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Central PA - Early/Mid December 2016


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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Sleet with a few flakes mixed in here in Marysville. This a a let down to already have sleet. I thought we would get at least an inch or 2 of snow before the mix to ice, but it was not meant to be this time.

Have to be careful with those snow maps. Those algorithms aren't the greatest in a changing pType situation...noticed yesterday AM that the GFS snowmaps via WxBell & TropicalTidbits were showing snow accumulating on the snow maps, but the soundings for those times indicated a sleet profile. As soon as I saw that, I cut back our expected totals knowing that the snow maps would be misleading. 

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I currently am at 24 with a DP of 20 with snow and sleet.  What a waste of what once was deep arctic air.  A retreating high is a sloppy mess.  A building high is a snowstorm.  I'm very concerned about a serious ice storm here today as the surface has been in a hard freeze condition for a couple of days and the very low sun angle will have minimal impact in any insolation that could help scour the cold at the surface.  This is a classic set-up with overrunning and not real strong low pressure to generate any pressure gradient sufficient to mix the atmosphere to above freezing.  The center of low pressure is out in OK and MO...I'm hoping I'm wrong, but very concerned!

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Light to moderate snow here with a temp of 21 degrees. It's all snow, but it's a "noisy" snow as I can hear it hitting whatever surface it lands on. Without actually measuring, I'd say were at about 3/4 inch already here.

For any of you who want it really cold, Sunday night into Monday morning I'm going to spending the night near Angola, Indiana making my way to Chicago. While the original forecast low for Monday morning has moderated a bit from the -14 it was showing yesterday, the NWS is still saying it could be -6 there when I wake up in the morning... :shiver:

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Sleet Frz rain mix all the way up here, concerning with surface temp at 19. 

Surprising the 850 temps are fairly cold. Currently 21 @ the house.

Maybe an inch and sleeting. I looked at the radar in the middle of the night and there appeared to be a lot of dry slotting.

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Temp now rising, and up to 26 with a mixture of sleet and freezing rain.  Looks like we had maybe a few tenths of an inch of snow at best on my board.

Weather Bell needs to work on their algorithms some more.  It really never looked like there could be much snow from this.  Like I said last night and the night before that, Pivotal's maps clearly showed freezing rain would be the predominant precip type around central PA, especially the southern half of the state, for the first half of this event.  Looks like they will be right.

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About 3/4" sleet encased in ice was what we got here this morning. Trees have some ice but pretty run of the mill, maybe a tenth of ZR. I figured the snow aspect of this storm was going to underachieve when modeling started concentrating the preceding snow shield in the midwest and lakes region to upstate NY the last couple days. The virga blizzard that we got most of the overnight last night further sealed that. 

As for the temperature aspect, that's playing out as I anticipated. Temp at KJST (2200ft) is 46ºF. It is barely 30ºF here (1200ft) in the deep valley just off the Allegheny front and most temp obs east of the Alleghenies are at or within a couple degrees of freezing. Fortunately there is not much precip around, which was something I mentioned about yesterday with modeling showing a weakness in QPF..but there are some patchy showers that are here and there and may deliver some additional icing in spots. Temps will slowly rise today in central/eastern Penn.. but as I alluded to a couple days ago.. it probably won't be until later this evening when the precipitation associated with the frontal passage arrives and the warm air finally mixes down into the valleys more effectively.  

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surprised at how resilient the "slushpack is here in Akron.  34 deg and side roads still largely covered w/ a decent amount of slush.  I know overnight will likely scour out the cold, but we might have an outside chance at holiding some of this through tomorrows warm up.

Liking that the warm up sounds muted around xmas and beyond.  Up and down like weve been still beats last years weather.

Nut

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