SchaumburgStormer Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Yeah, with no severe to speak of; board will be a desolate place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 We are having a great stretch of dry, pleasant weather so I can get all my garden planting done. Next week, however, I'm really hoping we can get in on some thunderstorm action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 We are having a great stretch of dry, pleasant weather so I can get all my garden planting done. Next week, however, I'm really hoping we can get in on some thunderstorm action. I'm not complaining about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 I put 2000 miles on last winter. The planet being .8C warmer doesn't reduce my snow. Gonna need quite a bit more than that. Hey that 1.8 °F is going to completely change our winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Hey that 1.8 °F is going to completely change our winters Our winters down here suck anyhow (for my needs). My area of interest is pretty far inside the snow belt to really worry about 1.8F of warming. As long as we are in a trough or zonal flow I'm fine. Last December we had the warmest anomaly on planet earth and that hurt me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Our winters down here suck anyhow (for my needs). My area of interest is pretty far inside the snow belt to really worry about 1.8F of warming. As long as we are in a trough or zonal flow I'm fine. Last December we had the warmest anomaly on planet earth and that hurt me though. I think we're in a perfect spot overall but I agree. I could use a little more warmth for my golf game and a little more cold for pond hockey season but you can't have it all. There's still late Dec-early March where the ponds are frozen usually and mid April-October where the courses are playing in proper condition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 I put 2000 miles on last winter. The planet being .8C warmer doesn't reduce my snow. Gonna need quite a bit more than that. The planet being .8C warmer has not translated to our winters, and even if it did, would have little effect on snow. And besides...you as a snowmobiler in this state have it made. Our winters down here are better than theyve ever been, snowbelts line this state, and there is always snowpack up north no matter what the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 The planet being .8C warmer has not translated to our winters, and even if it did, would have little effect on snow. This is kind of a dumb assumption. I don't think you realize how significant of a global rise that actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 This is kind of a dumb assumption. I don't think you realize how significant of a global rise that actually is. It's significant but the issue is that increased global temps don't show up in every region of the world in the same way. Let's go with what he said though and apply that level of warming here...an increase of 1-2F in winter in the Lakes probably isn't enough to have big effects. Most noticeable might be less snowcover days/a somewhat shorter winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 It's significant but the issue is that increased global temps don't show up in every region of the world in the same way. Let's go with what he said though and apply that level of warming here...an increase of 1-2F in winter in the Lakes probably isn't enough to have big effects. Most noticeable might be less snowcover days/a somewhat shorter winter season. I understand that, but he's using the example as if it did. I would think the second bolded thing would be a pretty substantial change, to be fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 I understand that, but he's using the example as if it did. I would think the second bolded thing would be a pretty substantial change, to be fair. Josh put together a snowcover duration chart not too long ago and it had no trend either way. I'm pretty sure this was Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 It's significant but the issue is that increased global temps don't show up in every region of the world in the same way. Let's go with what he said though and apply that level of warming here...an increase of 1-2F in winter in the Lakes probably isn't enough to have big effects. Most noticeable might be less snowcover days/a somewhat shorter winter season. That is a good post hoosier and I agree, however I refuse to get roped into some debate, especially on this subforum. What I really wanted to say was "The planet being .8C warmer has not translated to our winters.", and end the sentence right there, however you simply can’t make such statements on this board without including a nod to agw or else some will immediately go on the defensive. As the planet has heated up our winters locally have steadily grown more severe over the last 2 decades, and this includes snowcover. I dont know what the future holds (no one does) but I can tell you that for anyone hoping for milder, shorter, or less snowy winters in this area as the planet heats up, things are certainly going the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Looks like AGW got rid of severe. Seems like as a kid we had more storms. If I hadn't woken up at 2 am a few weeks ago, I wouldn't have heard thunder once this year. Maybe the season is just shorter and less severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Josh put together a snowcover duration chart not too long ago and it had no trend either way. I'm pretty sure this was Josh. The winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 with their constant snowcover were not normal. A typical winter, while more snowcovered than not, will have some bare periods. So if anything, I dont even really think we would see much of a decrease in snowcover if our winters warmed 1-2F, judging by readily available data of milder than normal winters. I would think it would be the far north that would see a difference, places that always see wire to wire snowcover, with a few days chopped off at the beginning and end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 It's significant but the issue is that increased global temps don't show up in every region of the world in the same way. Let's go with what he said though and apply that level of warming here...an increase of 1-2F in winter in the Lakes probably isn't enough to have big effects. Most noticeable might be less snowcover days/a somewhat shorter winter season. Less snowcover days further south would have a positive feedback to it though, case in point the difference between a Fort Wayne winter vs Evansville is pretty substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Looks like AGW got rid of severe. Seems like as a kid we had more storms. If I hadn't woken up at 2 am a few weeks ago, I wouldn't have heard thunder once this year. Maybe the season is just shorter and less severe. severe is more hit and miss, and I do not follow it as closely, so i can not say with any certainty as I can with winter data...however I most definitely experienced more severe weather in the 1990s to early 2000s than I have the last 12-14 years or so. Not even close. Again though...just talking about my specific area of SE MI. You would need an actual chart of severe reports to see if theres ACTUALLY a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 severe is more hit and miss, and I do not follow it as closely, so i can not say with any certainty as I can with winter data...however I most definitely experienced more severe weather in the 1990s to early 2000s than I have the last 12-14 years or so. Not even close. Again though...just talking about my specific area of SE MI. You would need an actual chart of severe reports to see if theres ACTUALLY a trend. In the 1990's summers in Howell, we had storms every other evening like clockwork in July-august. Those days are long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 In the 1990's summers in Howell, we had storms every other evening like clockwork in July-august. Those days are long gone. I was doing a quick and dirty look at severe especially for DTX's area the other day. Last several years we have averaged around 120 severe warnings for the CWA, except last year which was only 67. The last year and a half has been void of severe weather which is why it seems so lackluster. I think that will change though especially going into this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 In the 1990's summers in Howell, we had storms every other evening like clockwork in July-august. Those days are long gone. The 1990's and early 2000's were insane for storms. Ever since like May of 2004, which almost was like some grand finale of sorts, it seems like we can't buy severe weather outside of a few isolated incidents here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 severe is more hit and miss, and I do not follow it as closely, so i can not say with any certainty as I can with winter data...however I most definitely experienced more severe weather in the 1990s to early 2000s than I have the last 12-14 years or so. Not even close. Again though...just talking about my specific area of SE MI. You would need an actual chart of severe reports to see if theres ACTUALLY a trend. It's cyclical. We also didn't have a ton of severe weather during the cold period of the 1970s / early 1980s either, but on the flip side, the Winers sucked during the 1990s / aearly 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 It's cyclical. We also didn't have a ton of severe weather during the cold period of the 1970s / early 1980s either, but on the flip side, the Winers sucked during the 1990s / aearly 2000s. While reading through the posts, cyclical is what I was thinking. However, after thinking about it, it seems severe in this part of the country could more accurately be described a sporadic. It seems to hit in fits and starts more than a regular cycle. It would be interesting to look at the stats. If I ever get time to play, I'll check them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 It's cyclical. We also didn't have a ton of severe weather during the cold period of the 1970s / early 1980s either, but on the flip side, the Winers sucked during the 1990s / aearly 2000s. Some of my most memorable severe weather is 1997-2002. Winter in that time stretch, save for January 1999 and December 2000, was mega forgettable. A switch then flipped, & we have been getting buried in snow while severe went by the wayside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 It's cyclical. We also didn't have a ton of severe weather during the cold period of the 1970s / early 1980s either, but on the flip side, the Winers sucked during the 1990s / aearly 2000s. From '74 to '84 we had plenty of severe in Genesee County where I was a youth. Wicked electrical storms, lots of severe warned storms with hail and winds, etc. Tors in '74 (half mile north of my parent's place) and narrowly missed my work office in Flint (again by 1/2 mi) in '84 just to name the 2 personally impactful. Can't say about the '90's as I had moved to the Northland, then to S. Bend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpguy Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Haven't been keeping up...but I guess it's safe to say no conference this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Haven't been keeping up...but I guess it's safe to say no conference this year? Nothing in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 If anyone wants a summer outlook to read: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/48328-my-summer-outlook-2016/#entry4120791 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 If anyone wants a summer outlook to read: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/48328-my-summer-outlook-2016/#entry4120791 Don't agree with 1988 being used as an analog, that was a runaway train drought in the plains that extended into the midwest, this spring has been about as opposite as you can get both here and there. 83 isn't a bad analog though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Don't agree with 1988 being used as an analog, that was a runaway train drought in the plains that extended into the midwest, this spring has been about as opposite as you can get both here and there. 83 isn't a bad analog though. Took a quick look at 1966 and 1983 for Chicago...both summers had more 90 degree days than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Took a quick look at 1966 and 1983 for Chicago...both summers had more 90 degree days than average. Yeah both had above normal July and 1983 was above normal for August for DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Gimme '83 pls. Lake Michigan was bath water, clear up to the Straights. Fantastic beach-n-boat summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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