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Let's talk Spring/Severe season!


Steve

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  • 3 weeks later...

Marginal risk for Cincy/Cbus tmrw afternoon.  As usual it all depends on instability.  NAM bufkit looks good enough for isolated wind/tornado threat.  Hodograph and low level shear look excellent but only 300-400 k/kg of CAPE.  And to be honest, the NAM usually is too high on CAPE.  So I wouldn't go to crazy with the threat, but I agree with the SPC marginal risk due to magnitude of shear and potential for at least a minor amount of instability.  We just saw 5 tornadoes in Dayton last week with high shear / low CAPE.  Not saying I expect that again, but it's an example of the isolated type things that can happen with these systems.

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  • 3 weeks later...

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