March 15/16 Severe Wx

[hm8]

Surprising amount of lighting to my SW from the cell rolling in from Ann Arbor.

[Stebo]

Surprising amount of lighting to my SW from the cell rolling in from Ann Arbor.

That elevated instability putting in some work. Looking forward to some tumblers tonight.

[stormtrackertf]

Loud thunder and lightning here in Dearborn Heights/Taylor area.

[Geos]

Most impressive cell of the night incoming. Great light show for mid-March!

 

Get any hail?

 

I got some more pea sized hail for the second time tonight.

[andyhb]

Man these events just keep skirting all around Chicago, it's only a matter of time before something ugly happens in the metro.

[cyclone77]

^Thanks guys.  I'll try to get the time lapse up by tomorrow night.

[Geos]

Yeah Andy, I think the lake "protected" the metro this time around at least the north 2/3rd's. Still hasn't budged over 49° today.

 

Looks like the front approaching the metro on radar...

 

[IWXwx]

Good job Joel! I knew that if there was a tor close, you'd nail it.

[A-L-E-K]

Man these events just keep skirting all around Chicago, it's only a matter of time before something ugly happens in the metro.

 

 

back flow by default is going to mean cold air off the lake in early spring

[rolltide_130]

Man these events just keep skirting all around Chicago, it's only a matter of time before something ugly happens in the metro.

Likely the effect of the lake breeze. You'd probably have to get into late Spring/Summer (I.E Plainfield) to get the lake warm enough to not put a damper on things.

[RCNYILWX]

Looking back at the 00z DVN sounding, as had been mentioned several times by others, what probably held this event back from being a high end outbreak with multiple strong tornadoes was moisture quality/depth. 327 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH and 471 0-3 km SRH, along with 70 kt 0-6 km shear. Extremely impressive hodograph and shear profile.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[andyhb]

Likely the effect of the lake breeze. You'd probably have to get into late Spring/Summer (I.E Plainfield) to get the lake warm enough to not put a damper on things.

 

I meant more in the sense of "this can't keep happening forever".

[Hoosier]

Likely the effect of the lake breeze. You'd probably have to get into late Spring/Summer (I.E Plainfield) to get the lake warm enough to not put a damper on things.

 

 

Or have an event where the flow isn't really coming off the lake...3/4/61 and 4/21/67 are good tornado examples where the flow was more southerly.

[rolltide_130]

I meant more in the sense of "this can't keep happening forever".

True. As we both know the Dallas Metro saw their luck run out in December so it will happen in Chicago at some point again as well.

[Hoosier]

I meant more in the sense of "this can't keep happening forever".

 

 

Definitely been some luck involved.  Here's F3-F5 tornadoes in the immediate metro area...the first map is 1950-1979 and the second map is 1980-2014.  Notice the first map has a lot more and the time period is actually 5 years shorter than the second map.  I know at least a couple of tornadoes on the first map may have been overrated but that's still a pretty significant difference.  Grazulis records for pre-1950 suggests more frequent activity than what has been seen in the last 35 years, but it's possible that 50s-70s period (especially the 60s-70s) may have been unusually active.

 

 

 

 

 

[Stebo]

Definitely been some luck involved.  Here's F3-F5 tornadoes in the immediate metro area...the first map is 1950-1979 and the second map is 1980-2014.  Notice the first map has a lot more and the time period is actually 5 years shorter than the second map.  I know at least a couple of tornadoes on the first map may have been overrated but that's still a pretty significant difference.  Grazulis records for pre-1950 suggests more frequent activity than what has been seen in the last 35 years, but it's possible that 50s-70s period (especially the 60s-70s) may have been unusually active.

 

 

 

1.png

 

 

2.png

Interesting the parallels between Chicago missing out on big tornadoes and the entire state of Michigan missing out on big tornadoes runs back the same time period. MI hasn't had a F/EF4+ since 1977 in the entire state. Yet they had 9 from 1950 to 1977. One would think that eventually the other shoe drops for both cases.

[A-L-E-K]

not at all concerned about twisters here on the north lakefront

[Jonger]

Heavy rain with embedded hail/grapel/sleet mixed in just a few minutes ago.

[hm8]

Severe thunderstorm warning just issued here. Unexpected.

[Stebo]

Severe thunderstorm warning just issued here. Unexpected.

I am hoping the line pushes through before I leave for work, don't want to pull the trash to the street then have it blow over. What is with the windy days on trash day lately, getting old.

[hm8]

Line was dece, couple ~50mph LSRs coming out which is about what I experienced here. No lightning at all though.

[hm8]

 

 

 

[tornadohunter]

Picture of storm southwest of springfield yesterday. 

[Geos]

 

 

 

 

Sweet loops. 

 

Nice wall cloud in that shot Tornadohunter.

That little bit of orange/pink color makes the shot even cooler.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

 

 

 

Had some nice storms move through here early this morning with some pea size hail and lots of lightning.

[janetjanet998]

UBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
246 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016  
 
   
..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 03/15/2016 TORNADO EVENT  
 
ADDITIONAL SURVEYS ARE BEING COMPLETED AND WILL BE AVAILIBLE  
LATER IN THE DAY.  
   
TORNADO #1 - HAMPTON/RAPIDS CITY...IL  
 
RATING: EF-2  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 130 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 4.8 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 200 YARDS  
FATALITIES: 0  
INJURIES: 10  
 
START DATE: MAR 15 2016  
START TIME: 725 PM CDT  
START LOCATION: 2.5 SE HAMPTON / ROCK ISLAND / IL  
START LAT/LON: 41.5365 / -90.3624  
 
END DATE: MAR 15 2016  
END TIME: 735 PM CDT  
END LOCATION: 1.1 NNE RAPIDS CITY / ROCK ISLAND / IL  
END LAT/LON: 41.5918 / -90.3277  
 
AN EF-2 TORNADO TRACKED NORTH THEN CURVED TO THE EAST THROUGH  
UPPER ROCK ISLAND COUNTY. AN ESTIMATED 40 HOMES WERE DAMAGED  
WITH THE MOST SEVERE DAMAGE TO A NEIGHBORHOOD IN RURAL EAST  
MOLINE WHERE 4 HOMES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED. TEN PEOPLE  
REPORTED MINOR INJURIES.  
   
TORNADO #2 - MCCAUSLAND...IA  
 
RATING: EF-0  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.2 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS  
FATALITIES: 0  
INJURIES: 0  
 
START DATE: MAR 15 2016  
START TIME: 733 PM CDT  
START LOCATION: 1 NNE MCCAUSLAND / SCOTT / IA START LAT/LON:  
41.7592 / -90.4356  
 
END DATE: MAR 15 2016  
END TIME: 735 PM CDT  
END LOCATION: 1.8 NE MCCAUSLAND / CLINTON / IA  
END LAT/LON: 41.7579 / -90.4130  
 
AN EF-0 TORNADO CAUSED DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES.  
   
TORNADO #3 - LOW MOOR...IA  
 
RATING: EF-1  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.4 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 75 YARDS  
FATALITIES: 0  
INJURIES: AT LEAST 3  
 
START DATE: MAR 15 2016  
START TIME: 749 PM CDT  
START LOCATION: 1.7 E LOW MOOR / CLINTON / IA  
START LAT/LON: 41.8052 / -90.3175  
 
END DATE: MAR 15 2016  
END TIME: 751 PM CDT  
END LOCATION: 2.9 NE LOW MOOR / CLINTON / IA  
END LAT/LON: 41.8194 / -90.2995  
 
AN EF-1 TORNADO HIT A MOBILE HOME PARK, DESTROYING AT LEAST 5  
MOBILE HOMES AND DAMAGING NUMEROUS OTHERS. AT LEAST THREE PEOPLE  
WERE INJURED.  
   
TORNADO #4 - ANDOVER...IA  
 
RATING: EF-1  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 95 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3.4 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 300 YARDS  
FATALITIES: 0  
INJURIES: 0  
 
START DATE: MAR 15 2016  
START TIME: 757 PM CDT  
START LOCATION: 6.7 NW CLINTON  
START LAT/LON: 41.9164 / -90.2883  
 
END DATE: MAR 15 2016  
END TIME: 801 PM CDT  
END LOCATION: 1.7 SSW ANDOVER  
END LAT/LON: 41.9556 / -90.2488  
 
AN EF-1 TORNADO TRACKED NORTHEAST...DAMAGING MAINLY FARM  
OUTBUILDINGS AND TREES.  
   
TORNADO #5 - GOOD HOPE/ST AUGUSTINE...IL  
 
RATING: EF-2  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 115 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 16.0 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1800  
YARDS FATALITIES: 0  
INJURIES: 0  
 
START DATE: MAR 15 2016  
START TIME: 626 PM CDT  
START LOCATION: GOOD HOPE IL  
START LAT/LON: 40.5558 / -90.677  
 
END DATE: MAR 15 2016  
END TIME: 642 PM CDT  
END LOCATION: 2.5 S ST. AUGUSTINE  
END LAT/LON: 40.6840 / -90.4261  
 
AN EF-2 TORNADO TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MCDONOUGH  
COUNTY INTO SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY. THE DAMAGE WAS MAINLY TO  
FARM OUT BUILDINGS AND TREES... ALONG WITH SEVERAL HOMES WERE  
SEVERELY DAMAGED  
 
EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE  
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES BASED ON THE DAMAGE THEY CAUSE.  
 
EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH  
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH  
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH  
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH  
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH  
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH  
 

[Sidewinder]

Picture of storm southwest of springfield yesterday. 

Managed to make it to this cell as it was on the way out east of Springfield. Nice lightning, RFD and no rain. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Definitely been some luck involved.  Here's F3-F5 tornadoes in the immediate metro area...the first map is 1950-1979 and the second map is 1980-2014.  Notice the first map has a lot more and the time period is actually 5 years shorter than the second map.  I know at least a couple of tornadoes on the first map may have been overrated but that's still a pretty significant difference.  Grazulis records for pre-1950 suggests more frequent activity than what has been seen in the last 35 years, but it's possible that 50s-70s period (especially the 60s-70s) may have been unusually active.

 

 

 

1.png

 

 

2.png

Then you have places like Moore and Xenia who can't catch a break in either era   

 

[eureka22]

693   NOUS43 KILX 162303  PNSILX  ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>051-171115-    PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  603 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016     ..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 03/15/2016 TORNADO EVENT...UPDATED       TORNADO #1 - TRIVOLI/EDWARDS    RATING:                 EF-2  ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    125 MPH  PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  7.1 MILES  PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   440 YARDS  FATALITIES:             0  INJURIES:               0    START DATE:             MAR 15 2016   START TIME:             7:42 PM CDT  START LOCATION:         2.0 NW TRIVOLI (PEORIA COUNTY)  START LAT/LON:          40.7135 / -89.9146    END DATE:               MAR 15 2016  END TIME:               7:57 PM CDT  END LOCATION:           2.7 SW KICKAPOO (PEORIA COUNTY)  END LAT/LON:            40.7576 / -89.7831    THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRIVOLI ABOUT ONE-  QUARTER MILE WEST OF QUARRY ROAD. A GARAGE AND HOUSE ROOFS WERE DAMAGED,  A CAR WAS PICKED UP AND THROWN 50 YARDS INTO A FIELD, A PICKUP  TRUCK WAS DAMAGED AND SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED. AS THE TORNADO  APPROACHED TRIVOLI ROAD IT DEVELOPED MULTIPLE VORTICIES AND  WIDENED TO ABOUT ONE-QUARTER MILE ACROSS. SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS AND  GRAIN BINS WERE DESTROYED, HOUSE ROOFS WERE DAMAGED AND NUMEROUS  TREES WERE UPROOTED. NEAR TEXAS ROAD AND COTTONWOOD ROAD A ROOF ON  A CHURCH WAS SEVERELY DAMAGED AND SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED. AS  THE TORNADO CONTINUED TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST, MORE OUTBUILDINGS  AND TREES WERE DAMAGED. THE WORST DAMAGE OCCURRED TO A HOME ON  SOUTHPORT ROAD, BETWEEN CUTOFF ROAD AND KRAMM ROAD, WHERE THE ROOF  WAS COMPLETELY TORN OFF THE HOUSE, OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED AND  AT TREE WAS RIPPED OUT OF THE GROUND AND THROWN. THE TORNADO  DISSIPATED ABOUT 1 MILE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR KICKAPOO CREEK,  WHICH WAS ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE TOWN OF KICKAPOO.       TORNADO #2 - WEST EDGE OF SPRINGFIELD    RATING:                 EF-1  ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    105 MPH  PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  3.5 MILES  PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   75 YARDS  FATALITIES:             0  INJURIES:               0    START DATE:             MAR 15 2016   START TIME:             7:44 PM CDT  START LOCATION:         2.4 W CURRAN (SANGAMON COUNTY)  START LAT/LON:          39.7413 / -89.8146    END DATE:               MAR 15 2016  END TIME:               7:50 PM CDT   END LOCATION:           6.6 SSW DOWNTOWN SPRINGFIELD  END LAT/LON:            39.7738 / -89.7627    THIS TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG WERNER ROAD, ABOUT 3/4 MILE WEST  OF THE INTERSECTION WITH FARMINGDALE ROAD. A FEW PINE TREES WERE  BROKEN OFF IN THIS AREA, AND A HOME LOST SOME SHINGLES. THE  TORNADO TRACKED ACROSS MAINLY OPEN FIELDS AND CROSSED I-72 JUST  EAST OF FARMINGDALE ROAD AT 7:45 PM. IT TRACKED NORTHEAST AND  DAMAGED A HOUSE ALONG BUNKER HILL ROAD, BLOWING OUT A FEW WINDOWS,  REMOVING SOME SHINGLES, AND BREAKING SEVERAL TREES. IT CONTINUED  ACROSS OPEN FIELDS AND CAUSED SOME MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE TO A HOME  ALONG EMERSON ROAD ABOUT A QUARTER MILE SOUTH OF ILES AVENUE, AND  ALSO UPROOTED AND SNAPPED A FEW TREES. CONTINUING NORTHEAST, IT  CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A HOME ALONG ILES AVENUE, ABOUT 0.5  MILE EAST OF THE INTERSECTION WITH EMERSON ROAD, REMOVING MOST OF  THE ROOF AND BLOWING OUT A WALL ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUILDING.  THE STRONGEST PART OF THE TORNADO (WIND SPEEDS 100-105 MPH)  OCCURRED AT THIS LOCATION AT 7:49 PM. ACROSS THE STREET, A BARN  LOST ITS ROOF, AND SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED OFF. THE TORNADO  LIFTED IN AN OPEN FIELD SHORTLY AFTERWARD, AT 7:50 PM.       TORNADO #3 - PEORIA/PEORIA HEIGHTS    RATING: EF-0  ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80 MPH   PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3.8 MILES   PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 200 YARDS   FATALITIES: 0   INJURIES: 0    START DATE:             MAR 15 2016   START TIME:             8:05 PM CDT  START LOCATION:         4.0 NW PEORIA (DOWNTOWN)  START LAT/LON:          40.7300 / -89.6491    END DATE:               MAR 15 2016  END TIME:               8:14 PM CDT  END LOCATION:           1.0 NW PEORIA HEIGHTS  END LAT/LON:            40.7600 / -89.5925    A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN PEORIA NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF  RICHWOODS BOULEVARD AND MOLLECK DRIVE. DAMAGE WAS DONE TO THE  ROOF, GUTTERS, SOFFIT AND CEILING TILES OF THE ST. FRANCIS WOODS  SUPPORTIVE LIVING CENTER. THE TORNADO INTERMITTENTLY TOUCHED DOWN  ALONG A PATH TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CITY OF PEORIA. DAMAGE  WAS DONE TO ROOFS AND TREES NEAR UNIVERSITY AND CHRISTINE, THE  FARMER'S MARKET AT THE METRO CENTRE SHOPPING FACILITY, AND TREES  AT THE DONOVAN GOLF COURSE. THE TORNADO BROKE A POWER POLE, SNAPPED  A TREE WHICH FELL ONTO A GARAGE, AND DAMAGED SHINGLES AND SIDING  IN PEORIA HEIGHTS ON PROSPECT AND WICKWOOD ROADS. THE TORNADO  DISSIPATED SHORTLY AFTERWARDS, BEFORE IT APPROACHED FOREST PARK.    

 

 

GEELHART/BAK/SHIMON/SCHAFFER/MILLER  

 

[cyclone77]

Time lapse of the Good Hope IL tor.  Watch it on full screen for the best footage.  

 

Around the 27 second mark watch right straight ahead.  Right there is where the wall cloud starts dipping out of the elongated rain-free base, and then goes from there...