A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yep, eyeballing it I think .3-.4 was synoptic.. I'm thinking this might be the max total qpf we will get as far as our area goes.. To be honest, I don't know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You guys are underestimating the 36+ of LES. I dont care how unorganized it may be but it's gonna add up. Id say 6+ in NE IL by Sunday. good luck with your call, can't say as i agree and if we get 6+, most won't be from LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 good luck with your call, can't say as i agree and if we get 6+, most won't be from LE. I dont think most will be from LES. If the wetter GFS pans out lately with 12hr of light/mod snow Friday that alone will give us 2-5 inches but 36+hrs of LES will def give us 6+ by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 To be honest, I don't know what to think. With the way the synoptic event is trending, I think eastern Cook is looking pretty good for 6+ combined with lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 good luck with your call, can't say as i agree and if we get 6+, most won't be from LE. So you pretty know where exactly I live. Would you say I live in eastern Cook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 With the way the synoptic event is trending, I think eastern Cook is looking pretty good for 6+ combined with lake effect. Yeah I would agree with that, if the models hold right now, of course probably won't but trend is for that number to go up, not down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 With the way the synoptic event is trending, I think eastern Cook is looking pretty good for 6+ combined with lake effect. I agree. Even though I felt discouraged to hear channel 2 talking about a dusting tonight if current trends continue sypnotic alone will give us 2-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 With the way the synoptic event is trending, I think eastern Cook is looking pretty good for 6+ combined with lake effect. Agreed, and with ratios nearing the middle teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 With the way the synoptic event is trending, I think eastern Cook is looking pretty good for 6+ combined with lake effect. The Euro is the 800lb gorilla in the room right now. The NAM and GFS clearly support 6+ for the area but with the King showing almost nothing, skepticism reigns supreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro is the 800lb gorilla in the room right now. The NAM and GFS clearly support 6+ for the area but with the King showing almost nothing, skepticism reigns supreme. Nah I would not follow that crap. Just lets hope the GFS pans out. I expect WSW to rolling in NE IL by Friday. That is if the wetter NAM and wet GFS trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro is the 800lb gorilla in the room right now. The NAM and GFS clearly support 6+ for the area but with the King showing almost nothing, skepticism reigns supreme. King is not the best LES model though, so I would use with caution there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I agree. Even though I felt discouraged to hear channel 2 talking about a dusting tonight if current trends continue sypnotic alone will give us 2-5 inches. if the 0z GFS verified it would be a 3-6" synoptic event, GFS is also showing better omega then monday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro is the 800lb gorilla in the room right now. The NAM and GFS clearly support 6+ for the area but with the King showing almost nothing, skepticism reigns supreme. Understandable, but the Euro qpf has had some problems lately at least around LAF. You'd at least want to see a little bit of a wetter trend though on the 00z run even if it doesn't go all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 King is not the best LES model though, so I would use with caution there. true and this thread is morphing into a storm thread. Most of the good QPF for NE Illinois on the GFS and NAM is synoptic and we should try to talk about that in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nah I would not follow that crap. Just lets hope the GFS pans out. I expect WSW to rolling in NE IL by Friday. That is if the wetter NAM and wet GFS trend continues. Eh.. I wouldn't really expect to see those.. This will be a drawn out event even if we do get 6+ so an advisory looks to be more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 true and this thread is morphing into a storm thread. Most of the good QPF for NE Illinois on the GFS and NAM is synoptic and we should try to talk about that in the main thread. Skilling blog tonight doesent go depth with the LES but talks about the ingredients for LES this weekend in his map. http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 true and this thread is morphing into a storm thread. Most of the good QPF for NE Illinois on the GFS and NAM is synoptic and we should try to talk about that in the main thread. This increased synoptic qpf is gonna rob you of a true lake snow headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Eh.. I wouldn't really expect to see those.. This will be a drawn out event even if we do get 6+ so an advisory looks to be more likely. take it to the storm thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This increased synoptic qpf is gonna rob you of a true lake snow headline. Nah first sypnotic then the Lake. It's pretty seperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z STL WRF...SERN Wisconsin into NWRN Indiana... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/wrf/wrfdisplay.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nah first sypnotic then the Lake. It's pretty seperate. That's not how it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z STL WRF...SERN Wisconsin into NWRN Indiana... http://www.crh.noaa..../wrfdisplay.php Is this a good thing? Looks like it crushes N IN at 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z STL WRF...SERN Wisconsin into NWRN Indiana... http://www.crh.noaa..../wrfdisplay.php north of the 12z run. also with an intense band at 12z on the 26th...right when peak intensity looks to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The LES band looks very weak in NE IL before the 79hr time-frame. Eekk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 The LES band looks very weak in NE IL before the 79hr time-frame. Eekk. Not surprising given the parameters until about 78 hours. The 6z to 18z Sunday timeframe is looking the best right now...better hope the band is over you then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not surprising given the parameters until about 78 hours. The 6z to 18z Sunday timeframe is looking the best right now...better hope the band is over you then. I will just bomb Lake Michigan on Friday and warm the sucker up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Givven a more wetter sypnotic event and LES potential 6+ is my call for mainly NE IL. Factor in those ratios. Will probably be alot higher than 10:1 for periods of time. My guess is will see solid periods of light to moderate lake snows for a good 2 days Sat-Sun which will def add several inches to the potential 2-5 inch sypnotic snows. Skilling: Despite storm's southern track, winds to its the north are to run the length of Lake Michigan into Chicago raising the potential for lake-effect snows Snowfalls in Chicago are often the product of a period of "system snow"--snowfall generated by the low pressure itself--and a period of "lake snow"--snow which falls as cold winds blow across warmer lake waters. The system headed this way for the holiday weekend appears likely to follow that model. While light "system snow" is to spread into Chicago by Friday afternoon and continue into Friday evening, depositing perhaps 1 to 3 inches, lake snows, confined primarily to lakeside counties of Illinois, Wisconsin and northwest Indiana, may keep bursts of snowfall going in those areas much of the holiday weekend. Lake snows finicky, hitting in waves and accumulating unevenly in mainly lakeside counties Snow accumulations--notoriously varied in lake-snow events--may continue to grow in areas close to the lake Saturday and Sunday. But the distribution of this snow and precise totals are difficult to pinpoint this far ahead of the system's arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Givven a more wetter sypnotic event and LES potential 6+ is my call for mainly NE IL. Factor in those ratios. Will probably be alot higher than 10:1 for periods of time. My guess is will see solid periods of light to moderate lake snows for a good 2 days Sat-Sun which will def add several inches to the potential 2-5 inch sypnotic snows. Skilling: I wouldn't make calls just yet, give it till the 12z runs tomorrow to see what they do, atleast thats what I'm going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I wouldn't make calls just yet, give it till the 12z runs tomorrow to see what they do, atleast thats what I'm going to do. Better yet I will see what everyone says later today and see what I think tonight. Everyone opion matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z... MKE: ECMWF: 0.14" GFS: 0.35" NAM: 0.08" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" UGN: ECMWF: 0.27" GFS: 0.40" NAM: 0.13" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" ORD: ECMWF: 0.35" GFS: 0.44" NAM: 0.22" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" GYY: ECMWF: 0.23" GFS: 0.39" NAM: 0.26" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" VPZ: ECMWF: 0.16" GFS: 0.32" NAM: 0.20" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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