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Central PA - Early/Mid December 2016

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Well, C-PA got the chilly weekend that was more evident over a week ago when I last posted but it ended up being a good bit less pronounced and more of an in and out ordeal without any LES. As we look ahead to this coming weekend, we see a major trough dropping into the northeastern US and closing off on the models. The European is especially interesting with a pretty strong frontal passage and potential for an inverted trough scenario with the negatively tilted trough being progged. Ends up developing a fairly deep low that is forced to turn into interior New England. The result is a significant snowstorm in a lot of upstate NY (northern and NE PA involved too) with what would likely be a pretty prolific lake response from Ontario in central NY. The GFS is similar but not as amplified as the Euro. Either way a strong LES response into PA is implied with the strong NW flow and sufficiently cold air. I say sufficiently because the strength of the cold air mass is not particularly frigid for the latter half of November. We still don't have truly cold stuff on our side of the globe yet, so cold air masses that do traverse our area will be a wake-up call, but probably not of the variety with major - temp departures. Time-frame of this potential is roughly in the 5-7 day range attm.

NAO/AO/EPO look to be turning negative, and MJO is progged to generally run phase 8-1-2 (colder NEUS phases during OND and NDJ). Could be the start of a fundamental shift in the overall regime towards more of a winter pattern.. the possible deep system next week would be a good catalyst. 

4indices.png

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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Thx for the update Mag.  Yeah the early signs of a shift started showing up over the weekend, and a step down logic seems sensible, as you stated, no major cold on our side to really lock in....yet ;).  I think many of us are ok w/ normal climo....

 

looks like the first step comes just in time for the bear hunters, as Friday has mid 60's to the northern tier, with the front coming through Saturday. 

Hunting in T shirts.....sucks.  Been there...did that.

Nut

 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

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The 12z Euro had 3-6 inches of snow for the LSV, with 5 inches at MDT. It showed amounts closer to 12 inches back toward State College & Altoona. The 12z Canadian had around 1-3 inches in the LSV & around 6 inches back toward State College & Altoona. The GFS is not yet onboard. Even if this doesn't pan out, it would be a win to get snow in the air or a little measurable on the board before Thanksgiving!

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sauss06

sauss06

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13 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

Should us LSV peeps start griping about getting shafted? :P

In all seriousness, let the tracking commence! 

yeah, lets protest on the steps of the nws :D

13 hours ago, canderson said:

I don't want any storm less than 30". /eskimojoe

i honestly lol'd :whistle:

 

It looks to warm to me for us the LSV, but as Canderson said, i think West and North has a pretty decent shot at snow. Johnstown, the Laurels all out through there i think could get a couple inches. Just in time for the annual take your gun for a walk day. 

edit- maybe we do get some flakes Sunday late

 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

Are we going to do another snowfall contest like Millvillewx did in '15?

I'm in for sure. I don't believe I even got the final tallies last winter after everything that happened to me back end of winter and through Summer. If someone else wants to run it, I'd be down. I could do it again as well. Have to make sure we have cities that we can easily pluck snowfall data from. Johnstown was lacking snowfall data last year. 

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sauss06

sauss06

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20 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'm in for sure. I don't believe I even got the final tallies last winter after everything that happened to me back end of winter and through Summer. If someone else wants to run it, I'd be down. I could do it again as well. Have to make sure we have cities that we can easily pluck snowfall data from. Johnstown was lacking snowfall data last year. 

why dont you do it just like last year using the same exact places, keep it simple. 

 

You can pay the winner $1000 like you did last year :whistle:

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2001kx

2001kx

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Posted
Winter Weather Advisory
Weather Updated: Nov 18 1:59PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
en-US WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4PM EST SAT UNTIL 7PM EST SUN ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE APPROXIMATE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING SUNDAY EVENING. * TIMING...FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL MAKE MANY ROADS SNOW COVERED AND HAZARDOUS. THE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW, AND CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCING THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES. SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER INTERRUPTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE WIND GUSTS. * WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...SHARPLY FALLING INTO THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE PENNSYLVANIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON DRIVING CONDITIONS AND TO TAKE IT SLOW IN SNOW AND ICE. REVIEW WINTER WEATHER SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION AT NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/WINTER AND GO.USA.GOV/CWTC5. &&
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MAG5035

MAG5035

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We're certainly going to be delivered one heck of a wake-up call tomorrow after having what is likely to be the warmest day until next year today. Depending on how much of a precip shield we have as this front crashes through PA, we might see a changeover and period of snow... specifically in the west and north-central/NE. It's been kind of an anafrontal look on the models, with the cold air rushing in at lower levels. Thus a precip shield associated with the frontal passage would likely feature most precip behind the actual front, inviting the changeover potential. 

Regardless, a healthy LES/upslope regime looks to setup Sat night into Sunday. Probably one of the better early season setups I've seen the last couple winters for the Laurels. Should be of the fairly widespread multi-band variety. Not sure we get enough of an aligned flow for Huron connection and a stronger band, but coverage should be widespread. Daytime heating on Sunday should provide ample instability for widespread snow showers to pop up into the rest of the central mountains and Sus Valley. CTP's 3-6 call and advisory counties look pretty good, and PIT should be following suit aligning their counties with advisories (the current counties with an HWO). I see potential for some of the higher parts of the Laurels to see 6"+, though it might not be enough to be meet 6"/12hr or 8"/24hr warning criteria. I expect a coating to 2 inches along and west of I-99 off of the Allegheny front (Altoona region) and T-1" just to the east/southeast in places like Bedford, State College, Huntingdon. Some of the snow showers that sneak all the way into the Sus Valley could drop brief dustings of snow. 

We moderate some after Monday but only back to a much more seasonable regime. There is a potential for the the next system to be around Thanksgiving, right now it looks like mainly rain but temps are kinda marginal. 

Edit to add CTP latest snowfall map:

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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9 hours ago, sauss06 said:

why dont you do it just like last year using the same exact places, keep it simple. 

 

You can pay the winner $1000 like you did last year :whistle:

Okay, who let the cat out of the bag? :lol:

 

All jokes aside, we can definitely do the same sites as last year minus Johnstown. I can certainly run it again. I'll set something up similar to last year and run it again. I won't start anything again until December 15th to get people time to make predictions. 

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skiier04

skiier04

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2 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

I did see a planar crystal melting on my jacket so there's at least some decent vapor growth aloft.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 

Kind of surprised by how quickly things turned wintry. I'm prepared with some good dark beer though. Ready for a big PSU win and maybe a coating of snow by tomorrow?

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