A-L-E-K Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 snowing pretty good, not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 snowing pretty good, not great. At least it's good for the Christmas mood. Spiked eggnog will make this even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Low end moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN...CHICAGO 651 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010 NOW RADAR IS BEGINNING TO INDICATE DISORGANIZED AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. WHILE HEAVIER PLUMES OF SNOWFALL HAVE YET TO FORM...THESE AREAS COULD SEE OCCASIONAL MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW. CONTINUE TO EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. Good so far. Light mod snow right now. 00z NAM develops lake band well before 06z and nice band at 12z: http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_018l.gif LOT thinking 1+ already by Midnight. This sypnotic left-over should be out of the whole area by 11pm and then the LES band will kick in. I already see the signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good so far. Light mod snow right now. 00z NAM develops lake band well before 06z and nice band at 12z: http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_018l.gif LOT thinking 1+ already by Midnight. This sypnotic left-over should be out of the whole area by 11pm and then the LES band will kick in. I already see the signal. Zzzzzzz looks pretty lame to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Zzzzzzz looks pretty lame to me. By 12z the band barely moves (by 2pm Saturday) http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp0_024.shtml Don't let the "light green" fool you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp0_030.shtml By 7pm tommorow LES still continues with some possible sypnotic wrap around flurries/light snow. 18hrs of LES. Snow all day later tonight tommorow in Chicago. Yeah 1-3 inches alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 By 12z the band barely moves (by 2pm Saturday) http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp0_024.shtml Don't let the "light green" fool you. I think were in the time now where there is no point in using 6hr qpf plots of the NAM for this event, we have hi res runs of several models that are 1hr and 3hr intervals as well as actual nowcasting with radar, wind profilers, bufkit, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Low end moderate 850's nearing -8 C..so Delta T's are around 11 or 12 right now. Moist all the way through the column with upper lake preconditioning (winds a little above the surface are almost due north). Inversion is about 1600m right now. Instability should be on the rise later on, and inversion heights will slowly increase. Therefore, we should start to see a little more organization as the night wears on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think were in the time now where there is no point in using 6hr qpf plots of the NAM for this event, we have hi res runs of several models that are 1hr and 3hr intervals as well as actual nowcasting with radar, wind profilers, bufkit, etc. Yeah, it's time to stop looking at the NAM. Now it's time to watch the RUC/WRF. More importantly is watching radar trends, and looking at boundary level winds. Winds in the upper levels should remain almost pretty close to N (maybe veering from NNE to NNW), so that's not so important. The boundary level winds will tell you where this band will go. Later on, we should watch for midlake convergence, etc, to see if this band will park in any one location. Also, this thing will take a little bit of time to get going. Conditions right now aren't that favorable for a strong band. So, just sit back and watch the show for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking at the 00z NAM it would snow non-stop for 36+hrs and has .25-.50 QPF in all of far NE IL and even far SE WI. Heaviest NW of Indiana. The band never becomes disorganizes or shifty. It would snow well into Sunday night. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p48_048l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Most importantly that east coast storm is looking mighty healthy. This can help establish a long narrow band of heavy LES in NE IL southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Most importantly that east coast storm is looking mighty healthy. This can help establish a long narrow band of heavy LES in NE IL southward. You can stop looking at the NAM...some many other things to do and Keener and I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You can stop looking at the NAM...some many other things to do and Keener and I said. Okay just saying. Any new HI-RES models come out tonight? Nobody even mentioning them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Okay just saying. Any new HI-RES models come out tonight? Nobody even mentioning them. None are out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Skilling update saying 6+ near Lake. Showed his RPM model I believe and wow looks pretty impressive. Looks like HI-RES WFI model or whatever that model is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Milwaukee update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 834 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010 .UPDATE... AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS BORDER MOVES OFF LATE TONIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH. NEXT CONCERN IS LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL. TERMINAL DOPPLER DOES SHOW LAKE SNOW BANDS BUT THESE WILL PUSH INLAND MAINLY FROM KENOSHA SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS. BETTER LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD START SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASES. 00Z NAM INDICATES THIS POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SATURATED RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 750 MB. INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS SUNDAY EVEN WITH CONTINUED FAVORABLE FETCH. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Heavier snowsnowers look to be located in N Cook county currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Milwaukee update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 834 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010 .UPDATE... AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS BORDER MOVES OFF LATE TONIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH. NEXT CONCERN IS LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL. TERMINAL DOPPLER DOES SHOW LAKE SNOW BANDS BUT THESE WILL PUSH INLAND MAINLY FROM KENOSHA SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS. BETTER LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD START SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASES. 00Z NAM INDICATES THIS POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SATURATED RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 750 MB. INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS SUNDAY EVEN WITH CONTINUED FAVORABLE FETCH. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY. Yep MKE now saying "several inches" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Heavier snowsnowers look to be located in N Cook county currently. Yeah I am in Northern Cook and I see it coming. Could drop a half inch possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 chicago update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 909 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010 .DISCUSSION... 909 PM CST NO CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THINGS GENERALLY WORKING OUT AS PLANNED TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE SYNOPTIC SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN...HOWEVER ALREADY HAVE SEEN A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ELEMENTS BLOW INTO NE ILLINOIS. BRIEF LOOK AT THE 00Z GUIDANCE COMING IN STILL SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD LAKE EFFECT SET-UP DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO REALLY LIFT. GOING TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE BUT PRELIM THOUGHTS ARE THAT MAY END UP NEEDING TO GO WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NE IL DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE. SPECIAL THANKS TO COLLEAGUES OVER AT IWX FOR THOUGHTS/INPUT/EXPERTISE ON THE WEEKEND LAKE EFFECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 nice 35dbz LE shower heading to ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Milwaukee update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 834 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010 .UPDATE... AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS BORDER MOVES OFF LATE TONIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH. NEXT CONCERN IS LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL. TERMINAL DOPPLER DOES SHOW LAKE SNOW BANDS BUT THESE WILL PUSH INLAND MAINLY FROM KENOSHA SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS. BETTER LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD START SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASES. 00Z NAM INDICATES THIS POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SATURATED RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 750 MB. INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS SUNDAY EVEN WITH CONTINUED FAVORABLE FETCH. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY. chicago update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 909 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010 .DISCUSSION... 909 PM CST NO CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THINGS GENERALLY WORKING OUT AS PLANNED TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE SYNOPTIC SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN...HOWEVER ALREADY HAVE SEEN A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ELEMENTS BLOW INTO NE ILLINOIS. BRIEF LOOK AT THE 00Z GUIDANCE COMING IN STILL SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD LAKE EFFECT SET-UP DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO REALLY LIFT. GOING TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE BUT PRELIM THOUGHTS ARE THAT MAY END UP NEEDING TO GO WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NE IL DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE. SPECIAL THANKS TO COLLEAGUES OVER AT IWX FOR THOUGHTS/INPUT/EXPERTISE ON THE WEEKEND LAKE EFFECT. Both sound a bit more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 chicago update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 909 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010 .DISCUSSION... 909 PM CST NO CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THINGS GENERALLY WORKING OUT AS PLANNED TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE SYNOPTIC SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN...HOWEVER ALREADY HAVE SEEN A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ELEMENTS BLOW INTO NE ILLINOIS. BRIEF LOOK AT THE 00Z GUIDANCE COMING IN STILL SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD LAKE EFFECT SET-UP DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO REALLY LIFT. GOING TO WAIT TO GET A BETTER LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE BUT PRELIM THOUGHTS ARE THAT MAY END UP NEEDING TO GO WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NE IL DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE. SPECIAL THANKS TO COLLEAGUES OVER AT IWX FOR THOUGHTS/INPUT/EXPERTISE ON THE WEEKEND LAKE EFFECT. Looks good so far maybe warning type snows tommorow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Should kick in better by 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks good so far maybe warning type snows tommorow! Me thinks any warning would be for southeastern Cook over to Indiana. Chicago Storm when do the hi res models come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looking at the TMKE, some nice enhancement from Janesville on down to Joe in Streamwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LES making its move on Wheaton shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Me thinks any warning would be for southeastern Cook over to Indiana. Chicago Storm when do the hi res models come out? LSX WRF coming in now and says congrats to SE. Wisconsin and NE. Illinois...especially Lake/McHenry Counties. SPC WRF comes in within a half an hour and the NMM/ARW are in after 11. looking at the TMKE, some nice enhancement from Janesville on down to Joe in Streamwood Yea, getting a bit of enhancement now per radar. Looks like LE is making it as far inland as Woodstock in McHenry Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LSX WRF coming in now and says congrats to SE. Wisconsin and NE. Illinois...especially Lake/McHenry Counties. SPC WRF comes in within a half an hour and the NMM/ARW are in after 11. Yea, getting a bit of enhancement now per radar. Looks like LE is making it as far inland as Woodstock in McHenry Co. Yep looking furthur NW than thought. Does NWS use those models? I think thats why they wanted to wait until the overnight package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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