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se WI/ne IL/nw IN/se MI lake effect snow event

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

THE NCEP MODELS DO NOT HANDLE QPF (LES) like it does with system snows. When NW IN gets hammered with 2+ feet of snow do the models show the QPF and intensity of precip? No. It just shows a light to mod band coming down the lake.

We are about 2 counties away from seeing 3-6+ with a 13:1-16:1 ratio just from main sypnotic band alone.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p36_042l.gif

There's reason to believe the synoptic is overdone, especially to the northeast (ord), models have been consistent in that regard in nw flow events this year.

And as for le, most models in range aren't showing much westward penetration and when you combine that with their tendency to overdo things west you see the concern.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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There's reason to believe the synoptic is overdone, especially to the northeast (ord), models have been consistent in that regard in nw flow events this year.

And as for le, most models in range aren't showing much westward penetration and when you combine that with their tendency to overdo things west you see the concern.

Yeah but it actually trended wetter in recent runs instead of going the other way. Of course there's still some time to trend back down. :lol:

I agree about westward penetration. Cook/Will should get in on it barring any changes but really thinking Lake county Indiana is the epicenter.

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weatherguru

weatherguru

Posted
Posted

Okay LOT gonna come out with discussion on the LES potentailly over the next few hrs.

Meanwhile GFS continues to hit LAKE AND COOK MAINLY from 42hr to 78hr.

So here my take.

Synotic snow: Around 12pm through early Friday night

Total Accumations: 2-4 inches (prehaps more if we get a wetter furthur north track than thought. You know these WAA tend to end up furthur north)

.LES: Kicks in around night Saturday and last through Sunday 4-6+ in Cook and Lake.

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weatherguru

weatherguru

Posted
Posted

Yeah but it actually trended wetter in recent runs instead of going the other way. Of course there's still some time to trend back down. :lol:

I agree about westward penetration. Cook/Will should get in on it barring any changes but really thinking Lake county Indiana is the epicenter.

You base that on climo and not the model. The GFS clearly shows the band in NE IL most of the time.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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You base that on climo and not the model. The GFS clearly shows the band in NE IL most of the time.

I base it on a combination of what's being modeled + climo. I would not be using the GFS to try to delineate the western edge. Heck even using the NAM for that can be dangerous. I could be wrong...we shall see.

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weatherguru

weatherguru

Posted
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Persnoally though to see alot of LES on X-mas and Sunday and making some serious cash because I usually get calls around from the village and I get paid 20.00 a house when there 6+ and usually get tons of elderly people calling to shovel the snow I would be happy. Thats why I am kinda hitting hard on this.

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weatherguru

weatherguru

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Posted

Persnoally though to see alot of LES on X-mas and Sunday and making some serious cash because I usually get calls around from the village and I get paid 20.00 a house when there 6+ and usually get tons of elderly people calling to shovel the snow I would be happy. Thats why I am kinda hitting hard on this.

The last big winter storm 2 years ago I think Ohare got over 9-10 inches I made something like over 300 within 3 days snowblowing.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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So here are my current thoughts in map form. This is only LES and doesn't factor in the synoptic snow. In the area bounded by light blue I would expect snow showers with generally minor accumulations. In the darker blue I would expect moderate accumulations. Purple is 6+ and the area in black is where I think the jackpot may end up. May be a tad too liberal with the outer zone but didn't pay as much attention there.

post-14-0-28357500-1293146069.jpg

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

I cant believe Im saying this for a lake effect thread, but you can add SE MI to the thread title. We have what is probably the best setup we can ask for for lake effect snow in this area of the state, a nne flow and available moisture over Huron.

LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR

LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, POSSIBLY

BEGINNING AS SOON AS CHRISTMAS MORNING IN THE THUMB. LIMITING AT

THE ONSET WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES, COINCIDENT WITH THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE

RIDGE ALOFT, BUT WHICH WILL ERODE AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS

OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING CHRISTMAS DAY. THE

LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES HAVE PLACED QUITE A BIT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE

STRENGTH OF THE OVERALL UPPER LOW AND TWO SMALL SCALE WAVES IN THE

CIRCULATION, WHICH ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO ITS SUPPORT OF LAKE

FORCING IN OUR AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT WEAK LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW

TO ALLOW LAKE AGGREGATE SURFACE TROUGH AND MAIN LAKE EFFECT BAND

FORMATION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE PASSAGE OF THE

SMALLER SCALE UPPER WAVES, AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION, WILL

THEN VEER THE FLOW ENOUGH TO PULL MAIN BANDS INLAND AND/OR HELP

EVOLVE THE PATTERN INTO MULTIPLE BANDS MOVING WELL INLAND LATER

CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THE PEAK OF THE EVENT MAY

WELL BE SUNDAY WHEN THE SECOND OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATES THROUGH

THE REGION PROVIDING A BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE AND HIGHER

CONVECTIVE DEPTH IN THE PRESENCE OF LAKE TO 850MB DELTA-T NEAR

18C. IT IS A BIT EARLY TO GET TOO DETAILED WITH THE FORECAST AT

THAT TIME RANGE DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER MODEL

RUNS BUT GENERALLY EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION

THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD OVER MUCH OF SE MICHIGAN EAST AND NORTH

OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR WITH A COUPLE INCHES PER 12 HOURS

POSSIBLE IN THE THUMB COUNTIES DEPENDING ON THE FINER DETAILS OF

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THIS WILL BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW

FORECAST CYCLES.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

Late, but...

12z...

MKE:

ECMWF: 0.11"

GFS: 0.29"

NAM: 0.15"

GGEM: 0.10-0.25"

UGN:

ECMWF: 0.20"

GFS: 0.30"

NAM: 0.29"

GGEM: About 0.25"

ORD:

ECMWF: 0.29"

GFS: 0.34"

NAM: 0.22"

GGEM: 0.25-0.50"

GYY:

ECMWF: 0.20"

GFS: 0.32"

NAM: 0.41"

GGEM: 0.50-0.75"

VPZ:

ECMWF: 0.16"

GFS: 0.27"

NAM: 0.26"

GGEM: 0.50-0.75"

DTW:

ECMWF: 0.08"

GFS: 0.10"

NAM: 0.06"

GGEM: 0.01-0.10"

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Posted

So here are my current thoughts in map form. This is only LES and doesn't factor in the synoptic snow. In the area bounded by light blue I would expect snow showers with generally minor accumulations. In the darker blue I would expect moderate accumulations. Purple is 6+ and the area in black is where I think the jackpot may end up. May be a tad too liberal with the outer zone but didn't pay as much attention there.

post-14-0-28357500-1293146069.jpg

Backyard bias. :whistle:

j/k. Any thoughts/changes after seeing the 0z NAM? Not that you'd make a decision based solely off the NAM, but just wondering. :)

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