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Central PA - Early/Mid December 2016


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We might have 1 more potential snow storm to track. All of the major models show a storm late next weekend or early next week. The GFS & Canadian have a storm along the coast . The Euro takes a storm to the lower lakes, but has a secondary low off the mid atlantic coast. All 3 models bring accumulating snow to CTP. The GFS & Canadian hit the LSV good, while the Euro hits State College & Altoona area. The major teleconnections look to cooperate for this few day window. It would be fun to track 1 more this year. Let's see how this trends the next few days .

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Todays Euro had at least a few inches for everyone in PA for that potential storm, and a swath of quite significant snow (12+)  running up through far eastern PA into eastern NY state and beyond. GFS well east at the moment, but you can see the potential. Either way it's looking pretty chilly for a time starting this weekend. 

 

We usually do end up paying for early March heat waves in some fashion. 

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Welcome back everyone!

Looks like 1 more to track !

EPS mean & EPS control look great for CTP.

Many of the ensemble members take a great track, & the control is very nice, especially for the LSV. The Ensemble mean snow was about 3-5 inches CTP region wide. The control run had about 10 inches in the LSV & about 6 inches further north & west in the region.

12z trends were very good today for late season snow!

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Pretty interesting depiction of the Sunday-Monday storm on the 00z Euro last night. Control run pastes eastern PA with 6-12", centered over I-95. Lower amounts west, but meaningful snow gets back into central PA. Euro EPS members and mean are supportive of the control too. GFS still weaker/faster/farther east, but WPC model disco isn't buying what the GFS is selling and is prefering a non NCEP blend (i.e. closer track to the coast). 

 

If the Euro is correct, the timing would be absolutely perfect for accumulating snow (late Sunday overnight into Monday), with some impressively cold temps on the tail end which would result in fairly decent ratios for March. 

 

And we're only 3-4 days out now...almost lock down range. 

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I have to add that the H5 depiction on the Euro looks really good for PA, especially eastern.

blah!!! In total spring mode but if winter wants to return for two days then if might as well return with a bang. The prospect of possible or near double digit snow totals will pull me back in. I'm in!
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blah!!! In total spring mode but if winter wants to return for two days then if might as well return with a bang. The prospect of possible or near double digit snow totals will pull me back in. I'm in!

 

Same here. If we can get a good accumulation, than I'm in as well. Otherwise, I'd rather mow my lawn than shovel slop. Thanks AllWeather for the update!

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Same here. If we can get a good accumulation, than I'm in as well. Otherwise, I'd rather mow my lawn than shovel slop. Thanks AllWeather for the update!

 

Is that you....

 

Am I reading correctly?  

 

Your fever must be quite high.  Sorry to hear that and hope your fever drops soon!!  :tomato:

 

You know you'll miss me soon enough :rolleyes:

 

Nut

 

Edit....just looked at the free Euro from overnight and 997 of Norfolk to 969 in the Gulf of Main....wowzers!!

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Is that you....

 

Am I reading correctly?  

 

Your fever must be quite high.  Sorry to hear that and hope your fever drops soon!!  :tomato:

 

You know you'll miss me soon enough :rolleyes:

 

Nut

 

:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

 

Yes...It's me! I broke my big toe so I'm off work at the moment, so I don't care if it snows as I don't have to navigate 70 foot of tractor trailer through it. Other than that, even though I love warm temperatures and summer weather, I'm still a sucker for the chase, AND if we can get a major storm, then I'm usually in!

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