se WI/ne IL/nw IN/se MI lake effect snow event

[weatherguru]

you should go to bed so Santa Clause can visit..and deliver your lake effect snow

to old for that.

[MadTown]

headed to grafton wi tomorrow for christmas looks like from the models posted above might have a little snow...who knows though I can remember one good les event about 20 yrs ago in ozaukee county where we got about 7"

[KeenerWx]

This event seems to have a lot of uncertainty...even more than usual. At this point I honestly don't know where the max amounts will end up.

The rarity of a significant single band event in Illinois is part of the uncertainty.

With that said, no way i get 2"+ from lake effect. Not this time.

[KeenerWx]

to old for that.

Don't spend too much time on this event. Especially if your hopes are really high. Lake effect is way too fickle. Unless, of course, you have a general fascination with LES. In that case, you'll never be disappointed.

Tomorrow night things should amp up. Until then, don't expect to see any impressive band formation.

[Hoosier]

The rarity of a significant single band event in Illinois is part of the uncertainty.

With that said, no way i get 2"+ from lake effect. Not this time.

No doubt. LOT and MKX have their hands full.

[Baum]

Boys in Chicago area we will wake up to one of the most picturesque Christmas mornings over the last 30 years.....it doesn't happen often. Trust me. Merry Christmas ...

[Hoosier]

Don't spend too much time on this event. Especially if your hopes are really high. Lake effect is way too fickle. Unless, of course, you have a general fascination with LES. In that case, you'll never be disappointed.

Tomorrow night things should amp up. Until then, don't expect to see any impressive band formation.

I think it will look better even by late morning/early afternoon, although that's not saying much with how it looks right now.

[Thundersnow12]

Boys in Chicago area we will wake up to one of the most picturesque Christmas mornings over the last 30 years.....it doesn't happen often. Trust me. Merry Christmas ...

same to you man.

gotta love this pattern.

and we got the big one possibly after this LE event. hoping to get in on some LES tomorrow being at my aunts further southeast of here.

best of luck to Alek!

[weatherguru]

I have a feeling later this afternoon someone in NE IL is gonna get pounded for a good 24+hrs.

[Chicago Storm]

..LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY

TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS

SHOULD DIMINISH IN ILLINOIS AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY

SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN VARY

WILDLY OVER SURPRISINGLY SHORT DISTANCES. LOCALLY AN INCH OR SO

OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BY SUNSET...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO

SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST PORTIONS

OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6

INCHES...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* HAZARDS...THE MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY

RESULT IN GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH UNTREATED ROADWAYS

BECOMING SNOW COVERED AND TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

* IMPACTS...DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS...ANYONE TRAVELING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ENCOUNTER

SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND POOR ROAD CONDITIONS. JUST

BECAUSE IT IS NOT SNOWING AT YOUR HOUSE...DOES NOT MEAN THERE

IS NOT AN INTENSE SNOW SHOWER JUST DOWN THE ROAD. ANYONE PLANNING

TRAVEL IN THE IMMEDIATE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA THIS HOLIDAY

WEEKEND SHOULD LEAVE EXTRA TIME TO GET TO INTENDED DESTINATIONS.

[Hoosier]

Nice lake effect discussion by Gino...

[Chicago Storm]

LOT

BIG CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL

THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUING TO SEE MODELS FLIP FLOPPING AROUND

WITH THE VARIOUS KEY LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS...WHICH DOESNT EXACTLY

LEND ITSELF TO ALL THAT MUCH CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 00Z

RUNS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS 12/18Z RUNS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL

GRADUALLY CLIMB TODAY PEAKING TONIGHT BETWEEN 7-8K FEET

TONGIHT...WHICH IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT SNOW

EVENT BUT NOT EXACTLY OFF THE CHARTS. LAKE-H8 DELTA T VALUES ARE

ONLY PROGGED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 13C NOW TO AROUND 15C

TONIGHT...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT BUT HARDLY SPECTACULAR. FORECAST

SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A PERIOD TONIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL

CLIMB INTO THE PRIME DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS

WILL PROBABLY BE AT THEIR BEST TONIGHT POSSIBLY PEAKING NEAR 20:1.

THE OLD SCHOOL LES FORECAST TECHNIQUE WOULD SUGGEST 6 HOURLY

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES ASSUMING LITTLE SHIFT IN WIND DURING

THE 6 HOURLY PERIODS. WINDS LOOK FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH

WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-6 INCHES SOMEWHERE OVER NE IL.

VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PAINTING A MUCH MORE FOREBODING PICTURE

WITH VERY BEEFY QPF AMOUNTS...IN EXCESS OF 0.6 INCHES IN MANY CASES.

WITH THE HIGHER SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS THAT ARE COMMON WITH LAKE EFFECT

SNOW THAT WOULD RESULT IN LOCAL SNOWFALL TOTALS 10+ INCHES. HAVE

SEEN A FEW LAKE EFFECT EVENTS THIS YEAR WHERE THE VARIOUS VERSIONS

OF THE WRF WERE FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...SO REALLY DONT SEE A

GOOD ARGUMENT TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH FORECASTED SNOW TOTALS. MORE

OFTEN THAN NOT BELIEVE ONE WILL GET BURNED (SOMETIMES BADLY) TRYING

TO FORECAST MESO-BETA SCALE CONVECTIVE QPF FROM A MODEL...EVEN A

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL LIKE THE 4KM (AND LOWER RESOLUTION) WRF'S.

JUST HAVENT SEEN THE EVIDENCE THAT THE SCIENCE IS THERE YET.

ALREADY SEEING JACQUES LES PLUME GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER A BIT ON

MKE TERMINAL DOPPLER. THIS BAND WILL PROBABLY LOSE SOME OF ITS

ORGANIZATION LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE ENHANCED LAND

BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WITH LAKE EFFECT PROBABLY TRANSITIONING TO

SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS FOR A TIME TODAY.

PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE AT THIS POINT SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD

ENOUGH 3-5 INCH TOTALS TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY...SO AM PLANNING TO

HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NE IL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING

LAKE EFFECT TO BEGIN TO REALLY RAMP UP TONIGHT AND LAST INTO SUNDAY

MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION TO THE BAND AT

THIS TIME ITS PROBABLY BEST TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND START

THE ADVISORY OUT OF THE GATE THIS MORNING.

PLAN TO GO WITH TOTALS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE...BUT SEEING AS HOW

LAKE EFFECT TENDS TO BE FICKLE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AREAS IN THE

ADVISORY THAT END UP WITH LESS. AND HECK...IF THE MESOSCALE GLOOM

AND DOOM MODELS VERIFY THEN THERE WOULD BE PLACES THAT END UP WITH

MORE TOO! IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WEST OF

THE ADVISORY BUT WANTED TO CONFINE HEADLINES TO ANTICIPATED HARDEST

HIT AREAS AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND (OR POSSIBLY UPGRADE) THE

ADVISORY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

[Thundersnow12]

LOT

PLAN TO GO WITH TOTALS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE...BUT SEEING AS HOW

LAKE EFFECT TENDS TO BE FICKLE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AREAS IN THE

ADVISORY THAT END UP WITH LESS. AND HECK...IF THE MESOSCALE GLOOM

AND DOOM MODELS VERIFY THEN THERE WOULD BE PLACES THAT END UP WITH

MORE TOO! IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WEST OF

THE ADVISORY BUT WANTED TO CONFINE HEADLINES TO ANTICIPATED HARDEST

HIT AREAS AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND (OR POSSIBLY UPGRADE) THE

ADVISORY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

what I was wondering out earlier, will be in naperville tomorrow afternoon and evening.

[weatherguru]

.ESPECIALLY WITH THE 00Z

RUNS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS 12/18Z RUNS.

Actually thought it was the opposite.

[weatherguru]

Well we already got 2-3 inches of new fresh snow so add 3-6+ on top of that tommorow.

[Chicago Storm]

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM

CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO

6 AM CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BAND OF SNOW IS JUST OFFSHORE AND

SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE

WILL BE PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE BANDS

SHIFT AROUND FROM ONE COUNTY TO THE NEXT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES...THOUGH IN THESE SITUATIONS

LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT

TO PINPOINT.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER RIGHT ALONG

THE LAKE SHORE.

* IMPACTS...GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND RATHER LIGHT

WINDS...LESS THAN NORMAL IMPACT TO TRAFFIC. SNOW COVERED AND

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LOCAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO ONE HALF MILE

OR LESS.

[Chicago Storm]

[A-L-E-K]

Mod snow fat flake, lake meso

[A-L-E-K]

fwiw ill be out by barrington this evening, so reports will be from there later

[Thundersnow12]

that moved pretty far west, im sitting inside the 2" line. would easily be happy with that much LE.

off to church.

[michsnowfreak]

Merry Christmas all! Heres DTX on the lake effect potential

WITH SNOW COVER OF AT LEAST AN INCH OR MORE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS

THE AREA...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL EXPERIENCE

A WHITE CHRISTMAS TODAY. WITH THE QUESTION OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS OUT

OF THE WAY...THE MAIN FOCUS TURNS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL OUT OF

THE SKY TODAY. A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL PASS TOO FAR

TO THE SOUTH TO BRING SNOW INTO OUR AREA...HOWEVER THE LOW WILL

ALLOW A TROUGH AXIS TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT

LAKES...TURNING WINDS TO A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW

TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FROM A NORTH NORTHWEST DIRECTION...THIS

TROUGH WILL TURN WINDS NORTH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS

ON WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. DELTA T VALUES TODAY WILL BE

A FAVORABLE 17 DEGREES WITH ADEQUATE INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 4K FT

AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH 850MB. OMEGA

UNDER THE INVERSION IS A DECENT 1.25 TO 1.75 MICROBARS WITH A 70 TO

90 MILE FETCH. THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS THAT SET UP LOOK TO BE OF THE

MULTIPLE BAND VARIETY GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND THE FETCH

MORE NORMAL TO THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE HURON. THE 00Z HI-RES DTX WRF

MODEL CAPTURES THE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS

QUITE WELL.

WHILE THE MULTIPLE BAND STRUCTURE BRINGS SNOW TO A WIDER SWATH OF

REAL ESTATE...THIS STRUCTURE IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY BANDS OF

SNOW TO SIT OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. AREAS

ACROSS THE THUMB WILL SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AS THE BANDS COME

ONSHORE...SOMEWHERE AROUND AN INCH. FURTHER INLAND THE REST OF

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOULD SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT TODAY...WITH

AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A LIGHT DUSTING.

THE CONTINUED THICK BLANKET OF CLOUDS THAT WILL COVER THE CENTRAL

GREAT LAKES WILL AGAIN MUTE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THE LACK OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL

GENERALLY BE WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS MAINLY IN THE

UPPER 20S...WITH A FEW READINGS AROUND 30 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...

STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER ONTARIO WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE

WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO CARVE OUT

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHERN

OHIO BORDER/KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING. PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW OFF

LAKE HURON WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW THEN BACKING TO THE NORTH

SUNDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST BY MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS STILL PROGGED TO

BE IN THE -12 TO -13 C RANGE...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE

ENHANCEMENT...BUT CONVECTIVE DEPTHS (PER NAM SOUNDINGS) ARE NOT MUCH

HIGHER THAN 850 MB...AND THUS STILL FAVORING HIGH POPS WITH

GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES PER 12 HOUR

PERIOD). WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW...SUBTLE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY

COME INTO PLAY...AND ACTUALLY THINK THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS LAPEER COUNTY BEFORE THE FLOW

BACKS TO THE NORTH. WHEN THE FLOW DOES BECOME NORTH...INVERSION

HEIGHTS QUICKLY TREND DOWNWARD...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS AS WE TREND TO A

DOMINATE BAND SUNDAY NIGHT.

[Powerball]

Well I have pixie dust falling this morning with the sun beaming through.

Merry Christmas!!!

[BeastFromTheEast]

[MidwestChaser]

4" to 6"

[tornadotony]

I'm likely going to bust and bust hard on this one guys. Later this afternoon/evening, as the inversion heights lower, the RUC has that band well into IL, with pretty NErly winds just off the deck. Given how the RUC performed during the past couple LES events I've had to forecast for, my forecast is in hot water. LOT's advisories look good right now.

[weatherguru]

Woke to be surprised MKE calling for 4-8 locally a foot or more. I am also surprised I hardly see anything over the Lake yet. No band developement or anything.

So Tony how much u think for NE IL/SE WI and how long?

[A-L-E-K]

Woke to be surprised MKE calling for 4-8 locally a foot or more. I am also surprised I hardly see anything over the Lake yet. No band developement or anything.

So Tony how much u think for NE IL/SE WI and how long?

you aren't going to for a while, this was never forecasted to be a 36 hr single band event.

[weatherguru]

you aren't going to for a while, this was never forecasted to be a 36 hr single band event.

I know. To hyped but hey MKE went with a snow advisory for 4-8+

[A-L-E-K]

I know. To hyped but hey MKE went with a snow advisory for 4-8+

Too hyped? No, not really.

And recent wrf trends have better banding (tonight) north into SE Wisconsin and then west of you into far NW Cook, Lake and far SE McHenry.

[A-L-E-K]

updated map to account for NW shift, watch the morrain hill state part area if things set up a little more west than i show, this area has made out big before.