Tn Valley Short Range March 8-14

[jaxjagman]

Thought it's time to start a thread.Will change the dates when it's fine tuned.Feel the GFS to start with is missing the thermals being we have a Caribbean and GOM flow,it's to cold to me to start with,this effects instability.Believe we should see some better instabilities than what is being shown.The flood threat even if the heavy axis of rain isn't shown at the start and more to the west this should still fill the tributaries heading into the Ms River,this should be a big deal with multiple systems being shown through the week

[jaxjagman]

 

Keep watching where the triple point is going to be .The models aren't showing much wind shear right now,there should be more,especially into the Western Parts of the Valley.

[jaxjagman]

Still believe as i said in the winter thread we have a severe threat in the Valley on the 12th.The triple point by the euro  should bring in some better lift.Convection is there,wind shear,not.Believe this will change in future runs,we'll see.

[Runman292]

Still believe as i said in the winter thread we have a severe threat in the Valley on the 12th.The triple point by the euro should bring in some better lift.Convection is there,wind shear,not.Believe this will change in future runs,we'll see.

Does this look primarily like a West/Middle TN Severe threat, or is this for the entire State?

[jaxjagman]

Does this look primarily like a West/Middle TN Severe threat, or is this for the entire State?

Long ways to tell.The euro has some decent convection through out the Valley just looking at the KI

[jaxjagman]

That was some outbreak in 1999

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F096&rundt=2016030600&map=thbSVR&sort=FINAL&page=THB

[Runman292]

Still believe as i said in the winter thread we have a severe threat in the Valley on the 12th.The triple point by the euro should bring in some better lift.Convection is there,wind shear,not.Believe this will change in future runs,we'll see.

The SPC isn't too interested in the 12th at this time.

[jaxjagman]

The SPC isn't too interested in the 12th at this time.

Nothing that makes your eyes open wide for sure

[jaxjagman]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST SUN MAR 06 2016

VALID 12Z WED MAR 09 2016 - 12Z SUN MAR 13 2016

...MAJOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST STATES AND THE S-CENTRAL
TO E-CENTRAL US...

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION...

TWO MAIN AREAS REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DURING
THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF ERN PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL BRING EPISODES
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL-NRN WEST COAST STATES. AT THE SAME TIME A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A DEEP AND SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH TEXAS WILL
GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SERN PLAINS AND LOWER-MID MS
VALLEY TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. BOTH ARE HIGH
CONFIDENCE EVENTS OVERALL...ALBEIT WITH DETAIL UNCERTAINTY. RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FLOW OVERALL AND THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING/EMPHASIS
VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. THIS MAY
BE BEST HANDLED WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED SOLUTIONS AIDED BY
CLUSTERED INCLUSION OF MORE SPECIFIC MODEL DETAIL TO ALLOW BETTER
CONSISTENCY. ACCORDINGLY...THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 06 UTC GEFS MEAN AND 00 UTC ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. LEANED MORE WEIGHT TO THE CLOSER TO COMPOSITE GEFS
MEAN FOR CONTINUITY AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL
MODEL DETAIL.

 

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOW BEST POTENTIAL OF MEDIUM RANGE QPF
TOTALS UPWARDS OF 5-10 INCHES OVER FAVORED TERRAIN OF NRN CA/SRN
OR WITH LESSER THOUGH STILL SIGNIFICANT AMTS LIKELY OVER THE PAC
NW/NRN ROCKIES AND TO THE S INTO CENTRAL CA. LACK OF AGREEMENT
WITH SOME INDIVIDUAL STORM DETAILS TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIEST ACTIVITY AND OCCASIONALLY
STRONG WINDS.

A SERN PLAINS/LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND OH/TN VALLEYS HEAVY RAIN
EVENT THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG FLOW
OF GULF MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING/WAVY SFC FRONT. THE MOISTURE
FEED/SFC FRONT LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAY FOCUS MORE LOCALLY
ON THE CENTRAL TO E-CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH RAINFALL
ELSEWHERE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE OVER TIME IN COVERAGE WITH VARYING
INTENSITY AS SUPPORT ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. PLEASE ALSO CONSULT
LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS FOR INFO REGARDING SEVERE THREATS INCLUDING
POTENTIAL OVER THE SERN PLAINS/CNTRL GULF COAST REGION EARLY INTO
THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER LOW
INITIALLY OVER MEXICO ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY RAIN
MAXIMUM OVER SW/CENTRAL TX TO RIO GRANDE VLY.

LIGHTER PCPN WILL ACCOMPANY A MODERATING FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY SINKING SWD ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT WILL TRAIL BACK INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MS VLY SYSTEM TO ADDITIONALLY FOCUS RAINFALL.

CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FOR THE DOMINANT FEATURES ALOFT...
THE WEST COAST STATES SHOULD SEE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHILE
MOST AREAS E OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE MORE ANOMALOUSLY WARM OVERALL AND PSBLY
PRODUCE DAILY RECORDS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE EAST MID-LATE WEEK
AND THEN BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRI-SUN.  SOME ISOLD RECORD
HIGHS ARE ALSO PSBL.

SCHICHTEL

[jaxjagman]

The SPC isn't too interested in the 12th at this time.

Most of every GEFS member has a storm around the 12th,the question is going to be what kind of instability comes with it.

 

[Runman292]

Most of every GEFS member has a storm around the 12th,the question is going to be what kind of instability comes with it.

GFS PRS ENSEMBLE HOUR 156 .png

Yeah. It'll be interesting to watch.

[jaxjagman]

[Runman292]

www.esrl.noaa.gov psd cgi bin forecasts reforecast2 tornado plot_cgi.py.png

Which model is this from?

[jaxjagman]

Which model is this from?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/tornado/index.html

[Runman292]

It's not looking too good for any Severe threat in any part of Tennessee this weekend. Instability looks weak. That HP is bringing the unseasonably warm air, but it's also lowering any chances of seeing severe weather.

[dwagner88]

Memphis is taking it on the chin right now with this heavy rain event. Gonna be a long night there.

[Runman292]

I think it's safe to say that this system is a bust for Tennessee as far as Severe weather is concerned.

[jaxjagman]

I think it's safe to say that this system is a bust for Tennessee as far as Severe weather is concerned.

Possibly Sunday, more in the SW parts of the Valley.They don't need no severe weather as much rain as they have had so far

[nrgjeff]

Flooding certainly verified with the system. Though not for the immediate Tennessee River Valley, I would say it is/was a major weather event for the Mid South.

[jaxjagman]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX
   AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
   ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. LARGE HAIL...A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH 50 KT
   SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING THAT REGION. AT THE
   SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WHILE
   A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OK/TX TRACKS ACROSS THE OZARKS.
   AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...MODEST GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL RESIDE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
   MO/IL...WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN AR AND ADJACENT
   AREAS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

   ...ARKLATEX AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
   TRACK OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE LAST
   COUPLE OF RUNS. AS SUCH...THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS HAVE
   BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
   PHILOSOPHY REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OUTLOOK IN THAT
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE FORECAST TO
   FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE PSEUDO-DRYLINE FROM FAR EASTERN OK INTO
   WESTERN/CENTRAL AR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE CELLS WILL TRACK
   EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE MS RIVER AND INTO
   SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHWEST MS BY THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. IT IS DURING
   THAT TIME...FROM CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHWEST MS THAT THE
   TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE. HERE...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   /DEWPOINTS APPROACHING MID 60S/ WILL OVERLAP BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
   BENEATH NEARLY 50 KTS SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN
   INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND LOWER LCL/S COMPARED TO FURTHER
   WEST. ADDITIONALLY...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 DEG
   C/KM AND MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT LARGE
   HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD APPROACH 2+ INCHES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
   IN SIG HAIL IS LOW AT THIS TIME IN THE ABSENCE OF GREATER
   INSTABILITY.

   TO THE NORTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHERN
   MO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES F...AND ONLY MODEST
   HEATING DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LEAD TO WEAK SBCAPE AROUND
   500-1000 J/KG. UNIMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT
   ORGANIZATION...BUT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5-7 DEG C/KM COULD
   LEAD TO SOME MARGINAL HAIL.

   ..LEITMAN.. 03/12/2016

[jaxjagman]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CST SUN MAR 13 2016

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO NC/SRN
   VA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO
   NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   HAZARDS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS
   ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE VA/NC COAST. A STOUT SURFACE
   ANTICYCLONE SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE
   EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE NORTHWEST...AN
   UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SHOULD BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUE.

   ...CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO NC/SRN VA...
   IN SPITE OF THE SLOW DAMPENING NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
   THROUGH MON AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
   PLATEAU/ADJACENT PORTION OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
   SCATTERED THUNDER DEVELOPING MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. BUOYANCY SHOULD
   REMAIN WEAK EVEN WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   FARTHER EAST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC/FAR SRN VA...GREATER
   BUOYANCY SHOULD BE PREVALENT IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN SOMEWHAT RICHER
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH THE REMNANT EML PLUME THAT EMANATES
   FROM THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
   PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THIS FAR EAST GIVEN THE
   COMPACT NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

   ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MODERATE WITH
   STRONGER WLYS DISPLACED SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
   OVERALL SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE LACK OF OVERLAP BETWEEN FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS
   LOW PROBABILITIES ARE MOST APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME FRAME.

   ...CNTRL GREAT PLAINS...
   A COUPLE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD FORM MON NIGHT AS FORCING
   FOR ASCENT STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
   WITH PREVAILING WLYS IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE GULF...MOISTURE
   AVAILABILITY WILL BE MODEST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH THE
   TIMING OF MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTION...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING ON
   THE SLOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM. AS SUCH...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
   DEGREE OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WHICH AFFECTS CONFIDENCE IN ASSESSING
   HAIL POTENTIAL THIS OUTLOOK.

[jaxjagman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN
   AR...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK EWD INTO WRN TN AND
   SWD INTO NRN LA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUPERCELLS WILL POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF A
   FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   ...AR AND PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES...
   A COMPACT/INTENSE MID-LEVEL LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED 50+ KT BELT OF H5
   FLOW WILL MOVE FROM SWRN OK TO THE OK/AR BORDER BY EARLY EVENING AND
   INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING.  A SURFACE LOW IS
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD FROM OK INTO W-CNTRL AR BY 14/00Z
   AND TOWARDS THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE OVERNIGHT.  INCREASING SLY
   FLOW WILL SERVE TO ADVECT LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE CNTRL AR I-40
   CORRIDOR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN
   SHOWING THE WIND PROFILE STRENGTHENING MARKEDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AS COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CONCURRENTLY
   ACT TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS.

   ISOLD TO SCTD STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER ERN OK
   INTO WRN AR DURING THE 18-21Z PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE-HAIL
   THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES.  SCATTERED QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN AN ARC AND PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOP WHERE
   SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH IS MAXIMIZED.  LARGE TO VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO RISK /0-1 SRH AROUND 200 MS PER S2/ MAY
   ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM
   NRN LA INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF AR.  A POTENTIALLY MORE CONCENTRATED
   TORNADIC SUPERCELL CORRIDOR MAY DEVELOP DURING THE 21-02Z PERIOD
   ACROSS CNTRL AR WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL/S WILL LIKELY
   JUXTAPOSE BUT WILL DEFER THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER TORNADO
   PROBABILITIES TO LATER OUTLOOKS.  BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING...A
   GRADUAL COALESCENCE OF COLD POOLS AND STORMS MOVING E OF THE
   BUOYANCY AXIS WILL FAVOR A DECREASING HAIL/TORNADO THREAT BUT AN
   ISOLD WIND DAMAGE RISK MAY CONTINUE E OF THE MS RIVER INTO PARTS OF
   KY/TN/MS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

   ..SMITH/MARSH.. 03/13/2016

[jaxjagman]

Some decent cells with hail in East Ark

[jaxjagman]

Some large hail from the long trained storm now,still don't see the rotation but it look better anyways

[jaxjagman]

Sysytem east of Midway is the one to watch

 

[jaxjagman]

Strongest cell is around Traskwood,with its eyes towards Little Rock

[jaxjagman]

Rotation headed towards around Hollis from that long lived super cell

[jaxjagman]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...AR/NORTHERN LA/NORTHERN MS/WESTERN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 132341Z - 140115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF
   WW 42 FROM ACROSS FAR EASTERN AR...NORTHERN MS...AND WESTERN TN.
   MEANWHILE...GIVEN WW 42 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z...MUCH OF THIS
   EXISTING WATCH ALSO MAY BE INCLUDED IN THE NEW TORNADO WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPACT CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS AR
   THIS EVENING WITH 60-METER 500-MB 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO
   RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ ACROSS NORTHERN MS INTO
   WESTERN TN.  THIS JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE
   MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COMPACT CLOSED
   LOW...SUPPORTING FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTHERN MS INTO
   WESTERN TN.  STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE COMPACT
   UPPER SYSTEM AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGIONS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL JETS
   WILL AID IN NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM AR INTO
   THE MID SOUTH.  THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AR
   AND RECENTLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO SOUTHERN AR PER TRENDS IN
   RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA.  VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES
   WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
   ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ACROSS AR AND SPREADING INTO WESTERN TN AND
   NORTHERN MS...AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN LA.  ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN
   SEVERE-WEATHER THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING.

[jaxjagman]

Should be a decent tornado that will go east of Cottonplant

 

[jaxjagman]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 43
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   705 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     ARKANSAS
     EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA
     WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
     SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM
     UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS AND FAR
   NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WESTERN PARTS
   OF MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE TONIGHT.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
   BATESVILLE ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).