se WI/ne IL/nw IN/se MI lake effect snow event

[KeenerWx]

I don't know about headlines, but the .10-.25 being put out of pure LE by the globals is pretty nice. If the general synoptic setup holds and the hi-res wrfs start showing some nice bands, then it will be the time headlines but i can't recall being under pure LE headlines many times and i can remember them not busting even less.

When GFS throws 0.10-0.25, its suggesting a good lake effect event, 0.25-0.50: major, 0.50+ and somebody is gonna get bamboozled. That's my experience with the gfs, which is not suited well for mesoscale events. Really never looked @ the Euro for assistance in lake effect events.

Hopefully we can get MetTech to run something for this event when the time frame gets closer. It did REALLY good with the placement of the last major lake effect event.

[A-L-E-K]

When GFS throws 0.10-0.25, its suggesting a good lake effect event, 0.25-0.50: major, 0.50+ and somebody is gonna get bamboozled. That's my experience with the gfs, which is not suited well for mesoscale events. Really never looked @ the Euro for assistance in lake effect events.

Hopefully we can get MetTech to run something for this event when the time frame gets closer. It did REALLY good with the placement of the last major lake effect event.

Agree and cosign the MetTech business, his WRF nailed a great lake enhanced event IMBY last year.

[janetjanet998]

LE being picked up by the NAM x-mas eve ..looks like it will snow for a while too with such a slow moving systems

[weatherguru]

LE being picked up by the NAM x-mas eve ..looks like it will snow for a while too with such a slow moving systems

Yep but not as far west as GFS is showing. Mainly southeast of Chicago/NW IN.

[weatherguru]

Skilling in progress..Will let you know and edit this post what he says.

Basically just says lake effect snow showers this weekend and potential for a interesting white x-mas.

[Thundersnow12]

going to be hard to beat the LES season we had last winter on this side of the lake, multiple +SN bands that went pretty far inland, west of me.

[Hoosier]

When GFS throws 0.10-0.25, its suggesting a good lake effect event, 0.25-0.50: major, 0.50+ and somebody is gonna get bamboozled. That's my experience with the gfs, which is not suited well for mesoscale events. Really never looked @ the Euro for assistance in lake effect events.

Hopefully we can get MetTech to run something for this event when the time frame gets closer. It did REALLY good with the placement of the last major lake effect event.

haha, I agree with your comments about the GFS. On the other hand, the mesoscale models often overdo precip but are still better to use.

[Indystorm]

Skilling must be hedging his bets and waiting for more data by taking this position with respect to both system and LES.

[Thundersnow12]

Skilling must be hedging his bets and waiting for more data by taking this position with respect to both system and LES.

He has to after busting high on snow amounts for two systems before this last one and the dry air/virga storm.

[Hoosier]

NAM cbl winds are almost due north at 84 hours, hence the placement focused in Indiana. This could start on the 24th but I really wouldn't expect better organization until later on the 25th which is outside of the time range.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Its really going to be tough to try to figure out the trajectory until we figure out what the low in the Northeast is going to do, just my two cents.

[Hoosier]

Its really going to be tough to try to figure out the trajectory until we figure out what the low in the Northeast is going to do, just my two cents.

Yes, but somebody between Kenosha and Michigan City will get hit.

[weatherguru]

00z GFS backing off on LES potential. That storm in the south is even furthur south and weaker. Geeze pretty soon that storm is gonna torn up before it meager precipatation out across the southern Plains. The northern stream just crushes this system. It doesent wanna go inland. I think that system has alot to do with the LES potential.

[beavis1729]

00z GFS backing off on LES potential. That storm in the south is even furthur south and weaker. Geeze pretty soon that storm is gonna torn up before it meager precipatation out across the southern Plains. The northern stream just crushes this system. It doesent wanna go inland. I think that system has alot to do with the LES potential.

Not necessarily, imo. It's just delayed by 6-12 hours vs. the 18z GFS.

Also, welcome to the board.

[weatherguru]

Not necessarily, imo. It's just delayed by 6-12 hours vs. the 18z GFS.

Also, welcome to the board.

Yeah I saw that. It doesent look like it will last as long on this run. I think that s/w system will play a role in the LES potential.

[weatherguru]

00z GFS still shows a solid 36-48hrs of LES snows in NE IL between 90hr-132hr. Just concerned it may back off on its impressiveness as south/west sw gets weaker and furthur south each run leaving a more meager and quicker LES band.

[Chicago Storm]

00z GFS still shows a solid 36-48hrs of LES snows in NE IL between 90hr-132hr. Just concerned it may back off on its impressiveness as south/west sw gets weaker and furthur south each run leaving a more meager and quicker LES band.

Well, the ECMWF East Coast bomb solution shows decent LES and the GFS with the OTS solution has a nice event, so it looks like with either storm solution there will be a LES event...the question is where it sets up. Both models with their storm solutions agree on LES in SE. WI/NERN IL/NW. IN.

[weatherguru]

Well, the ECMWF East Coast bomb solution shows decent LES and the GFS with the OTS solution has a nice event, so it looks like with either storm solution there will eb a LES event...the question is where it sets up. Both models with their storm solutions agree on LES in SE. WI/NERN IL/NW. IN.

What the 00z ECMWF?

Tom skilling weather blog:

http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/

[weatherguru]

00z GGEM still shows the east coast bomb as well but a but furthur east than ECMWF. That system will play a role in our LES. It can help moisten and prolong the LES potential. Make it more substanial. The stronger and furthur west it will go will def aid in the LES band in NE IL.

[Hoosier]

00z GGEM still shows the east coast bomb as well but a but furthur east than ECMWF. That system will play a role in our LES. It can help moisten and prolong the LES potential. Make it more substanial. The stronger and furthur west it will go will def aid in the LES band in NE IL.

The GFS has almost 4 days of N/NE flow, but lake effect parameters are not favorable during that entire time. Still, this event has duration going for it (by west side standards).

[Hoosier]

Interestingly, the GGEM is already trying to resolve an area of lower pressure over the southern end of the lake:

[weatherguru]

Interestingly, the GGEM is already trying to resolve an area of lower pressure over the southern end of the lake:

What does that mean?

[TheWeatherPimp]

What does that mean?

Potential mesolow formation

[Hoosier]

What does that mean?

It may be trying to hint at a mesolow but this would be better diagnosed on the hi-res models. The most favorable conditions for mesolow development are strong instability and light winds but they can still form under less than ideal conditions. Mesolows can drastically alter band organization and placement.

[BeastFromTheEast]

http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/

[Chicago Storm]

0z...

MKE:

ECMWF: 0.04"

GFS: 0.18"

UGN:

ECMWF: 0.07"

GFS: 0.18"

ORD:

ECMWF: 0.11"

GFS: 0.17"

GYY:

ECMWF: 0.09"

GFS: 0.13"

VPZ:

ECMWF: 0.05"

GFS: 0.09"

[Chicago Storm]

MKE

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.

DECENT FETCH EVOLVES ON SATURDAY WITH AVERAGE DELTA T REACHING 16C

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS DELTA T TO 18C ON SUNDAY WHILE ECMWF

SHUNTS CORE OF COLDEST 850 TEMPS TO THE SOUTH SHUTTING OFF LAKE

EFFECT QUICKER...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON PERSISTENT FECTCH

THROUGH SUNDAY...IN FACT THE GFS KEEPS FAVORABLE FETCH/INSTABILITY

PARAMETERS RIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE PEAK ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO

SUNDAY MORNING THE GFS HAS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 8K FEET. FOR

NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

[Chicago Storm]

LOT

OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR

AREAS IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE

IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL

FOR AREAS IN BOTH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN

MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE LAKE AND IN THESE AREAS TO

SHOW LATEST TRENDS.

[weatherguru]

06z NAM showing the band more nicely at 78hr and 84hr. Looks like it clips ORD southeastward. It did furthur furthur west at 84hr.

[Chicago Storm]

IWX

HGT SUPPRESSION WITHIN NRN MEMBER OF SPLIT STREAM FLW ACRS THE CONUS

WILL YIELD A QUITE PATTN THIS PD. IMPRESSIVE SRN STREAM SW TROUGH

OFF THE CA COAST HANDLED SIMILARLY THIS MORNING W/MORE CONGRUENT

SOLUTIONS TAKING THIS SYS EWD ALG OR INTO THE GULF COAST AND THEN

WRAPPING SYS UP OVR THE WRN ATL AS IT PHASES W/RENEWED MEAN

TROUGHING CNTRD ALG THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...GIVEN

BREATH OF MID LVL TROUGH DVLPMNT EXTENDING WWD INTO THE GREAT

LAKES...LK EFFECT LOOKS TO GET STEERED WWD INTO NE IL/SE WI FOR MUCH

OF THE PD.