janetjanet998 Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 6, 2016 Author Share Posted March 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The flooding is going to be historic in places. The 00z ECWMF gives a large swath of the area 12" of rain with a bullseye of 17.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 8, 2016 Author Share Posted March 8, 2016 The flooding is going to be historic in places. The 00z ECWMF gives a large swath of the area 12" of rain with a bullseye of 17.4". and the 12z GFS remains active after day 10....this will be a developing story as time goes on the lower Red/Atchafalaya and lower MS rivers might be interesting how the flood control will work out at Red River landing if both rivers go into major flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Drove through Arkansas and east Texas last weekend and rivers were already high to begin with... This could be a disaster waiting to happen this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 8, 2016 Author Share Posted March 8, 2016 18z GFS has a spot of 15 inches next 84 hours over central AR (plus another 1-3 inches next week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 It's a perfect setup. Closed ULL over MX with a direct feed from the Gulf thanks to the cyclonic flow on the East side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 SE side of Shreveport getting trained 615 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA...SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN MILLER COUNTIES...CADDO...WEST CENTRAL BIENVILLE... BOSSIER...WEBSTER...DE SOTO...WEST CENTRAL CLAIBORNE AND NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISHES... AT 610 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SPOTTERS AND AMATEUR ARE REPORTING WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROADS OR FLOODED ROADWAYS IN SHREVEPORT PROPER AND THE STONEWALL AREAS. RADAR IS ESTIMATING WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 5.68 inches in Bossier City at the airforce base similar amounts over the SE side of shreveport in the past 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Shreveport radar is undoing the total rainfall so far by 40-50%. Shreveport (DTN) has 3.1" as of 7 pm CDT. SHV 3.41" Minden Airport to the east has 4.5" radar showing ~2" and ~3" at those locales currently. Likely 6-7"+ to the SE of the city now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 water in homes, water rescues the train has moved SE of shreveport but looks like it trying to edge north again I wont even mention the RAP which keeps this train going all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1243 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016 ..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 600 AM CST * AT 1237 AM CST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO REPORT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR. HIGH WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN ONGOING...AND MANY HIGHWAYS AND ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER FROM FLOODING. HIGH WATER IS ALSO AFFECTING SOME HOMES IN BOSSIER AND WEBSTER PARISHES AS WELL AS OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HAUGHTON...STONEWALL...SIBLEY... DOYLINE...DIXIE INN...DUBBERLY...EASTWOOD...KEACHI...GRAND CANE... LONGSTREET...NOLES LANDING...MC DADE...ROBSON...KEAT CHIE...TAYLORTOWN... FILLMORE AND COUCHWOOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 bossier LA now at over 9 inches monroe over 7 SHV airport over 5 RAP keep trains going all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 At 5 am CDT Barksdale AFB 10.90" SHV 5.97" Monroe 7.95" Minden 9.69" 0435 AM 03/09/2016 FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY MNGR MINDEN WEBSTER LA 32.62 - 93.28 Remarks: ALL MAJOR ROADWAYS ON THE SOUTH END OF WEBSTER PARISH ARE FLOODED AND CLOSED. TRAVEL IS VERY DIFFICULT EVEN WHERE IT IS POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATERS ARE DEEP ENOUGH TO SWEEP A VEHICLE OFF THE ROAD. SOME OF THESE ROADS HAVE WASHED OUT. Current radar continues to be very ugly for NW LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 548 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016 ..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 900 AM CST * AT 541 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO REPORT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR. NUMEROUS HIGH WATER RESCUES HAVE OCCURRED... AND MANY HIGHWAYS AND ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER FROM FLOODING. HIGH WATER IS ALSO AFFECTING SOME HOMES IN BOSSIER AND WEBSTER PARISHES AS WELL AS OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 615 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016 VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS .BR SHV 0309 C DH00/TAIRZX/DH06/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ : : MAX MIN :ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN SHV : SHREVEPORT : 74 / 60 / 6.33 DTN : SHV DOWNTOWN : 74 / 60 / 7.17 BAD : BARKSDALE AFB : 73 / 58 / 11.39 MLU : MONROE : 79 / 60 / 7.98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Right around 7" in Hideaway so far. Lots more to come. High water rescues ongoing in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Very heavy rainfall moving back into the Shreveport area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 Looks like the heaviest train has pushed SE of SHV but moderate rain will continue PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 816 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0815 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SE BOSSIER CITY 32.45N 93.58W 03/09/2016 M14.44 INCH BOSSIER LA CO-OP OBSERVER CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTS 14.44 INCHES IN TAYLORTOWN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 My parents' neighbors were just rescued by boat because their house is flooding and going to wash away. My paretns have 3" water in their house - they've lived there 33 years and never had this problem. Basically 8" overnight outside Longview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 rain has stopped but next slug over eastern texas moving NNE..... ETA 3-4 hours 1026 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY... HAUGHTON...MINDEN...AND STONEWALL... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... WEST CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 230 PM CST * AT 1021 AM CST...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH NUMEROUS HOMES UNDER WATER AND ROADS WASHED OUT. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED...FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR FOR THE SHREVEPORT BOSSIER CITY METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. SEEK HIGHER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Training now occurring from Natchitoches to Monroe. Rain pushing back into Shreveport now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 This incoming batch could bring another couple inches to East Texas pushing some totals up near or above the 10" mark. I heard many reports of people unable to get to work this morning and saw some houses along US 69 just north of Tyler with water up to at least the back walls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Tons of flooded roads around East Texas where 3-9" has fallen. That much more is expected through the weekend. And we thought last year's flooding was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 This AFD explains it all NOWCAST time...not looki ng good along TX coast for NW LA if radar trends continue and the training band sets up further northwest west then the models inlcuding the last RAP forecast predict lets see if convection develops south saving them AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 402 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016 DISCUSSION MAJOR TO NEAR RECORD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN CADDO AND BOSSIER PARISHES HAVE RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS OF 8 AM CST THIS MORNING AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO RAIN ALL DAY TODAY. MULTIPLE FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES ARE IN EFFECT AND A FEW RIVER AND LAKES ARE ALREADY EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD STAGE LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS OF 2130Z...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CWA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TOLEDO BEND TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HRRR PLACES THE AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER WEST. LOOKING AT RADAR LOOPS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOCATED BETWEEN INTERSTATE 35 AND 45 SOUTH OF DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND MORE STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE BETWEEN MATAGORDA BAY AND GALVESTON ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING WITH A NOTABLE NORTHWARD COMPONENT. UNLESS THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA OR SOME KIND OF MCV DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THESE COMPLEXES...I AM DOUBTFUL OF THE MORE EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW AND A FEW OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...I HAVE PLACED THE PRIMARY AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR FROM 00Z-12Z THURSDAY... SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TEXAS TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. A DISTINCT PLUME OF HIGH PWAT VALUES...WELL OVER 2 INCHES...WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THUS...AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 2 FEET. THIS WILL ADD TO AN ALREADY HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING EVENT. WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING FOR SOME TIME AFTER THIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAIN WILL NOT BE OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 10, 2016 Author Share Posted March 10, 2016 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 601 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OUACHITA PARISH INCLUDING THE CITY OF MONROE LOUISIANA... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... * UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY * AT 558 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED REPEATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ON TOP OF THE NEAR 10 INCHES OF RAIN THE PARISH HAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 18 TO 24 HOURS. FLOODING IS ALREADY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PARISH WITH EVACUATIONS AND HIGH WATER RESCUES BEING REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PARISH. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OUACHITA PARISH INCLUDING THE CITY OF MONROE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 10, 2016 Author Share Posted March 10, 2016 18z gfs and high res NAM do indeed push the train back into shrevport in the next few hours..radar trends also support this yikes edit: only saving grace is a possible mesolow/MCS developing over HOU with the band of thunderstorms their being pushed NE rather than North by outflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 10, 2016 Author Share Posted March 10, 2016 Monroe LA airport on the east side of the city has record measurable precip 27 straight hours with many more hours to go,, total 13.22 inches with even heavier amounts NW of the city appears SHV may be spared as outflows have stalled the train to the south.. but not monroe some areas that got hit last night, a little south perhaps but some areas will overlap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Shreveport (SHV) total is 8.68. Shreveport-Minden (MNE) total is 12.38" Shreveport radar estimates 17.8 near Elm Grove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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