The_Global_Warmer Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The rap has mid 80s in East Central MO at 18z along an area of low dews. 925mb temps in the 22-23C range. Maybe some compressional heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 big capping issue tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Noticeable increase in mid level lapse rates on the 00z NAM. There's >8C at 700-500 mb in northern IL at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 0z NAM is WAY west now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 0z NAM is WAY west now... And slower. In Iowa now around 0z. Then by the time line approaches it is late at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Anyone familiar with the SARS analog system on the SHARPy soundings, particularly the hail part, and if it's a good indicator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Anyone familiar with the SARS analog system on the SHARPy soundings, particularly the hail part, and if it's a good indicator? I don't know too much about it, but I've questioned the relevance of some of the analogs. Can an analog from Dodge City in May be a good analog for Illinois in March? I know for the February event in the Carolinas a few weeks back it was showing an analog from Oshkosh, WI for a June event. Now, I don't know what goes into the analog set, but I question the cold season to warm season and different regions being used and how much you can take from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 0z GFS is slower, and also with higher DP's. 60F DP's up to around I-80 by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I don't know too much about it, but I've questioned the relevance of some of the analogs. Can an analog from Dodge City in May be a good analog for Illinois in March? I know for the February event in the Carolinas a few weeks back it was showing an analog from Oshkosh, WI for a June event. Now, I don't know what goes into the analog set, but I question the cold season to warm season and different regions being used and how much you can take from that. Thanks...was just wondering because I was looking at the NAM for this area tomorrow evening and a couple of the analogs (one from Jan and another from Apr) were showing huge hail. I guess I can understand why it was bullish given MUCAPE 2500+ and strong shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 0z GFS is slower, and also with higher DP's. 60F DP's up to around I-80 by 0z. You going to bite on this one and chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 0z GFS is slower, and also with higher DP's. 60F DP's up to around I-80 by 0z. It should probably be noted the values now near the Gulf Coast are considerably lower in many places compared to what the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Guess we shouldn't be too surprised to see this slow down even further. Have definitely seen that many times before. Love the fact that the surface low will be quickly intensifying later tomorrow afternoon through the evening. Moisture will hopefully be just enough to allow for a small area of legit tor potential. With sort of a convergent triangle of surface flow just southeast of the surface low hopefully that will help to pool the moisture southeast of the deepening low. HRRRX shows a real nice arc of supercells over west-central IL 00-01z tomorrow. At this point after I get off work tomorrow I plan on heading south towards Galesburg, or Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 0z SPC WRF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 You going to bite on this one and chase?Yea, I'll be out there unless things trend downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 0z SPC WRF... Man that cell it has crossing central IL is a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Man that cell it has crossing central IL is a monster.No doubt... Runs from WNW of the STL metro in E-C. Missouri, up through C. IL, and into N-C. Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Man that cell it has crossing central IL is a monster. Take a look at how long it keeps a helicity track going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Take a look at how long it keeps a helicity track going. If this setup had higher BL moisture content, I think we'd easily be looking at a mod+ risk tomorrow. Might give the best chances for something significant to be near the triple point (wherever that decides to set up shop) where low level shear will be stronger earlier and there may be some pooling of higher dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Wonder if they will upgrade to ENH on the 6z outlook. You need 10% tornado or 30% wind or 30% hail. I still have some doubts about convective coverage though the setup with the rapidly deepening sfc/upper air system would make you think that coverage would be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Hard to see, but it looks like the WRF ARW has some pretty good cells near Cyclone tomorrow evening. Forms into a line further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Moisture is pretty shallow though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The rap has an unusual area along the front in the low levels where moisture mixes out and temps rocket to near 90F over far East Central MO during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Wonder if they will upgrade to ENH on the 6z outlook. You need 10% tornado or 30% wind or 30% hail. I still have some doubts about convective coverage though the setup with the rapidly deepening sfc/upper air system would make you think that coverage would be decent.I could see them going with an ENH for hail on the 06z outlook, not expecting a 10% tor yet given the questions on moisture quality/depth. My guess is a 5% tor in west central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Moisture is pretty shallow though... This might actually be a positive early on so the cap doesn't break until later when the shear increases (seems most of the models indicate moistening around 850 mb as the boundary moves east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 New NSSL WRF brings 60-62 dews up into west central IL at 00z. Nice convergence of moisture there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I could see them going with an ENH for hail on the 06z outlook, not expecting a 10% tor yet given the questions on moisture quality/depth. My guess is a 5% tor in west central IL. Agreed, I wouldn't be shocked if it was a 30/hatched for hail as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 New NSSL WRF brings 60-62 dews up into west central IL at 00z. Nice convergence of moisture there. If fires a huge cell in E MO and moves it into central IL, somewhat similar to the EMC/SPC WRF. The deep moisture here (to 850 mb) will be far more important (as it usually is) than the actual dewpoint near the surface as long as there isn't a huge T/Td spread. If we can get some areas >10˚C at H85, would think that would open the door to something strong and isolated given the amount of low level backing present near the warm front by 00z. The amount of cold air aloft will ensure there will be ample CAPE if this does come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Just looked at the day one outlook on Kamala, and no Enhanced, and they cut back the eastern edge of the slight risk slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Agreed, I wouldn't be shocked if it was a 30/hatched for hail as well.Stuck with a slight for now. Somewhat surprised in no hatched hail mention colocated with the 5% tor probs over northeast MO/southeast IA/west central IL. Based on latest trends, the placement of tornado probs is very reasonable I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Stuck with a slight for now. Somewhat surprised in no hatched hail mention colocated with the 5% tor probs over northeast MO/southeast IA/west central IL. Based on latest trends, the placement of tornado probs is very reasonable I think. I would have gone with hatched with the hail, the lapse rates are very impressive and there is enough MLCAPE/shear for great vertical motion and updraft strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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