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Central PA - Early/Mid December 2016


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20 minutes ago, canderson said:

That's right! My wife is the APSCUF dir of comm. They're on the right side - the state's not even negotiating.

Hopefully soon they will and the strike will end.

I had heard that. I hope it ends soon too. My daughter just changed her one major from Education to Communication. 

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2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

I had heard that. I hope it ends soon too. My daughter just changed her one major from Education to Communication. 

It's been ridiculous how the state is behaving right now. I know all my friends still in school are picketing with the professors if they are engaging. I hope they come to an agreement soon or there will be a lot of anxious students and seriously PO'd parents who saved up this money for their kids to get an education. 

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On 10/19/2016 at 6:43 AM, sauss06 said:

I hit 86 as well. it was still 75 at 11pm coming home from the John Cougar show last night. Broke a 100 year old record yesterday, can we break another today?

Well, we did down here at least. 86 officially was the high. Today I got to 80, not sure what the official number was though. 

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2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

yes sir, we also broke another 100 year old record. Im looking forward to this weekends cool down!

Yes, me too. I'm leaving for Pittsburgh tomorrow around noon and coming home Monday. Steelers-Pats game on Sunday. We go out once every year. My son is not happy about Big Ben...I said, hey, at least you know going in it probably won't be pretty. 

Pretty crazy weather going on in the central mountains right now. That's a lot of water. 

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58 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Yes, me too. I'm leaving for Pittsburgh tomorrow around noon and coming home Monday. Steelers-Pats game on Sunday. We go out once every year. My son is not happy about Big Ben...I said, hey, at least you know going in it probably won't be pretty. 

Pretty crazy weather going on in the central mountains right now. That's a lot of water. 

I was reading reports from over night, it was insane what was going on. And it looks like they're going to get smacked around again..

 

Enjoy the trip. We were out for the KC game, we had a blast. We tried to get in Bettis place but was 3 hour wait. Went next door to tilted Kilt. 

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Doppler estimated rainfall from overnight and so far today... Green shading is in excessive of approx 4", Purples are 5-6"+. Blue is in excess of 7".

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The doppler estimates primarily from the training storms overnight are pretty staggering in parts of Centre/Clinton/Lycoming counties. One excessive area just missed the State College area but ran up Bald Eagle Valley including smaller towns like Howard, Milesburg, and Beech Creek. Milesburg and Howard had been dealing with evacuations and water rescues overnight. A second area of excessive rains then started from I-80 near Loganton and ran up through Jersey Shore and Williamsport. 4-7+ inch estimates are pretty common in these two areas. Most of it fell in a few hours overnight last night, which easily exceeded even what had been high flash flood guidance numbers in that region of PA as the north-central part of the state was still in a moderate drought as of the 18th. 

The leading edge of additional rain and storms is moving into those affected areas now and could cause additional issues. The storms on the leading edge moved through here a bit ago and once again had intense rainfall, so I'm a bit concerned for that. Here are some FFG values as of this morning, 1 and 3hr. You can see that the north-central cannot take very much additional rain.

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Nice squall line setting up to my west as I type this, so it "could" get a bit interesting here in a little bit. As for the heat this past week, I had 84 on Tuesday and 82 on Wednesday. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday was crazy. Up in the higher elevations (Hazleton) it was still 72 at 4:00am. It was like a sultry July night, not a mid October one!

I almost wish I'd have had a Tioga run today like I get on many Fridays. I'd have seen some interesting stuff on my way up there...

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3 hours ago, sauss06 said:

I was reading reports from over night, it was insane what was going on. And it looks like they're going to get smacked around again..

 

Enjoy the trip. We were out for the KC game, we had a blast. We tried to get in Bettis place but was 3 hour wait. Went next door to tilted Kilt. 

I was at that game as well ;)

 

Not sure how accurate my rain gauge is but it shows 5.6" here

 

 

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Looks like we'll be getting some pretty cold temps around the region tonight and into Wednesday morning. Let's play a mini game. What is everyone's prediction of temperatures at MDT and THV? Both have their own intricacies, so I'm curious to see what others think. Quite the high building to the north, so temps could surprise.

 

I'm going with:

MDT: 31

THV: 27

 

Anyone else care to join? 

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1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Looks like we'll be getting some pretty cold temps around the region tonight and into Wednesday morning. Let's play a mini game. What is everyone's prediction of temperatures at MDT and THV? Both have their own intricacies, so I'm curious to see what others think. Quite the high building to the north, so temps could surprise.

 

I'm going with:

MDT: 31

THV: 27

 

Anyone else care to join? 

MDT- 34

THV-  30

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That robust building high may also assist in potentially giving far north-central and NE PA their first wintry precip of the season as the high retreats in advance of the approaching system from the midwest tomorrow night into Thursday. Given the progged track over Lake Erie and Ontario, the potential period for wintry precip would be brief.. with a low threat of what would be minor accumulations. What is most likely is a rain/snow or rain/sleet mix quickly transitioning to rain by Thursday morning. As far as any bigger PA cities that see this, likely the US 6 corridor starting from around Bradford and especially Wellsboro and Mansfield. Scranton *may* be cold enough but I think this threat will be north and northeast of Williamsport and Scranton/WB. BGM and eastern upstate NY have more potential for a longer period of snow and the Catskills and especially Adirondacks look to have their first legit snowfall of the year. 

 

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Sorry for the delay. Had one hell of a busy morning at work. Just a recap for the two site temps, THV dipped below guidance and forecast per the usual in this setup. Min temp of 25 was achieved thanks to amazing radiational cooling night. MDT of course was warmer thanks to light winds that stuck around in the higher elevation. Min temp of 33 was achieved. Great job by pasnownut nailing the low at MDT. We all missed THV too high, which is usually the case for this site. It's amazing how fast they can cool on a setup like this. Heck, the main high wasn't even over them haha. 

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