hlcater Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 ^^ 23Z, that would be 7pm? almost too dark to chase for long 23z is 6PM central time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 12z SPC WRF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 23z is 6PM central timeAnd sunset isn't until around 7PM anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Thanks, will be coming from Indy so I'm on est. Would make it easier to see that cell take a right turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Southern cell has a hook echo on this particular run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Enhanced is expanded further East to around Ottawa, IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Looks like the HRRR took a supercell radar image, smoothed it, and sent it through Illinois. The areas around Springfield would really need to watch out if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 And sunset isn't until around 7PM anyway. you gonna hedge that target area a bit east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 SPC finally added the large hail hatched area in the ENH risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Enhanced area is hatched now for hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Dewpoints south of the warm front are actually higher than I thought they'd be at this point. BMI at 61/60 as of 16z. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Good sign, though it looks like they are the only place in that area with a 60 degree dew at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Usually when the HRRR is very consistent with showing a lone supercell tracking a long distance over the same location run after run, it ends up verifying. I would really be watching that area in NE MO for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Temps in the 60's up to I-80. Sitting at 53/52 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Consistency on that southern beast has been noteworthy. Will be a pretty impressive performance if something like that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Good sign, though it looks like they are the only place in that area with a 60 degree dew at this time. Yeah we are sitting at 64/57 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Issue for later is how quickly do storms outrun the surface based instability axis. You can see there's some respectable surface based instability left even at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 HRRR has been hinting at long track potential into southern LOT with that southern most cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 you gonna hedge that target area a bit east?Still targeting the Keokuk-Hannibal area, maybe a bit east.Just left a shirt time ago, so should make it there as initiation is occurring in NW. MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 HRRR has been hinting at long track potential into southern LOT with that southern most cell It's still there on the 16z run, but farther south this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 If this verifies, big victory for near-term modeling. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Satellite shows a lot of clear skies once you get into central/southern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Satellite shows a lot of clear skies once you get into central/southern IL. Still sitting at mid-upper 50's dews across IL. Mixing out could become a problem with the sun breaking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Consistency on that southern beast has been noteworthy. Will be a pretty impressive performance if something like that verifies. HRRR has that monster only 5-10 miles north of where I live.... so if something like that occurs I'll definitely be chasing 70/57 here currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 BMI 64/60, FSW 66/61 everything looks pretty much on track IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 DP's up to the 56-60 range in SE. IA down into W. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Scott air force Base about 20 miles ESE of STL has 73/60 at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Central IL clearing on schedule it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 65/61 now at KPNT Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Can't believe how warm it feels here. 73 on the thermometer and it actually feels a little sticky. Would be interesting if the HRRR verifies because that monster would be right near me. I haven't chased since college really but I might try tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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