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Central PA - Early/Mid December 2016


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Just waking up? Euro is SIGNIFICANTLY different than all the runs yesterday. Much weaker and very GFS-like now. Very interesting. The trough kicks negatively a few hours too slow, and the storm never runs up the coast. Instead, it just glides to the ENE quickly like the GFS had been showing. Very interesting developments and not good if you're looking for big snows. 

 

We'll see what the ensembles say. If there's any consolation, the CMC is a big hit for the SE half of PA, especially along I-81. RPM (our in-house model) is similar to the CMC...in fact, it's so amped up that it brings mixing to Lancaster, Berks, & Chester counties. 

 

Lots of disagreement on the models that will probably be ironed out today.

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I have to say that my respect for Bernie Rayno is steadily increasing with each storm this winter. I watched his afternoon video yesterday, and he didn't seem completely sold on the western extent of the storm, despite what the non-US globals were showing.

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  On 3/18/2016 at 6:31 PM, Wmsptwx said:

Euro looks bad, but we gets 60s next week so I could care less about a small amount of slop.

 

100% agree. I was all in if we were going to get a 6" plus storm. But with the latest trends I'd be just as happy if it all stayed south of the MD line....

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  On 3/16/2016 at 12:53 PM, maytownpawx said:

Looks like the proverbial swing and a miss. 

Well you know what they say about first instincts. Perhaps I should have stayed the course?

 

Horst said that while southern Lanco might get brushed with light snow tomorrow night, there will be a sharp northern edge and northern areas may see nada. 

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  On 3/19/2016 at 2:15 PM, canderson said:

Euro has lost all season since the upgrade. It's flat-out sucked.

The new Euro skill scores are by far the best.

Also, the UKMET ranks ahead of the GFS.

Yesterday at 12z, the UKMET still had the LSV

with almost .75 precip, with a low track close to the coast.

The EPS on Thursday increased mean amounts & many members

Had great low tracks. We were 3 days out & it looked so good for a late

season moderate to heavy snow event.

Outside of the blizzard, it's been a frustrating season for winter storms.

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  On 3/19/2016 at 2:41 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

The new Euro skill scores are by far the best.

Also, the UKMET ranks ahead of the GFS.

Yesterday at 12z, the UKMET still had the LSV

with almost .75 precip, with a low track close to the coast.

The EPS on Thursday increased mean amounts & many members

Had great low tracks. We were 3 days out & it looked so good for a late

season moderate to heavy snow event.

Outside of the blizzard, it's been a frustrating season for winter storms.

And some of us can't even lean on that. :( This winter was pretty much my personal worst ever.

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  On 3/20/2016 at 4:53 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

Sorry man. My Bad.

I would be very upset too if I got no snow,

While 90 miles to my south got their biggest snowstorm ever.

It's just a shame that we didn't get 1 good storm that could

have made most of us in here happy.

There's always next year...

Tbh, I was pretty pumped you guys did, great group of posters and I felt the vibes living vicariously. I wish I could get more of you into severe!!

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