se WI/ne IL/nw IN/se MI lake effect snow event

[weatherguru]

IWX

HGT SUPPRESSION WITHIN NRN MEMBER OF SPLIT STREAM FLW ACRS THE CONUS

WILL YIELD A QUITE PATTN THIS PD. IMPRESSIVE SRN STREAM SW TROUGH

OFF THE CA COAST HANDLED SIMILARLY THIS MORNING W/MORE CONGRUENT

SOLUTIONS TAKING THIS SYS EWD ALG OR INTO THE GULF COAST AND THEN

WRAPPING SYS UP OVR THE WRN ATL AS IT PHASES W/RENEWED MEAN

TROUGHING CNTRD ALG THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...GIVEN

BREATH OF MID LVL TROUGH DVLPMNT EXTENDING WWD INTO THE GREAT

LAKES...LK EFFECT LOOKS TO GET STEERED WWD INTO NE IL/SE WI FOR MUCH

OF THE PD.

What office is that?

[weatherguru]

I think 06z GFS will be good for LES area. Will have to hope the east coast system is furthur NW and stronger. This will def enhance our LES potential here.

[Chicago Storm]

What office is that?

Northern Indiana.

[weatherguru]

06z GFS is still showing at least 24+ of LES in NE IL mainly. Doesent look as pro-longed but still several days to watch this. It does look like it tries to hover over the Lake for 6-12hrs before it moves onshore. Will have to watch that east coast storm to see if it ends up furthur west because this will prolong the NEeasterly fetch. Still 24+hrs of LES snow will likely warrent LES watch and or warning by Friday for 6+ in Lake, Cook, Dupage and NW IN counties if trends continue. Prehaps Kenosa and Racine, WI will get in on this. This doesent look like a minor LES event. Advisory seems more likely than the warning but would not doubt it.

[A-L-E-K]

Interestingly, the GGEM is already trying to resolve an area of lower pressure over the southern end of the lake:

Good sign

IWX

HGT SUPPRESSION WITHIN NRN MEMBER OF SPLIT STREAM FLW ACRS THE CONUS

WILL YIELD A QUITE PATTN THIS PD. IMPRESSIVE SRN STREAM SW TROUGH

OFF THE CA COAST HANDLED SIMILARLY THIS MORNING W/MORE CONGRUENT

SOLUTIONS TAKING THIS SYS EWD ALG OR INTO THE GULF COAST AND THEN

WRAPPING SYS UP OVR THE WRN ATL AS IT PHASES W/RENEWED MEAN

TROUGHING CNTRD ALG THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...GIVEN

BREATH OF MID LVL TROUGH DVLPMNT EXTENDING WWD INTO THE GREAT

LAKES...LK EFFECT LOOKS TO GET STEERED WWD INTO NE IL/SE WI FOR MUCH

OF THE PD.

you don't see that written very often.

06z GFS is still showing at least 24+ of LES in NE IL mainly. Doesent look as pro-longed but still several days to watch this. It does look like it tries to hover over the Lake for 6-12hrs before it moves onshore. Will have to watch that east coast storm to see if it ends up furthur west because this will prolong the NEeasterly fetch. Still 24+hrs of LES snow will likely warrent LES watch and or warning by Friday for 6+ in Lake, Cook, Dupage and NW IN counties if trends continue. Prehaps Kenosa and Racine, WI will get in on this. This doesent look like a minor LES event. Advisory seems more likely than the warning but would not doubt it.

It's way too early to speculate about headlines, think Friday and climo alone says a LE warning is probably not happening and at best an extreme longshot.

[NEOH]

IWX

HGT SUPPRESSION WITHIN NRN MEMBER OF SPLIT STREAM FLW ACRS THE CONUS

WILL YIELD A QUITE PATTN THIS PD. IMPRESSIVE SRN STREAM SW TROUGH

OFF THE CA COAST HANDLED SIMILARLY THIS MORNING W/MORE CONGRUENT

SOLUTIONS TAKING THIS SYS EWD ALG OR INTO THE GULF COAST AND THEN

WRAPPING SYS UP OVR THE WRN ATL AS IT PHASES W/RENEWED MEAN

TROUGHING CNTRD ALG THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...GIVEN

BREATH OF MID LVL TROUGH DVLPMNT EXTENDING WWD INTO THE GREAT

LAKES...LK EFFECT LOOKS TO GET STEERED WWD INTO NE IL/SE WI FOR MUCH

OF THE PD.

Surprised to see them so bullish on the LES potential... especially that far west. CLE and BUF are not that enthusiastic about the LES potential off of the eastern lakes. Parameters must look much better over there.

CLE: NORTH FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO COLD AND THE FLOW IS TRYING TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BUF: WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE DEEPENING COLD AIR

AND NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOWS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. DEPTH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THIS DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT...WITH PRIMARILY NUISANCE TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

[A-L-E-K]

12z GFS still showing a pretty good LE signal for NE Illinois.

This isn't all LE, but a solid chunk is and it shows up nicely.

[Tony]

12z GFS still showing a pretty good LE signal for NE Illinois.

This isn't all LE, but a solid chunk is and it shows up nicely.

Quick question. If the GFS continues its westward movement of the storm off the coast would that also influence our LES for maybe a longer duration or more qpf?

[A-L-E-K]

Quick question. If the GFS continues its westward movement of the storm off the coast would that also influence our LES for maybe a longer duration or more qpf?

I think the general mid level trough that will give us the NNE flow should be more or less the same regardless of minor shifts in the track up the coast. Strength and duration issues will probably have to weight until we get a more exact idea from some hi-res models. It really is looking like we'll see a good duration (for this sides standards) period of at least semi-favorable conditions.

[Thundersnow12]

12z GFS still showing a pretty good LE signal for NE Illinois.

This isn't all LE, but a solid chunk is and it shows up nicely.

Ya last few runs of the GFS have trended up qpf for eastern IA/western IL with this crap system before the LE. this looks to be a good event for the western shorelines with best time right now looking like sat night-sunday night.

[weatherguru]

12z NAM trying to keep it mainly in NW IN.

[weatherguru]

Quick question. If the GFS continues its westward movement of the storm off the coast would that also influence our LES for maybe a longer duration or more qpf?

Yes it would. This is what I been mentioning. If this storm was moving up the Apps NE flow will last longer and there would be atlantic moisture thrown into the Lake. Looks like that wont happen. System wont effect our LES really.

[A-L-E-K]

12z NAM trying to keep it mainly in NW IN.

I wouldn't get hung up on the QPF put out by the NAM at that range, which btw only goes to 84hrs. Looking at the upper level flow by hr84, it's pretty nice out of the NE. The GFS really looks best past 84hrs as well.

Yes it would. This is what I been mentioning. If this storm was moving up the Apps NE flow will last longer and there would be atlantic moisture thrown into the Lake. Looks like that wont happen. System wont effect our LES really.

A track up the Apps isn't happening and hasn't been in the cards for some time. The likely track ranges from just off the coast to a few hundred miles off the coast. I think the pattern remains generally positive for LE on this side either way. I'll defer to someone else on duration but say that the favorable period will likely be shorter than what's advertised.

[weatherguru]

I wouldn't get hung up on the QPF put out by the NAM at that range, which btw only goes to 84hrs. Looking at the upper level flow by hr84, it's pretty nice out of the NE. The GFS really looks best past 84hrs as well.

A track up the Apps isn't happening and hasn't been in the cards for some time.

The likely track ranges from just off the coast to a few hundred miles off the coast. I think the pattern remains generally positive for LE on this side either way. I'll defer to someone else on duration but say that the favorable period will likely be shorter than what's advertised.

I know I was just telling answering Tony question if the east coast system were furthur west. You dont think warning type snows if this keeps up?

[A-L-E-K]

I know I was just telling answering Tony question if the east coast system were furthur west. You dont think warning type snows if this keeps up?

No. According to a link posted a day or two ago, Chicago's heaviest LE event only dropped 5-12 inches. Considering how long records have been kept, that's a pretty good indicator of how hard it is to get warning level snows from pure lake effect. Enhancement off a defo band is another animal. I feel like a reasonable expectation for a good Chicago lake effect event (and not saying this one will be good) is 1-4 inches.

[weatherguru]

No. According to a link posted a day or two ago, Chicago's heaviest LE event only dropped 5-12 inches. Considering how long records have been kept, that's a pretty good indicator of how hard it is to get warning level snows from pure lake effect. Enhancement off a defo band is another animal. I feel like a reasonable expectation for a good Chicago lake effect event (and not saying this one will be good) is 1-4 inches.

Ah this is why I'd love to move to NW IN.

[tornadotony]

I know I was just telling answering Tony question if the east coast system were furthur west. You dont think warning type snows if this keeps up?

My guess for warning criteria snows would be southeastern Cook County, eastern Will County, and central and western Lake County, IN, for a few reasons.

1) Climatological favorability: Though I cringe at using this as a reason, it is usually extremely difficult to get a sustained event for most of NE IL, especially say N of 95th Street in the city and suburbs. Impossible? Hell no, but rare.

2) Current model QPF averages: Currently, the model QPF averages a bullseye over the city. Given that the models tend to paint LE QPF a bit too far to the west, I would expect a max just to the east.

3) Synoptic setup: With the low as far to the east as this one is progged to be, even though it looks to be rather large in size, I would expect a wind profile more favorable for a NNE flow than a NE flow at this time. For a purely NE flow/a big Loop/northward threat, I would want a slow-moving low/cutoff farther to the SE, perhaps an Apps runner sort of deal, that could give a more prolonged period of NE flow.

[tornadotony]

Ah this is why I'd love to move to NW IN.

Why, so you could either 1) get shot or 2) die of cancer from inhaling all the factory pollutants?

[tornadotony]

No. According to a link posted a day or two ago, Chicago's heaviest LE event only dropped 5-12 inches. Considering how long records have been kept, that's a pretty good indicator of how hard it is to get warning level snows from pure lake effect. Enhancement off a defo band is another animal. I feel like a reasonable expectation for a good Chicago lake effect event (and not saying this one will be good) is 1-4 inches.

IIRC, 1/22/05 dumped 11.5" of LE at O'Hare...that's not out of the question totally, but I would put the odds of that happening as being higher farther S/SE.

[weatherguru]

Why, so you could either 1) get shot or 2) die of cancer from inhaling all the factory pollutants?

Is it that bad out there? I live on northside of Chicago so I dont see that around here and we dont have factory nowhere near here.I'd love to get 2 feet of LES like it's nothing over there.

[tornadotony]

Is it that bad out there? I live on northside of Chicago so I dont see that around here and we dont have factory nowhere near here.I'd love to get 2 feet of LES like it's nothing over there.

Northern Lake (and even NW Porter) County has a huge crime rate. As for the rest, the air pollution is really bad, especially in the northern parts of Lake/Porter/La Porte Counties. You could get away with central La Porte County on eastward into St. Joseph and Elkhart Counties...

[A-L-E-K]

My guess for warning criteria snows would be southeastern Cook County, eastern Will County, and central and western Lake County, IN, for a few reasons.

1) Climatological favorability: Though I cringe at using this as a reason, it is usually extremely difficult to get a sustained event for most of NE IL, especially say N of 95th Street in the city and suburbs. Impossible? Hell no, but rare.

2) Current model QPF averages: Currently, the model QPF averages a bullseye over the city. Given that the models tend to paint LE QPF a bit too far to the west, I would expect a max just to the east.

3) Synoptic setup: With the low as far to the east as this one is progged to be, even though it looks to be rather large in size, I would expect a wind profile more favorable for a NNE flow than a NE flow at this time. For a purely NE flow/a big Loop/northward threat, I would want a slow-moving low/cutoff farther to the SE, perhaps an Apps runner sort of deal, that could give a more prolonged period of NE flow.

Real good post Tony. The canadian hinted at meso low development (although it doesn't look like ideal meso low conditions) but it's something to watching for those looking for a band to penetrate further inland.

[Thundersnow12]

IIRC, 1/22/05 dumped 11.5" of LE at O'Hare...that's not out of the question totally, but I would put the odds of that happening as being higher farther S/SE.

There is now way they got that much LE snow from that. This was the super clipper that dumped 6-12" area wide and then probably are best LES event that I can remember, I' m not sure what the final was at ORD combining synoptic snow and LES but mdw finished with 12.9" and 15" on the north side of chi.

[TimChgo9]

I got off the bus to come over to this thread...

Far more interesting, in my opinion.

I had been looking at the models, and noting that on a few runs in painted a fair amount of QPF over NE IL/SE WI/NW IN on several runs, and I was wondering what the potential was for some LES this weekend. Given my thoroughly amateur status when it comes to weather, I figured it might be a model anamoly, so I kept a cursory eye on it.

Now, as far as the track of the low goes, I am figuring if it hugs the coast to coming inland to some extent, it would be a great set up for us as far as LES goes. If it moves away from the coast, or goes out to sea, then our chances diminish quite a bit. This could be kind of exciting.

[A-L-E-K]

There is now way they got that much LE snow from that. This was the super clipper that dumped 6-12" area wide and then probably are best LES event that I can remember, I' m not sure what the final was at ORD combining synoptic snow and LES but mdw finished with 12.9" and 15" on the north side of chi.

I'm surprised you all remember these dates, i have the date of one snowstorm memorized. I don't remember what you are talking about, but if it was enhancement or post low LE those have on multiple occasions driven totals on the north side over 10", including last year.

[Thundersnow12]

I'm surprised you all remember these dates, i have the date of one snowstorm memorized. I don't remember what you are talking about, but if it was enhancement or post low LE those have on multiple occasions driven totals on the north side over 10", including last year.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2005&month=1&day=22&hour=13&minute=0

[A-L-E-K]

http://mesonet.agron...our=13&minute=0

thanks for the link, i remember seeing that site before, should have bookmarked, will do this time.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Not sure what year this was from but it shows a nice LE signal for NE IL with a big east coast storm as well...

[Thundersnow12]

Not sure what year this was from but it shows a nice LE signal for NE IL with a big east coast storm as well...

too bad nothing like that is going to happen with this upcoming system lol

[Thundersnow12]

thanks for the link, i remember seeing that site before, should have bookmarked, will do this time.

no problem, probably my favorite site when the weather is boring as hell.