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se WI/ne IL/nw IN/se MI lake effect snow event

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Tony

Tony

Posted
Posted

Right tony. Not really worried about 12z NAM because it does hit us but it looks more focused on NW IN.

I noticed that as well on a few runs of the NAM where the focus was NW IN. and the GFS has been more focused on this side of the lake. We shall see this weekend where it all sets up. I know this side of the lake usually is not favorable for Major Lake Snows but all it takes is everthing to line up just right. We are way overdue so maybe this might be the right time but who really knows.

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weatherguru

weatherguru

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I noticed that as well on a few runs of the NAM where the focus was NW IN. and the GFS has been more focused on this side of the lake. We shall see this weekend where it all sets up. I know this side of the lake usually is not favorable for Major Lake Snows but all it takes is everthing to line up just right. We are way overdue so maybe this might be the right time but who really knows.

Yeah I even noticed a stronger band at 78hr I believe over southern tip on 12z NAM. So it does look a bit stronger and more organized.

With a 36+ LES setting up this could def yield warning lake snows in parts of Lake, Cook, Dupage and Will Counties if winds stay ENE and not NNE.

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KeenerWx

KeenerWx

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Posted

9 times out of 10 a threat originating in NW Indiana (part of LOT's FA) will end up impacting Michigan City on eastward. Not that I'm saying this thing will continue trend eastward, but you get my point.

As for me, I really have nothing to gain from this except getting to watch another LE event on radar. Flow isn't too impressive, so even if the band was parked straight north of me, I'd probably only see light snow showers.

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tornadotony

tornadotony

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Per usual and as Tony said was most likely.

Yeah Gino's thoughts from this morning's SPS/AFD pretty much in line with my thinking from yesterday...will have to keep watching the mesoscale models though...the NAM focusing more to the E of the GFS does make me wonder if it's not going to be more eastern Lake IN/western Porter than what I had outlined yesterday...which would make sense if the low ends up more offshore...

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weatherguru

weatherguru

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Posted

LOT entending LES potential into Monday now:

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 06Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 18Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR W/LAKE EFFECT SHSN.

SATURDAY...MVFR W/LAKE EFFECT SHSN.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR W/LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.

MONDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR W/LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHC -SN

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Yeah Gino's thoughts from this morning's SPS/AFD pretty much in line with my thinking from yesterday...will have to keep watching the mesoscale models though...the NAM focusing more to the E of the GFS does make me wonder if it's not going to be more eastern Lake IN/western Porter than what I had outlined yesterday...which would make sense if the low ends up more offshore...

I think that area is still in play for sure. Your map from yesterday is looking pretty good. The NAM inversion heights look impressive on Sunday (over 10,000 feet on the 12z run!). Somebody is gonna get hammered if this holds.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

LOT

FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST WITH RIDGE OF HIGH

PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES GIVING THE REGION A STRONG

NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND. A COUPLE OF PINWHEELING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS

ROTATE AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING

RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS

ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LAKE INSTABILITY SUGGESTING EQUILIBRIUM

LEVELS AROUND 10KFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GRADUALLY COMING DOWN

SUNDAY AND SHUTTING OFF MONDAY AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN AND INVERSION

HEIGHTS LOWER. SNOW PLUME STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP OVER COOK

COUNTY INITIALLY...EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT YESTERDAYS MODEL

RUNS WERE SUGGESTING. THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS

THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS STATELINE ON SUNDAY. WITH PROLONGED EVENT

EXPECTED...THERE IS STILL THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL

FROM THIS EVENT.

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weatherguru

weatherguru

Posted
Posted

My guess at this point is 6-12" for eastern Cook/eastern Will/much of Lake IN and possibly into western Porter county. If the band stalls for a prolonged period then I could see some locally higher amounts.

Good guess. I will wait tonight to see what happens. Even though I am no real met everyone opions are helpful. I do have a little concern the 18z NAM tries bring the band to NE IL shorline for a period of time and then turn more northerly into NW IN before east coast system gets ramped up and turn winds more NE and shift the band back into NE IL shorline. Like the 72hr of 18z NAM as decent band tries to move onshore. I am guessing hoosier you would call several inches for Ohare but the 6-12+ east literally along NE shoreline and more likely in NW IN. Plenty of time to watch this as 24-36hrs before LES bands gets going and 2 days to see how this will fare out but somebody gonna get rocked for ecp if a more presistant band sets up and that would be more local.

NAM spitting out .50-.75 QPF for far southeast Cook and NW IN with sypnotic/les combined.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

sure you saw this .68 bullseye over the city

http://raleighwx.ame...8znamp72084.gif

LE is always overdone to the west at this range, i just don't buy it. If we start getting some hi-res runs or maybe a met tech wrf or two showing .5"+ amounts that far west, then i'll come around. Until then a general 1-4 with isolated high far SE Cook seems like a safe bet.

Wow that fluff up to 7-9 inches!

IF, IF, Chicago saw .7" water equiv, it's going to fluff up to more than that.

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weatherguru

weatherguru

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LE is always overdone to the west at this range, i just don't buy it. If we start getting some hi-res runs or maybe a met tech wrf or two showing .5"+ amounts that far west, then i'll come around. Until then a general 1-4 with isolated high far SE Cook seems like a safe bet.

IF, IF, Chicago saw .7" water equiv, it's going to fluff up to more than that.

Well lets put it this way. If that sypnotic snow (sorry wanna mention that here) does end up being stronger and furthur north, that alone could give us 3-6+ LOT being safe and keeping advisories west of here and calling 2-4 inches here with 16:1 ratio for several hrs to 13:1 ratio. And this LES band develops like models been advertising for days now wow we are gonna get some serious snow to shovel Sunday evening. I think it's possible some areas in Lake and Cook ecp NW IN could see well over a foot before all said and done with sypnotic/les comfined. Not to be a weenie but a potent s/w energy screaming to get more phased and a 30+hr of lake effect and not to mention lake enhancement that gonna run some serious snow totals. I think the main question now is how far inland will the band get in Lake and Cook or will it just be right along the immediate shorline. It's a concern for me because I dont live along the immediate shorline but east of Ohare.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Good guess. I will wait tonight to see what happens. Even though I am no real met everyone opions are helpful. I do have a little concern the 18z NAM tries bring the band to NE IL shorline for a period of time and then turn more northerly into NW IN before east coast system gets ramped up and turn winds more NE and shift the band back into NE IL shorline. Like the 72hr of 18z NAM as decent band tries to move onshore. I am guessing hoosier you would call several inches for Ohare but the 6-12+ east literally along NE shoreline and more likely in NW IN. Plenty of time to watch this as 24-36hrs before LES bands gets going and 2 days to see how this will fare out but somebody gonna get rocked for ecp if a more presistant band sets up and that would be more local.

NAM spitting out .50-.75 QPF for far southeast Cook and NW IN with sypnotic/les combined.

I don't think ORD gets 6" of lake effect. Depending how the system performs, maybe could get close to that combined system/LES.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
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MKE

1000-850 MB WINDS ARE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SHORE...AND

STRONGER NORTHEAST OVER THE WATER...SETTING UP A CONVERGENCE ZONE

ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. DELTA T/S INCREASE FROM 13C FRIDAY NIGHT TO AS

LOW AS 17C ON GFS BY SUNDAY MORNING. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE FROM 4K

FEET FRIDAY NIGHT...5K FT SATURDAY NIGHT...TO 7K FEET SUNDAY MORNING

WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING MINIMAL DENDRITE GROWTH

TEMPERATURE OF -10C TO DIP INTO TOP OF MOIST LAYER. COLDER GFS AT

850MB AND MORE PERSISTENT 1000-850MB ONSHORE WINDS KEEPS LAKE SNOW

BAND OVER WESTERN SHORE FROM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY

SUNDAY...WHILE WARMER NAM HAS A WEAKER LAYER ONSHORE FLOW THAT

EVENTUALLY SHIFTS THE CONVERGENCE AND THE SNOW BAND OUT OVER THE

LAKE BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND KEEP LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL

THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT SLOWLY LOWER POPS AFTER MAX DURING THE

DAY SATURDAY. MODIFIED MODEL SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS DOWNWARD FROM MODEL

1000-500MB THICKNESSES DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER FLOW OFF WARMER LAKE

WATER. USING ROEBBER PROBABILITIES WILL GO WITH 15:1 TO 16:1

SATURDAY...RISING TO 17:1 TO 18:1 SUNDAY. THIS GIVES SNOW TOTALS

NEAR THE LAKE RANGING FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE

COUNTIES TO 3 TO 4 INCHES FROM MILWAUKEE COUNTY SOUTH...BUT NO

ADVISORY CONTEMPLATED AS SNOW TOTALS WILL ACCUMULATE OVER A 24 TO 36

HOUR TIME PERIOD.

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beavis1729

beavis1729

Posted
Posted

It's just an early call and I'll bump if I get any indication the higher qpf numbers are for real, right now my experience leads me to believe they're overdone.

Agree Alek...I like your call right now. For ORD specifically, I'm looking for about 0.20" synoptic and another 0.05" LE...and with 15:1 ratios, this would give nearly 4" total snowfall. Obviously LE is the big wildcard, and I'm a bit worried about dry mid-levels to start.

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weatherguru

weatherguru

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Posted

Agree Alek...I like your call right now. For ORD specifically, I'm looking for about 0.20" synoptic and another 0.05" LE...and with 15:1 ratios, this would give nearly 4" total snowfall. Obviously LE is the big wildcard, and I'm a bit worried about dry mid-levels to start.

THE NCEP MODELS DO NOT HANDLE QPF (LES) like it does with system snows. When NW IN gets hammered with 2+ feet of snow do the models show the QPF and intensity of precip? No. It just shows a light to mod band coming down the lake.

We are about 2 counties away from seeing 3-6+ with a 13:1-16:1 ratio just from main sypnotic band alone.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p36_042l.gif

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