Superstorm93 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Cute little TBSS on that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 What are your thoughts for Tuesday's threat? So much difference in the 4km and 12km NAM especially. Cute little TBSS on that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 What are your thoughts for Tuesday's threat? So much difference in the 4km and 12km NAM especially. I think tomorrow is confined mainly to South Texas with the main threat being large hail due to the anomalously cold tropospheric temperatures and decent lift. The ECMWF really highlighted the potential for some supecells crossing the Mex Tex border before congealing into an MCS over Central Texas. We'll need to see what things look like tomorrow morning once tonight's convection moves through, but I don't expect Tuesday to feature a substantial tornado threat. However, I could see an Eagle Pass 2007 type situation where a monster cell crosses the border and poses a decent nocturnal tornado risk to a very local area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 What about up along the Red River in Southern OK/North TX where the 12km NAM has some nice parameters? I think tomorrow is confined mainly to South Texas with the main threat being large hail due to the anomalously cold tropospheric temperatures and decent lift. The ECMWF really highlighted the potential for some supecells crossing the Mex Tex border before congealing into an MCS over Central Texas. We'll need to see what things look like tomorrow morning once tonight's convection moves through, but I don't expect Tuesday to feature a substantial tornado threat. However, I could see an Eagle Pass 2007 type situation where a monster cell crosses the border and poses a decent nocturnal tornado risk to a very local area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 The NAM and NAM-4km were really wrong about intensity of daytime convection in north Texas this afternoon. Nothing has been severe, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Second supercell of the day in Comanche Co KS. It already has some broad rotation on velocity and may go on to produce some large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 8, 2016 Author Share Posted March 8, 2016 Nasty circulation on the storm W of the Metroplex right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgidd8 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 How is that not tornado warned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Nasty circulation on the storm W of the Metroplex right now. Yeah, I'm sitting on the bus in ft worth looking at it on radarscope and asking where is the warning on that for a tornado warning... Could be rainwrapped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 8, 2016 Author Share Posted March 8, 2016 I'm sorry FWD, but that took far, far too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 That storm near Mineral Wells looks nasty w/ a pos rain wrapped tor. Glad it just got tornado warned. Luckily the storm is moving northeast and the metroplex should spare a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgidd8 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 It showed potentially tornadic velocities from two different radar locations for at least 15 minutes prior to the warning being released. I agree with andyhb. That took far too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Report of structure and car damage 2 miles east of cool on hwy 180 per nbc 5.. No word on if it's wind or hail damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 NBC 5 (KXAS) has their tracker vehicle out and it just came across some pretty descent damage just east of Cool. Roof damage and fairly heavy tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Had a large TDS just north of Millsap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 That should be a confirmed tornado now near Cool TX, especially with reports of damaging coming in. It definitely tightened up a lot on velocity in the past few. Large area of 80 gtg shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The Storm Report @thestormreport 6m6 minutes ago NWS: Report of damage to roofs, structures and multiple cars just east of Cool, Texas. Storm is currently #tornado warned. That was a really strong tornado. If the above is the worst damage, they dodged a fatal bullet. But there was a nasty debris ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Gotta watch the tail end Charlie S of Millsap now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Gotta watch that OFB tomorrow. Been a while since we've had to think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 DFW has a good AFD TUESDAY...IS OUR MAIN DAY IN QUESTION REGARDING THE FORECAST AS ITCOULD VERY WELL BE MOSTLY QUIET OR RATHER ACTIVE. IT IS APPEARINGMORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN THE ACTIVITYDURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO POPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. THEFIRST OF SEVERAL MAIN AREAS OF ASCENT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEASTAND DRIER AIR ALOFT DOES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...ADRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WEST OF I-35. ITIS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE A DEEP MOISTBOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGSSUGGEST THAT A RATHER UNPERTURBED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE INPLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE VERY WEAKLYCAPPED. THIS SEEMS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERETHREAT...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES BACK WEAKLY IN THE MID LEVELSLIKELY INDICATING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLYMORNING ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS IN FACT THE CASE...THEN IT MAY BE AQUIET DAY...ALTHOUGH HUMID AND WARM. IF THE SUBSIDENCE DOES NOTEXIST AND WE HAVE ANY LIFT AT ALL...THEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTIONCOULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHERPOSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHATIMPACT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS ON THE AIRMASS AND POSSIBLYANY DATA FROM 12 OR 18Z SOUNDINGS TOMORROW CAN OFFER. FOR NOW...WEWILL SIDE WITH LOWER OVERALL POPS AND MONITOR THE THREAT CLOSELY.POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN A SMALL CORRIDOR ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERNCOUNTIES WHERE WARM ADVECTION STREAMER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TOCONTINUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 21z SREF coming back fairly aggressive Tuesday Evening for the Ark/La/Tex region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 HRRR looks really nasty tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 HRRR looks really nasty tomorrow Where at? I haven't had a chance to check yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Before the storms in south Texas late Tuesday Night, action could get very interesting over in the Arkansas/Louisiana/Texas region late Tuesday afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Where at? I haven't had a chance to check yet. East Texas... specifically the area between the outflow boundary and the Gulf. Looks like supercells form on the tail of the MCS, also some supercells forming south of it. As you can see, the area west of that is still primed for severe storms... that may pop later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Sounding just SW of Houston tomorrow, right under a potential UHI spike as indicated by the HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 East Texas... specifically the area between the outflow boundary and the Gulf. Looks like supercells form on the tail of the MCS, also some supercells forming south of it. As you can see, the area west of that is still primed for severe storms... that may pop later. Yuk, that is the squall line the HRRR keeps generating that it pushes through DFW in the morning. If that pans out, one word subsidence back west and nothing in the afternoon. Hoping it doesn't materialize honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Yuk, that is the squall line the HRRR keeps generating that it pushes through DFW in the morning. If that pans out, one word subsidence back west and nothing in the afternoon. Hoping it doesn't materialize honestly. I don't think DFW is gonna get much action tomorrow. That MCS is going to ruin the atmosphere. Maybe some thunder, strong winds at best, from an MCS that forms overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 I don't think DFW is gonna get much action tomorrow. That MCS is going to ruin the atmosphere. Maybe some thunder, strong winds at best, from an MCS that forms overnight That is why I am hoping the model is wrong, I would prefer the chance at better action in the afternoon than a dying MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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