Chambana Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 First off excellent analysis from everyone in this thread, truly has been some great reading! Just really hoping to get in on the first boomer of the season tonight.. Cyclone should you decide to chase later, will be looking forward to your pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 looking even lamer than yesterday for Chicagoland still looks solid over the radar hole of far W. IL, NE MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Pretty decent hail core on the southeast IA cell. 63.5 dBZ up to almost 22 kft AGL on the latest scan from KLOT. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 First off excellent analysis from everyone in this thread, truly has been some great reading! Just really hoping to get in on the first boomer of the season tonight.. Cyclone should you decide to chase later, will be looking forward to your pics. Not sure if I'm gonna go now looking at how it slowed down even more. By the time I get down to west-central IL I'd only have about an hour's worth of daylight left. Doesn't make for much of a fun chase. Hate to pass an event up this close to home though. Guess I'll see how things look when I get off at 4. Gonna feel like a rat on a sinking ship all afternoon lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Small Enhanced introduced in West Central Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Have an initial target of Keokuk-Hannibal corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Looking like a few long track supercell thunderstorms are a distinct possibility this afternoon and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Small Enhanced introduced in West Central Illinois. Added a 10% TOR with it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I'm a bit surprised at the 10% tor given the moisture questions but 30% hail is quite reasonable in the ENH area. Looking farther northeast I think the hail threat could be respectable this evening including Chicago. High res guidance is consistent on maintaining discrete or semi discrete structures with northeastward extent, which makes sense given the strong deep layer shear and veering profile. BUFKIT soundings for ORD on much of the guidance also showing pretty fat CAPE in the -10 to -30 C hail zone this evening of near or above 500 j/kg, owing to the very steep midlevel lapse rates. In addition, freezing levels/wet bulb zero heights will be low and supportive of efficient hail production in more intense storms. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I'm a bit surprised at the 10% tor given the moisture questions but 30% hail is quite reasonable in the ENH area. Looking farther northeast I think the hail threat could be respectable this evening including Chicago. High res guidance is consistent on maintaining discrete or semi discrete structures with northeastward extent, which makes sense given the strong deep layer shear and veering profile. BUFKIT soundings for ORD on much of the guidance also showing pretty fat CAPE in the -10 to -30 C hail zone this evening of near or above 500 j/kg, owing to the very steep midlevel lapse rates. In addition, freezing levels/wet bulb zero heights will be low and supportive of efficient hail production in more intense storms. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 HRRR has been consistent with a semi isolated sup running a bit further east across central il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 HRRR has been consistent with a semi isolated sup running a bit further east across central il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 HRRR has been consistent with a semi isolated sup running a bit further east across central il That would be very chaseable on that path. Best of luck out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Look out Springfield IL and environs. Shades of March 12, 2006 if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Look out Springfield IL and environs. Shades of March 12, 2006 if this happens. Yeah, that would be a pretty bad scenario for Springfield, Decatur, Etc. Obviously not getting too wrapped up in a few images, but like the possibility of a few tor today. Hoping too see some hailers up towards mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 64/56 at Springfield IL. now at 10 a.m. CDT. If we get dews pooling today things might become significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 big boy is still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Quad cities look good that's for sure. That's a nasty looking cell heading towards my neck of the woods too. Alek you should get boomers. Shouldn't be a zzz for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 it's definitely going to be zzzzz up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Dr. Forbes just raised the TORCON to 6 TODAY 3/15Severe thunderstorms develop in late afternoon in southeast IA,northeast MO and spread across IL, west and south-central INby evening and possibly develop in the evening in west KY and west TN. TORCON - 6 central and northwest IL; 4 southeast IN, northeast MO, south IL, northeast IL, west and south-central IN; 2 to 3 west KY and west TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Dr. Forbes just raised the TORCON to 6 He also has the entire east half of Illinois (including Chicago) and west half of Indiana at 5 for tonight. TONIGHT 3/15-16 Severe thunderstorms in east IL, west IN and possibly extreme southeast WI may turn into a squall line by midnight, moving across IN into west OH and possibly into south MI. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may develop in west and central KY, west and middle TN, north MS, northwest AL. TORCON - 5 east IL, west IN; 3 east IN, west KY, west TN; 2 rest of area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 63/57 in crawfordsville Indiana. Measured with kerstel 3000 at 2 meters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 big boy is still there . That is nice! can't wait to see if that really unfolds later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 2nd tornado verified from yesterday in Arcanum Ohio. No rating at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Dewpoints south of the warm front are actually higher than I thought they'd be at this point. BMI at 61/60 as of 16z. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 That southern cell looks formidable. 14z HRRR Hoosier might want to look out later. Hi-res models keep on showing a cell heading towards NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Strongly recommend east of the Mississippi River for a couple reasons. First the logistics is better. Who wants to worry about a river crossing during the chase? Pre-frontal trough is forecast ahead of the cold front. I would chase the intersection of the prefrontal trough and warm front / outflow boundary. I would not bite on any early cold front cells. Wait for 1-2 to go on the prefrontal trough farther east. HRRR suggests a right moving beast on the prefrontal trough and warm front intersection, well into central Illinois and way east of the River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Consistent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Southern cell has a hook echo on this particular run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 ^^ 23Z, that would be 7pm? almost too dark to chase for long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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