ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 BMI is up to 69/61 as of 10 minutes ago http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.47694&lon=-88.91583#.VuhO0vkrKM8 PNT, which is just NE of that, is up to 66/61. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.92327&lon=-88.6213#.VuhPi_krKM8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 HRRR now has another cell that looks somewhat organized on the IA/IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 that's the chicago storm special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Now two cells have "hooks" on the max res HRRR. Also should note that 0-1km SRH on those cells goes up to 1200m/s. Definitely seeing tornado producers Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 So what is preventing this from being a big big time event? Directional shear is amazing from SFC-500mb, instability is nothing to laugh at being 1000-2000J/KG, and both 0-1K and 0-3K helicities are impressive. Is timing the main issue or? Haven't been paying a ton of attention to this, but everything looks pretty great to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 So what is preventing this from being a big big time event? Directional shear is amazing from SFC-500mb, instability is nothing to laugh at being 1000-2000J/KG, and both 0-1K and 0-3K helicities are impressive. Is timing the main issue or? Haven't been paying a ton of attention to this, but everything looks pretty great to me. I'd say it's moisture quality...it should be good enough for some tors but a little lacking for a big tornado outbreak. Then you have the narrowing warm sector with time and questionable convective coverage where instability is good enough later tonight, which keeps the better tornado threat relatively confined. As other people have been mentioning though, there's a pretty consistent model signal for a long track cell or two...and sometimes one or two cells can make an outbreak, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The 15z, 16z, and 17z HRRR runs all have big cell (supercell) at about White Hall at about 23z. Lots of model agreement on one cell. You don't see that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 If the supercell HRRR has been flaunting verifies, that could easily be an event maker IMO. Stays completely discrete for 8 hours, probably creating a long swath of large-very large hail and tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 So what is preventing this from being a big big time event? Directional shear is amazing from SFC-500mb, instability is nothing to laugh at being 1000-2000J/KG, and both 0-1K and 0-3K helicities are impressive. Is timing the main issue or? Haven't been paying a ton of attention to this, but everything looks pretty great to me.In my opinion, it's probably the moisture quality. I've seen situations with dewps in the mid 50's, but for a big outbreak the overall availability doesn't seem to be too supportive. I would not be surprised to see one of two storms go "classic supercell" and drop a strong, photogenic tornado or two. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 60/56 here with the sun finally breaking through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 60/56 here with the sun finally breaking through You in DeKalb? That's actually better than I figured it would be at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Update from ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 You in DeKalb? Yep. On the south side, a mile south of 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Yep. On the south side, a mile south of 88 Bumped into the 60s here now with a lot of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 So what is preventing this from being a big big time event? Directional shear is amazing from SFC-500mb, instability is nothing to laugh at being 1000-2000J/KG, and both 0-1K and 0-3K helicities are impressive. Is timing the main issue or? Haven't been paying a ton of attention to this, but everything looks pretty great to me. Surface dewpoint depressions are somewhat high and I actually thought 1km SRH was about average or even below average at least on the west side of the risk area. But, like you said pretty good instability and deep layer shear though. And with lower wet buib zero heights I was thinking hail would be the primary threat today. I still think there are pretty high odds for at least 1 or 2 tornadoes (if not more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 bigcell.gif Man. If that pops as projected, there is nothing around it to cause it any issues. Could be looking at a serious long track tornado and hail threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Temp actually dropped off some here. 46° with low clouds currently. HRRR 18z, pops the first cell around 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Temp actually dropped off some here. 46° with low clouds currently. mixing later for the upper elevations of Mt. Geos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Oddly, it has sort of the look of the six-state supercell of March 12 2006. It's pretty unlikely that one supercell tracks over 100 mi though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 As of 259 EDT Liking the looks of things so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Appears the warm front and morning outflow boundary remain separate entities, bullish for tornadoes. WF is up in northern IL. Elevated right mover on the WF is a hint of what to expect farther south on the OFB later. Central Illinois cell remains robust on the HRRR because it is on the intersection of the pre-frontal trough and outflow boundary. Said cell is forecast to turn hard right. Not trusting the model blindly, it lines up with the meteorology fundamentals. I would absolutely target the central Illinois cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 mixing later for the upper elevations of Mt. Geos? ha Winds are ENE right now. The SE winds should warm it up some. Looking forward to the first thunder since 12/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 For posterity... HRRR runs centered on "The Cell" since 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Seeing some less than desirable T/Td spreads for tornadoes in northeast MO/central IL now, which will have to be watched. As we get past peak heating, should see the spreads tighten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 ha Winds are ENE right now. The SE winds should warm it up some. Looking forward to the first thunder since 12/28. I got really lucky on 02/02 and got some thundersnow but haven't had a real tstm since 12/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Seeing some less than desirable T/Td spreads for tornadoes in northeast MO/central IL now, which will have to be watched. As we get past peak heating, should see the spreads tighten. Yeah but the storms will initiate a few hours past peak heating... so it's going to get slightly worse before it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 DVN sounding from 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I think that is the most volitile HRRR run yet. Definitely going to be some large hail in there. Hopefully for those chasing, those supercells produce tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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