tornadotony Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 updated map to account for NW shift, watch the morrain hill state part area if things set up a little more west than i show, this area has made out big before. I think that's a really good forecast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think that's a really good forecast right now. Theres a minor elevation increase when you reach western lake and eastern McHenry that can help squeeze out some decent snows in rare occasions when forcing can set up far enough west. FWIW this is a bit of a wishcast as my parents are out that way and i'll be out there this evening and possibly over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 updated map to account for NW shift, watch the morrain hill state part area if things set up a little more west than i show, this area has made out big before. thanks for including me by a smidge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 updated map to account for NW shift, watch the morrain hill state part area if things set up a little more west than i show, this area has made out big before. ...And Merry Christmas to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Interesting. I wonder where Bow is right now? We will end up getting our fair share potentially, making up for the near miss of the system snow, if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 milwaukee update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1030 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2010 .UPDATE... LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS SHIFTED ONSHORE...MAINLY SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN MILWAUKEE. SOME WAVES IN THE BAND...BUT IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STATIONARY IN THIS LOCATION SINCE 8AM. MODELS WOULD HAVE MOVED THE BAND FARTHER WEST...AND THUS INLAND AS FAR NORTH AS OZAUKEE COUNTY BY NOW. SEEING OFFSHORE WINDS AT SHEBOYGAN AND MANITOWOC...SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE BAND SHIFTING INLAND FARTHER NORTH BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD LIKELY BE LATER AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE WE SEE MUCH OF ANY SNOW FOR OZAUKEE AND MILWAUKEE COUNTIES. ONE CONCERN IN THIS THINKING IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MESO LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE. HRRR MODEL HINTING AT THIS BUT CANT FIND ANY EVIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONS OR SATELLITE YET. NO CHANGES IN POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO LET THE EVENT EVOLVE BEFORE WE CAN GET ANY DIFFERENT HANDLE ON THAT. ZABEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 chicago aviation update EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE SCATTERED AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SNOW BAND SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. USING BUFKIT THE BEST CLOUD DEPTH...6000-8000 FT...AND THUS TIME OF BEST SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE INDICATED A DETERIORATING TREND IN CIG/VSBY WITH BEST CHANCE OF IFR BEING AFTER 00Z THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. THE OTHER QUESTION IS JUST WHERE THE SNOW BAND WILL SET UP. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BAND WILL BE FROM MKE TO ORD BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO A NARROW BAND ABOUT 10 MILES WIDE. FLUCTUATIONS IN THIS BAND FROM WEST TO EAST COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT FORECAST. FORECAST TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SHALLOWER CLOUD DEPTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT MORE NNW BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT TO BE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z WRF NMM. Zippo for the Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z WRF NMM. Zippo for the Chicago area. That looks odd. I wonder if all that junk south of Kankakee is just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That looks odd. I wonder if all that junk south of Kankakee is just noise. Yeah I'd side with noise. 12z ARW still has snow for NE IL, but mainly focused on Lake (IL) and northern Cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I was expecting disorganized right now but this is pathetic. Models still indicating better conditions coming together later today so would expect an upswing in intensity. Just be patient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 will let ya all know how it is in southern ozaukee county later tonight headed over there around 5 or so. hoping for a few flakes, but not excited just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 oh yeah and MERRY CHRISTMAS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nice band developing across the north end of the lake...likely the begining of the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Northern Cook getting a little action right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nice band developing across the north end of the lake...likely the begining of the main event. Yep I could see this intensify and hit SE WI/NE IL between 7-9pm. BTW, getting some light LES here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 dropped ozaukee county out of the lake effect snow advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lake effect snowband getting stronger in last 15 minutes in over southern LAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Definitely seeing an increase in organization and this should continue. Some pretty healthy returns moving into downtown Chicago right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 The new RUC really cranks this thing right over the city later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 can u post the new ruc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The new RUC really cranks this thing right over the city later. How long and how much? BTW, NWS green bay radar is really getting its act together over the Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am thinking best time for LES will be 8pm to 8pm with 1-2 inch per hr snowfall rates if this can hold in a single place in Lake and Cook. 6-12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Things starting to look like they are increasing over the Thumb/SE even if its still small increases they have been steady for the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The new RUC really cranks this thing right over the city later. Yeah looks like the Thumb down into the suburbs over this way light up in the next couple hours too per the ruc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 anyone new ruc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nice light moderate snow in Northfield IL, definitely heading in the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll take another crack at this and say that the heaviest amounts end up between Waukegan and Chicago. Confidence about a 4 out of 10. The shape of the coast line makes it more difficult than a typical northwest IN event...a 10 mile eastward shift in the band could theoretically move it 30 miles farther down the shore in northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NWS MKE went way less on snow totals and trimmed advisories. Calling for 3-4 inches in kenosa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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