andyhb Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 For some unknown reason, the plots changed all of a sudden this evening and now have much more muted values. Even previous days that were lit up with high SCP % are now more muted as well. The scale was shifted upwards to account for climatological purposes. Many of those days are still showing the same large values they were before, it's just not enough to trigger the reds like it was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 The scale was shifted upwards to account for climatological purposes. Many of those days are still showing the same large values they were before, it's just not enough to trigger the reds like it was before.Thanks, that makes sense, guess they just have a cutoff day when the new range is applied. It was just jarring how it happened today and made it appear that values changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Will never forget June 6 and intercepting that EF4 tornado east of Toledo. I knew there was one there but when I saw it through the Lightning and realized I was on a violent wedge I was purely awestruck. Late May-Early June really is our prime time honestly, that's when the real summertime heat begins to move into the region and we get that perfect combo of systems and instability These may have been posted before, but here are severe graphs for IWX for 1980-2010: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 this spring has had a 2010 vibe to it locally and the number back that as well, we all know how that June went and the CFS is showing very active period ahead. Timing of course is always the wild card.I'm thinking 2010 is the best analog for the Lakes region as well. The number of moderate/strong El Nino to moderate/strong La Nina transitions is small, but O doubt a 1988 or 1995 like outcome at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Saturday Night A chance of showers before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. West northwest wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.I swear, if we get frost I'm quitting my job and moving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Problem I've been seeing lately is a lot of people think that means wall-to-wall tors, which it doesn't.Yeah I knoe, it just means there is a good amount of instability with some shear in place, doesn't take in capping potential or mesoscale issues. That being said even at face value it is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Thanks, that makes sense, guess they just have a cutoff day when the new range is applied. It was just jarring how it happened today and made it appear that values changed. Yeah I was going to say the scale changed. That being said these values are pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 I'm thinking 2010 is the best analog for the Lakes region as well. The number of moderate/strong El Nino to moderate/strong La Nina transitions is small, but O doubt a 1988 or 1995 like outcome at this point.Yeah both those years the plains got little rain in the spring, this year the exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Summer weather is so boring, this is all I need to know what to expect in a day. Not joking, it's extremely convenient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 May 14th in Indiana - 45° NW winds @ 20 MPH and Lake Effect Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Christ is cold and windy here in IL where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Chance of sleet in the P&C and we've been rained out all month because the ground has been too soggy to move machines without completely destroying the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Straight snow has been reported up just north of Milwaukee in some of the heavier showers. It's been slowing getting anything done outside this spring involving digging or planting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 I'm 11 miles due south of MDW and can see my breath. Got a bonfire going with a bottle of Jameson. Fall is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 What crappy pattern middle of may and its low 50's and upper 30's at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 I'm interested to get back up to the in-laws cabin on Lake Michigan in the UP to see what near record water levels look like. Hard to believe it's 4 feet higher than 4 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 I got a water level pic to share later when I'm on my computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 I got a water level pic to share later when I'm on my computer Oh, I'm sure I could find a bunch of webcams, but this cottage has a notoriously sucky beach due to a landform jetting out into the lake and blocking the wave action to move the muck and other crap out. If the land in red is covered, it might clean up the area in blue. Just an idea I have always wondered about, I have never been there during a high water period. We walk along the beach to the area to the south and it's amazing... But I still want to see it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Noticing the rising lake levels on Michigan too. Beaches are definitely more narrow than this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 this was taken at foster beach this weekend to the left of the broken break wall was the old dog beach...there is a now under water deck and the sand used to extend about to where the break wall separating the two beaches ends...the main beach has probably lost 20'+ in sand. It has been a dramatic increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 And the craziness is it's still 19 inches lower than the highest ever recorded May water level in 1986. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Yeah, '86 was nuts! Seen homes collapsing into Lk. Michigan south of Holland after a storm. Must've been that autumn. Don't need these extremes, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 And the craziness is it's still 19 inches lower than the highest ever recorded May water level in 1986. Suttons Bay 1986 I can't find an image of the same angle... but this is what it looked like a couple years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Water level charts. Michigan and Huron haven't been this high since 1998. http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/dashboard/GLWLD.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 I think I could count the amount of times I've heard thunder so far this spring on one hand, it's a little off topic but I was just thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 I think I could count the amount of times I've heard thunder so far this spring on one hand, it's a little off topic but I was just thinking about it. Ha, ha I know. It's the banter thread - about anything goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Yeah a muted severe season was to be expected with very strong Nino conditions persisting most of spring, in fact the last 3 seasons have been sorta "meh" Oh well.. Next year almost definitely promises to be better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 As was mentioned earlier, 2010 had a good flip in severe weather in later spring into summer so hopefully something similar happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 17, 2016 Author Share Posted May 17, 2016 The 12Z GFS around hour 200 has a sizable severe threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Yeah, '86 was nuts! Seen homes collapsing into Lk. Michigan south of Holland after a storm. Must've been that autumn. Don't need these extremes, that's for sure. Wasn't 1986 the year of the floods in Flint or Saginaw or somewhere around there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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