snowlover2 Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Think this deserves a thread of its own. Models agree on heavy rain affecting the southern parts of the subforum. WPC QPF says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Congrats, Cali.. Hopefully not too much of a good thing for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Congrats, Cali.. Hopefully not too much of a good thing for some Bring on the mud slides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Food for thought...this forecast was made on February 15th for next week's precipitable water amounts via the #rrwt, or Recurring Rossby Wave Train, found here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Food for thought...this forecast was made on February 15th for next week's precipitable water amounts via the #rrwt, or Recurring Rossby Wave Train, found here.. If WPC's forecast come to fruition, it will nail the Texas up through the Midwest part, but bust badly on the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 GFS through 210 hours. Cold rain for a lot of us with the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Looks like the same general areas, particularly from Decatur to St. Louis and southwestward, who got hammered with rain and flooding with the post-Christmas storm system will get poured on again this time. GFS through 210 hours. Cold rain for a lot of us with the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Yeah, any further north with that band is going to mean serious trouble for the Mississippi-Illinois-Missouri river junction down here. The only reason December wasn't a #1 or close to #1 flood was the fact that a good portion of the rainfall fell south of the city. A band 30-60 miles north of that one would be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Newer model runs have the upper level low more progressive(although still slow) then a couple of days ago....but also more north it seems when some of the heavy rain.. 15 inches of rain was modeled in AR a few days ago as record PW's values for March stalled..now its "only" 8 inches GFS looks active beyond this too.. There is hardly any snow cover upstream so that is not a factor plus its been rather dry some Jan 1st another thing to remember is that convection sometimes holds up a front from coming north so the axis of heavy rain maybe more SE than currently modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 12z GFS is a tad north with the first wave..but more SE with the whole system after that thru 112 HR the cut off low seems more south in Mexico and a little slower to eject out edit: seems it keeps the low around and the high PW values for the next system too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Yeah, going to depend heavily on the evolution of mesoscale processes. I don't think it's wise to get too cute with the exact placement of the band just yet, especially since the wave in question is still way out in the Pacific. Obviously, the pattern supports training convection and a stalled or nearly stalled boundary due to parallel flow aloft. Most of the convection looks to be elevated and the very moist atmosphere doesn't exactly favor cold pool generation that would shove the front around too much, but we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 it's amazing that this keeps happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 it's amazing that this keeps happening Part of this is El Nino, but part of this is the future, I'm afraid. An intensification of the water cycle means more droughts and floods. The mean of the annual rainfall may not change all that much depending on where you are (STL has seen an increase of about 4"/yr since 1980 though), but rainfall variability increases are probably going to be the big story. The past few years have been a poster child for that -- long periods of dry punctuated by very heavy rainfall events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Updated WPC not quite as much precip over the subfourm..of course this will keep changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 Hydro outlooks out from I-72 in IL across IN south to KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 GFS through the end of the week. 2"+ corridor has moved up into northern IL now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 18Z GFS = More Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 That is a heck of a connection from the tropics to the Great Lakes on day 5. If only it could be turned into snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I look forward to working during this period, it looks like a highly efficient heavy rain producing pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 0Z GFS trended wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 That is a heck of a connection from the tropics to the Great Lakes on day 5. If only it could be turned into snow. Straight fire hose. Goodbye salt, hello mud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Probably 80% of the Mississippi basin getting a good soaking this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 12z NAM very wet for MO into central IL with 3+ inches thru 84 HR with the simulation radar showing it still raining in those areas too will have to see how much the convection down south robs moisture transport up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 dat gulf flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Geos approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 12Z GFS is even wetter. Widespread 2.5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 3"+, bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Late last week, the firehouse was pointed towards the OV. Glad to see it's migrating north for MBY's sake. Mostly dry and temps in the upper 60s to 70 all week sounds perfect. Hopefully the rivers, especially the Illinois and Mississippi, can handle the pending deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 The euro is not nearly as wet up into southeast Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 The euro is not nearly as wet up into southeast Iowa. Yeah shunts the heaviest precip more to the southeast. Euro vs GFS? Ride the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.