A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm thinking the headlines will likely be LES advisories for Lake IL, Porter, and Will, and LES warnings for Cook and Lake IN. Keener, your map looks good, but I would shift the axis of 12"+ about 3-4mi south given the decent flow. I would also adjust the 6-12" area accordingly along the IL/IN border and across Lake County IN. I have a terrible memory for event, but can't recall the last time Cook was under an LES warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have a terrible memory for event, but can't recall the last time Cook was under an LES warning? 1/22/05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS phase east coast storm much sooner looks like hits for NYC into BOS this also keeps winds more NNE vs N off the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, the new 12z St. Louis WRF keeps the LES band snaking over Chicago off and on between the 15-60 hr time range. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/wrf/wrfdisplay.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, the new 12z St. Louis WRF keeps the LES band snaking over Chicago off and on between the 15-60 hr time range. http://www.crh.noaa..../wrfdisplay.php Looks similar to what LOT was saying, starts in NE Illinois, pushes into NW Indiana and then moves back west before dying out. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Don't have much time to evaluate but I'd probably expand or shift my 6+ area a tad west at this point. Still would think Lake county Indiana sees the highest totals out of this event but it's not out the question that somewhere in Cook does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 hi-res nmm pretty wet and still snowing at hr 48, ARW further north (actually shafts NW IN through 48). 0z 4km WRF good for NE IL as well. starting to see some decent hi-res support. That ARW really seems to have a west bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Don't have much time to evaluate but I'd probably expand or shift my 6+ area a tad west at this point. Still would think Lake county Indiana sees the highest totals out of this event but it's not out the question that somewhere in Cook does. Somewhere between Blue Island and Gary looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That ARW really seems to have a west bias. yeah it's pretty trashy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 RGEM hammers the IL/WI border through Chicago. I have seen this model do pretty well with placement on numerous occasions so might be something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Take your pick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Take your pick... I will take A. Dont you think some type of watch or warning should go up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Skillings RPM model favors an area from Racine, WI down to Central Cook Co. It's actually similar to the ARW posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I will take A. Dont you think some type of watch or warning should go up soon. Probably with the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 will be interesting to see if we can get a band to swing through eastern Kane like happened in the past with some events last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The ARW has been pretty garbage, which is good since it gives me almost nothing. The good news is signs are pointing more towards the Illinois side than Indiana right now, which is a rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Take your pick... Also to add, it is still snowing past the period shown on those maps... I would lean towards the ARW at this point since it does have some support from Skilling's rpm and the rgem as Hoosier said on the last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The ARW has been pretty garbage, which is good since it gives me almost nothing. The good news is signs are pointing more towards the Illinois side than Indiana right now, which is a rarity. I watch these models everyday for LES prospects here in Northeast Ohio. The ARW most always has a western bias with regards to band placement in addition to having a wetter QPF bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I watch these models everyday for LES prospects here in Northeast Ohio. The ARW most always has a western bias with regards to band placement in addition to having a wetter QPF bias. someone mentioned that earlier in this thread...i think. But thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow. I told you Alek for the last few days what was going to happen. This type of set-up which is very rare usually is NE IL special lake effect snowstorm as its looking. LOT will probably continue to hold off here but if current trends continue I think Lake effect snow watch will be posted in Lake, Cook, Will and NW IN for 6-12+sometime tonight.GFS continued was pretty good at this for several days now. 36+hrs of LES. Someone gonna get hammered I feel our area is in bulleye if this westward trends folds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow. I told you Alek for the last few days what was going to happen. This type of set-up which is very rare usually is NE IL special lake effect snowstorm as its looking. LOT will probably continue to hold off here but if current trends continue I think Lake effect snow watch will be posted in Lake, Cook, Will and NW IN for 6-12+sometime tonight. Holler at me when Lake and Cook see 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Holler at me when Lake and Cook see 6-12". Some of the these HI-RES models are alreadys showing signs of .50+ QPF in Lake AND Cook and looks furthur west. What did skilling say exactly? I think the Lake band will set up within the next 8-12hrs and actually think it may not shift in NW IN after all. Now I know these HI-RES models tend to overdo QPF but I think a 36+hr duration seems reasonable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I mean come on now the pattern is very conductive to Lake snows in NE IL. H pressure building in from the NW and Low pressure moving NW up the east coast setting up a favorable long NEasterly fetch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I mean come on now the pattern is very conductive to Lake snows in NE IL. H pressure building in from the NW and Low pressure moving NW up the east coast setting up a favorable long NEasterly fetch Things look decent, delta ts aren't great but should be good enough. And this isn't the first time we've had a seemingly good setup only to see the best convergence end up east. The models have a pretty good history of advertising this bands too far west. Calling for a nearly historic lake effect event for chicago isn't something i'd do without a little more agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Things look decent, delta ts aren't great but should be good enough. And this isn't the first time we've had a seemingly good setup only to see the best convergence end up east. The models have a pretty good history of advertising this bands too far west. Calling for a nearly historic lake effect event for chicago isn't something i'd do without a little more agreement. Right I am being a bit more optimistic here but we shall see. I think it does warrent Lake effect snow watch in afternoon package. I think LES will develop around 9-2am. What did Skilling say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is my final call for the LE event...light blue is 1-3", blue is 3-6", purple is 6-12", and rose is a rather uncertain area where I think, if we see totals greater than a foot (which I think is possible), the highest totals are likely to be. I think the ARW westward bias is showing itself, and I think the rose area is likely to see the longest duration of heavier LES with any oscillation of the band/bands taken into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What did skilling say exactly? Same call as last night... Favored lakeside areas could pick up 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Tony's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Tony's map Watch it bust epically lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Watch it bust epically lol... I don't think i'd hold it against anyone for busting on a LE event, much less one targeting NE Illinois where there is so little precedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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