canderson Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 The Susquehanna has whitecaps - don't see that very often! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Higher peak wind gust here today than yesterday. Yesterday's peak was 35.8 mph; today, so far 36.9 mph at 11:10am. This cold is crazy. Such a shock to go from 70 to 35 and then be bombarded for nearly 2 days straight with these winds! Brrrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Checking the 3 day KMDT observation winds - wow. The don't have a gust higher than 46 mph but look at how long we've had sustained over 30 and the number of gusts over 40. Very unusually. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMDT.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Apparently this morning the wind caused a train crossing the Rockville Bridge just north of HBG over the river had a few cars get blown off the track by the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Sorry for the repeated posts haha. KMDT's highest wind gust during this wind storm (to date) happened shortly after noon today - 54 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Mount Penn in Reading is on fire tonight. It's massive apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Gotta say I dont remember wind gusts like we've had over the past two days often. My little focus was tossed around like a toy at times cant imagine how the big rigs were dealing. If this is the setup for our winter its gonna be...fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 16 hours ago, canderson said: Apparently this morning the wind caused a train crossing the Rockville Bridge just north of HBG over the river had a few cars get blown off the track by the wind. Saw that. Don't know why NS thinks it's okay to leave cars on the bridge overnight during high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 incredible snow totals from upstate NY, WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: incredible snow totals from upstate NY, WOW. Yes indeed. The Upstate NY thread was a good read the last few days. Their 40 & 50 inch amounts put our 30 inch blizzard last year to shame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 23, 2016 Author Share Posted November 23, 2016 Initial precip arriving here in mixed form surprisingly (ice pellets mixed in with some rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Sleet here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hopefully we will have a winter to be thankful for this season ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Hi everyone! Happy Thanksgiving. There was still snow on the ground on 81 north of Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 We don't cool down here in Baltimore County nearly as well as York County does. Some of the discrepancies between BWI, THV and MDW are amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 It's only 9 am and the 29th is already the wettest day of the month here in Harrisburg - and only a few hundredths of an inch from reaching top 5 over the last 3 months really shows how bad we need this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, djr5001 said: It's only 9 am and the 29th is already the wettest day of the month here in Harrisburg - and only a few hundredths of an inch from reaching top 5 over the last 3 months really shows how bad we need this!! It has been incredibly dry. 2 recent close calls up on Bella Vista and Tower roads with wild fires. I was a little nervous yesterday when the Hunters took the woods. So yeah, i'll take this dumping were getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 58 minutes ago, sauss06 said: It has been incredibly dry. 2 recent close calls up on Bella Vista and Tower roads with wild fires. I was a little nervous yesterday when the Hunters took the woods. So yeah, i'll take this dumping were getting. Yea and after seeing what was happening in Gatlinburg, Tennessee last night I would hate to see something like that anywhere around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 The last few runs of the EPS have been advertising a cold pattern developing in the east beginning next week & continuing until the end of the run. The 12z run of the EPS today was the best run so far this late fall/early winter season. Through day 15, it showed 3-5 inches of snow in the LSV & 6-8 inches near the I-80 & I-99 regions. Around 35 of the 51 EPS members had more than 2 inches of snow across all of Central PA. Several of the individual members produced some nice hits of 6 -10 inches. Hopefully we can get the winter party started about 6 weeks earlier than last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The last few runs of the EPS have been advertising a cold pattern developing in the east beginning next week & continuing until the end of the run. The 12z run of the EPS today was the best run so far this late fall/early winter season. Through day 15, it showed 3-5 inches of snow in the LSV & 6-8 inches near the I-80 & I-99 regions. Around 35 of the 51 EPS members had more than 2 inches of snow across all of Central PA. Several of the individual members produced some nice hits of 6 -10 inches. Hopefully we can get the winter party started about 6 weeks earlier than last year! Lets hope so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 22 hours ago, sauss06 said: It has been incredibly dry. 2 recent close calls up on Bella Vista and Tower roads with wild fires. I was a little nervous yesterday when the Hunters took the woods. So yeah, i'll take this dumping were getting. I had 1.15" over here in Tamaqua yesterday. Looking at the incoming slug of precipitation, I have no doubt we'll come close to, or equal, that amount today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 18 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The last few runs of the EPS have been advertising a cold pattern developing in the east beginning next week & continuing until the end of the run. The 12z run of the EPS today was the best run so far this late fall/early winter season. Through day 15, it showed 3-5 inches of snow in the LSV & 6-8 inches near the I-80 & I-99 regions. Around 35 of the 51 EPS members had more than 2 inches of snow across all of Central PA. Several of the individual members produced some nice hits of 6 -10 inches. Hopefully we can get the winter party started about 6 weeks earlier than last year! We are def starting to see some of the more truly cold air being introduced to our side of the pole in the computer models as we get into next week, which was something that was lacking most of the month with the eastern European and specifically northern Asian continents (Siberia) seeing the brunt of it. With that said, we appear to remain quite vulnerable to cutters through at least next week as the PNA drops significantly negative and focuses a lot of the initial cold air dump into the western half of the US. The corresponding eastern ridging that gets built will likely send one or two systems to the lakes next week with the latter currently being depicted on both the GFS/Euro as an especially strong one that finally brings the cold air to the east. We shall see if that gives us a reset pattern that we need to start seeing consistent winter weather. In the meantime, next week looks more like a transitional week where we might not see the cold come in until later in the week..although we don't look overly warm (maybe somewhat above average). It seems like we have been in a perpetual eastern ridge this fall.. and it may be one of those things that takes some time to completely transition from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 Despite my aforementioned post last night about us being vulnerable to cutters next week, there's an interesting setup starting to show up on the model suite for the first progged system next week near the Tuesday-Tuesday night timeframe. This southern stream system is progged to lift a primary up some of the Mississippi into the Ohio Valley to Michigan but the GFS,Euro, and Canadian have all been exhibiting secondary development off the Carolina/VA coast. The result is a slug of precipitation lifting up into PA where the secondary low would appear to be strong enough while there's just barely enough of a high up north to maintain a marginal airmass for a potential snowfall. This is especially evident on the 12z European, where it sends enough QPF into the central counties for a high end advisory type snowfall. I also saw it on last night's run, where there was just enough of a secondary influence to hold in marginal snow temps and thicknesses. The Canadian breaks up the precip between the two lows making for a much lighter affair. The GFS (using 18z) has more emphasis on the primary and is a bit stronger overall, but still appears to possibly start the event as snow in the central counties (esp N Central). Something to keep an eye on. This is ahead of the second system that late next week will likely usher in much more significant cold air with a very strong frontal passage... and this is something models have been in pretty good agreement with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 10 years ago today... http://www.weather.gov/bgm/pastSevereDecember012006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 I feel like I'm talking to myself in here haha. The European continues to be the most supportive with regards to Tuesday evening potentially being our first widespread accumulating snow of the season in the central counties. The secondary coastal development and the somewhat weak southerly flow aloft from the weakening primary holds in an airmass that in the Euro's case is just enough down the column to support snow, despite 1000-500 thicknesses that are somewhat above the traditional benchmark values (between 540-546). The result is a 2-6" wet snowfall across a pretty sizable part of PA (including Harrisburg), with the more elevated JST/AOO/UNV/Clearfield/Bradford region seeing the axis of heaviest snowfall. The GFS continues to be just a bit warmer, it doesn't collapse the 546 line (which I'm using as more of a benchmark in this particular setup) below PA like the Euro does. It instead keeps it near the PA-NY border but it still manages to target the north central with 1-3". The Canadian has been a bit further southeast with the secondary low development, and thus has been keeping precip more in southern PA but it shows the interior central with snow. I would say for right now the best compromise would be to suggest that the north central counties are most likely to see accumulating snow from this setup, with perhaps some potential down the I-99 and Rt 219 corridors. But the Euro has been pretty consistent on the more widespread snowfall, so certainly not to be overlooked. I've noticed that CTP has been thinking mainly rain with this. 108hr Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Your not alone mag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I'm in full out lurk mode too....keep postin buddy. Just waiting to get the all clear. Looks like stepping down w mid Dec starting to sound wintryish. Long range sounds like a crap shoot at best. What would be your guess as we head into met winter? Seeing conflicting signals w/ NAO EPO PNA. NAO trending neg is a nice change, but that pig SE ridge seems like its going nowhere fast and oozes cutter until it takes hold (or if it does). Cansips has me heading back to the cave, but the Euro weeklies sound decent, so I guess we run w/ the King....until something better shows up for me to do my weenie worship dance to. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Well thank goodness by Tuesday night I'll likely be near Chicago and well west of any snow that falls in PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1.) MAG- please keep posting. I look forward to reading them each day, even if I don't have the chance to post. 2.) The next 2 weeks look cold, & those of us that have not seen more than a T of snow, should get on the board. 3.) The EPS & GEFS are in good agreement for the next 15 days. Both ensemble models show 4-6 inches of snow from south to north in the LSV. The I-99 & I-80 region get around 8-10 inches of snow on both of these models. 4.) I have a feeling that this forum will be very busy over the next 2 weeks ! Let's do this ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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