing supercells from SHARPpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Wow that is a large area of 2000+ SBCAPE at 21z. Shear really ramps up by 00z and puts most of IN under quite a significant risk. Pulled a sounding near IND for sh*ts and giggles and it had 6 matches for sig-tor producing supercells from SHARPpy. Dew points and lifted index increased as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 From my untrained eye....it looks like there is going to be a cap in place. No doubt there are some impressive parameters showing up, but soundings from chicago to in/ky border show a cap in place just above the surface. Asking the mets here....with the low level cap...storms would have trouble becoming surfaced base and thus a lower tornado threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Low levels looking impressive as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 From my untrained eye....it looks like there is going to be a cap in place. No doubt there are some impressive parameters showing up, but soundings from chicago to in/ky border show a cap in place just above the surface. Asking the mets here....with the low level cap...storms would have trouble becoming surfaced base and thus a lower tornado threat? Cap where, I see no cap from Chicago to KY/IN/IL border especially at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Cap where, I see no cap from Chicago to KY/IN/IL border especially at 72 hours. right above the surface? If that is not a cap...please forgive me...im mainly here to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I will say this. It will not take much to break that cap as indicated on the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 There's a bit of low level CINH on that forecast sounding, likely due to time of day with low levels starting to cool. Not really seeing a cap aloft though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 right above the surface? If that is not a cap...please forgive me...im mainly here to learn A capping inversion would have relatively higher temperatures around 850mb, and cooler air closer to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 00z NAM is pretty damn nasty. With that said, I expected NAM to be nasty at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 00z NAM is pretty damn nasty. With that said, I expected NAM to be nasty at this range. New signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 right above the surface? If that is not a cap...please forgive me...im mainly here to learn Yeah that isn't a cap, that is just a remnant warmer layer aloft. As Hoosier noted though there is a bit of CINH due to the surface cooling nocturnally. I do question if we will cool as quickly with the amount of advection from the south into the region due to the strong wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Yeah that isn't a cap, that is just a remnant warmer layer aloft. As Hoosier noted though there is a bit of CINH due to the surface cooling nocturnally. I do question if we will cool as quickly with the amount of advection from the south into the region due to the strong wind fields. Thanks for clearing that up. How does a little bit of CINH at the surface affect storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 i see this map posted a lot during summer - can you guys explain this? Reason I ask is because I've never seen it verify - it always looks much stronger than the actual outcome? It takes a bunch of analogs and plots the reports from those analogs, so it's almost always going to look worse than what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Thanks for clearing that up. How does a little bit of CINH at the surface affect storms? A small amount of CINH isn't a big deal, but if the number gets really large (say north of 50 or even bigger), then it's a more hostile situation for surface based storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 0z GFS Time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 GFS increased the CAPE once again from Illinois/Indiana/etc. 2 hour until le Euro. Also, thanks for clearing that cap question up, as I learned something new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 New signature Still some gnarly parameters on GFS... any thoughts on storm mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Still some gnarly parameters on GFS... any thoughts on storm mode? IMO, we won't know until tomorrow nights runs or Monday. Models haven't had the best grasp on this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Not sure how significant this will end up being but based on tonight's runs, I think there would at least be a window for tornadic cells in the IL/IN area. Shear vectors look pretty favorable with respect to the front. Curious to see if the ECMWF will get a little more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Set of analogs includes the Leap Day outbreak of 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Not sure how significant this will end up being but based on tonight's runs, I think there would at least be a window for tornadic cells in the IL/IN area. Shear vectors look pretty favorable with respect to the front. Curious to see if the ECMWF will get a little more favorable. Agreed from the looks of it, supercells ahead of a squall line look's probable based on the NAM and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Just a reminder, day 3 outlook could come out later tonight due to the time change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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