Hoosier Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I wouldn't make calls just yet, give it till the 12z runs tomorrow to see what they do, atleast thats what I'm going to do. A lot of this comes down to where the lake bands set up. The synoptic part is starting to come into better focus but the lake effect as always is highly sensitive depending on the exact trajectory. Right now I would favor areas from the city (esp south side) through Lake IN and possibly into Porter for the heaviest lake effect snow, but west of there is sure to see some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z... ORD: ECMWF: 0.35" GFS: 0.44" NAM: 0.22" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" what did the 12z euro have for ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 what did the 12z euro have for ORD? 0.06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0.06" wow quite the jump. geez didn't know it was that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z... MKE: ECMWF: 0.14" GFS: 0.35" NAM: 0.08" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" UGN: ECMWF: 0.27" GFS: 0.40" NAM: 0.13" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" ORD: ECMWF: 0.35" GFS: 0.44" NAM: 0.22" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" GYY: ECMWF: 0.23" GFS: 0.39" NAM: 0.26" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" VPZ: ECMWF: 0.16" GFS: 0.32" NAM: 0.20" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" Always forget DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 DTW is what city/town? btw, 00z NAM is out will see what happens in the next hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Always forget DTW DTW: 0z... ECMWF: 0.10" GFS: 0.11" NAM: 0.06" GGEM: 0.01-0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 212 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010 ILZ006-013-014-022-023-INZ001-002-010-011-232100- LAKE IL-DUPAGE-COOK-WILL-KANKAKEE-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN...WHEATON...CHICAGO...JOLIET... KANKAKEE...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER 212 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND... COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO BEGIN LATER SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO EVEN GUESS HOW MUCH SNOW COULD FALL... HOWEVER...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO AREA OR NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LAST FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT EASTERN COOK AND EASTERN WILL COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT ONLY A VERY SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST WIND DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER OFTEN RESULT IN WIDELY VARYING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCES. ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN THE IMMEDIATE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA...INCLUDING NORTHWEST INDIANA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 LOT LONG DURATION...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BIG EAST COAST CUT OFF LOW SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT WITH CLIMBING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND INCREASINGLY COLD AIR ARRIVING. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY VERIFIED VERBATIM...THEN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WOULD BE A GOOD BET. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PROBABLY PEAK IN INTENSITY SUNDAY...HOWEVER INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FALL...MEANING LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY WINDING DOWN. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT LES EVENT WITH AN SPS AS IT IS PRETTY FAR OUT TO CONSIDER A WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND TRAJECTORY WOULD CERTAINLY SEEM THAT EASTERN COOK AND EASTERN WILL COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE CO INDIANA WOULD BE MOST UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 IND . SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ONSET OF PRECIP HAS BEEN BACKED UP TO FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE CLEAR NOW THAT CENTRAL INDIANA WILL ONLY BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE OF THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE TOGETHER INTO A STRONG NOREASTER LATER THIS WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND FRI 06Z...WITH THE BEST LIFT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PROBABLY GIVING THE FORECAST AREA IT/S BEST SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION. NONETHELESS...LATEST HPC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY SLOT MOVES IN AROUND SAT 06Z...CUTTING OFF ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...IT RAMPS UP AGAIN AROUND SAT 18Z ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW OFF OF THE LAKE...WHEN THEY COULD PICK UP A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES. AS A RESULT...LEFT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 LOT LONG DURATION...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BIG EAST COAST CUT OFF LOW SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT WITH CLIMBING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND INCREASINGLY COLD AIR ARRIVING. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY VERIFIED VERBATIM...THEN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WOULD BE A GOOD BET. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PROBABLY PEAK IN INTENSITY SUNDAY...HOWEVER INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FALL...MEANING LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY WINDING DOWN. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT LES EVENT WITH AN SPS AS IT IS PRETTY FAR OUT TO CONSIDER A WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LAKE EFFECT NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND TRAJECTORY WOULD CERTAINLY SEEM THAT EASTERN COOK AND EASTERN WILL COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE CO INDIANA WOULD BE MOST UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. 12z NAM continues to hit Lake, most of Cook for a solid 24+hrs. LOT:SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 212 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010 ILZ006-013-014-022-023-INZ001-002-010-011-232100- LAKE IL-DUPAGE-COOK-WILL-KANKAKEE-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN...WHEATON...CHICAGO...JOLIET... KANKAKEE...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER 212 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND... COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO BEGIN LATER SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO EVEN GUESS HOW MUCH SNOW COULD FALL... HOWEVER...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO AREA OR NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LAST FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT EASTERN COOK AND EASTERN WILL COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT ONLY A VERY SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST WIND DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER OFTEN RESULT IN WIDELY VARYING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCES. ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN THE IMMEDIATE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA...INCLUDING NORTHWEST INDIANA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. $ IZZI I told u Alek we are gonna get lake effect snow warnings. You think what they saying starting up Friday into early Saturday doesent warrent any potential for substantial accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS still showing the LES 60hr all the way through 96hr. Maybe even LES before the 60hr. At 102hr it looks like it shifts to NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12z NAM continues to hit Lake, most of Cook for a solid 24+hrs. I told u Alek we are gonna get lake effect snow warnings. You think what they saying starting up Friday into early Saturday doesent warrent any potential for substantial accumulations. Not happening for an Illinois county and if an area in Illinois does, it's Chatham east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not happening for an Illinois county and if an area in Illinois does, it's Chatham east. Well it does mention they feel no need for a watch yet because its not in the time frame but if current trends continue they have that lake snow band setting up good in Lake and Cook mainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well it does mention they feel no need for a watch yet because its not in the time frame but if current trends continue they have that lake snow band setting up good in Lake and Cook mainly. Sounds like they favor eastern Cook, eastern will and Lake Indiana, which fits nicely with Tonys thoughts from yesterday. Inland penetration isn't looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sounds like they favor eastern Cook, eastern will and Lake Indiana, which fits nicely with Tonys thoughts from yesterday. Inland penetration isn't looking great. Well I am in eastern Cook so I dont care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 To make an early call, I like a DAB to 2" synoptic, heaviest south and west and 1 to 4" lake effect, highest closest to the indiana border. IMBY call of 2.5" (.4" synoptic and 2.1" LE). Confidence medium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 flow over the bowl really weak around hr 42, might want to watch this time fram for meso development before flow picks up and becomes more organized out of the NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like pure lake effect will kick in after 2am Saturday. Looks more organized on 12z compared to 06z at 54hr. I am seeing lake hancement with the mail sypnotic snow looking a sim ref. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 still LE at hr 84 (not a good run for the east coast weenies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 still LE at hr 84 (not a good run for the east coast weenies) It's a good run, best band is over the lake and in NW IN but back west into Chicago by 72-78. It's certainly showing a decent signal with .1-.25 just off shore of my apartment at 78 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 About .5" total this run with the NAM pretty much ripping off Tony's LE map from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 still LE at hr 84 (not a good run for the east coast weenies) That was my thought to.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Per the twisterdata maps, the band at 72-84 is healthy over the lake but only briefly makes an appearance on the western shore before shifting into NW Indiana, which is the most climo favored solution. It will be interesting to see how some hi-res runs evolve it inside 48hrs since we're still at the outer range of the NAMs reach. I'm seeing three pieces to watch for Chicago folks. System snows (probably) south, weak mesolow developement (42-48) and LE (72-84). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like 12z NAM trying to focus more on a single band northerly into far southeast Cook/NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like 12z NAM trying to focus more on a single band northerly into far southeast Cook/NW IN. Per usual and as Tony said was most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Per usual and as Tony said was most likely. He did nail it but thats only 1 NAM run and still 3-4 days out. Lots can change. I just hope that southern system get any worse. Geeze that would probably shut the lake sooner and steer the winds more northerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 He did nail it but thats only 1 NAM run and still 3-4 days out. Lots can change. I just hope that southern system get any worse. Geeze that would probably shut the lake sooner and steer the winds more northerly. The Euro has really nailed this storm and the GFS is coming in line. I think the track will still be up the coast and not out to sea as the NAM would show. We should be fine here on the Western shores of LM and still looks to be a long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Right tony. Not really worried about 12z NAM because it does hit us but it looks more focused on NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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