Cashtown_Coop Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 8am amounts Cashtown 2.72" Fairfield 2.85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 3 hours ago, canderson said: I had about .65" when I left the house this morning at 8:25 a.m. Doubt we get near the 2.1" I was predicting. you very well may be right. its not like i was expecting it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1.3" so far. I think canderson's 2.1" for MDT might end up being very, very close. We'll see what comes later today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 43 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: 1.3" so far. I think canderson's 2.1" for MDT might end up being very, very close. We'll see what comes later today and tonight. It hasn't rained here for three hours, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 17 minutes ago, canderson said: It hasn't rained here for three hours, at least. 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: 1.3" so far. I think canderson's 2.1" for MDT might end up being very, very close. We'll see what comes later today and tonight. Its has mostly just been misty here in Harrisburg. I was looking at rainfall reports from Cumberland County and the higher numbers seem to be in the western part of the County. But Mikes right, later today/night we could get into the heavy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 A large area of rain is marching northward into extreme southeastern PA right now...sure looks like the current trajectory is a miss wide right for most of us. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Buuuuust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 A large area of rain is marching northward into extreme southeastern PA right now...sure looks like the current trajectory is a miss wide right for most of us. I guess we'll see. Entering Lancaster now.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 11 hours ago, Superstorm said: Entering Lancaster now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Indeed. We got a good soaking overnight! 1.9" for the event thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: Indeed. We got a good soaking overnight! 1.9" for the event thus far. it went all around us. We had rain overnight, but not much. I need it to not rain Tomorrow morning, can anyone make that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: it went all around us. We had rain overnight, but not much. I need it to not rain Tomorrow morning, can anyone make that happen? I can try Anyway, didn't fully live up to its billing down here. Around 2.5-3" compared to the forecasted 6". Parents in Delaware got rocked though. Around 8" yesterday. That easterly fetch was no joke. I love the cooler weather though. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 We got probably half as much as expected around here (between 1-2").. a beneficial rainfall but it didn't get much response from the local rivers/streams. The heavier rains ended up setting up on either side of C-PA for most of the evening yesterday. Attention likely shifts toward Hurricane Matthew next week as it's progged to turn NW/N out of the Caribbean and track into the Bahamas. So far it's mainly modeled to stay just off the East Coast and eventually turn away but it's pretty close.. and there is several days for this to undoubtedly change. Given the track and the fact that it's already currently going through a rapid intensification phase, this could end up being a very strong hurricane on either side of it's potential impact with Cuba. It will be tracking through some of the best TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) fields in the Atlantic basin. Speed of the system will be important, as a faster system will get in front of a frontal system progged for later next week and potentially allow for the storm to come in closer and/or impact the East Coast.. along with potential rainfall from interacting with the frontal system. Lots of moving parts with respect to figuring out where Matthew eventually goes, but something to keep an eye on next week along the Eastern Seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 A lovely fall day today - misty, breezy, low 60s. mmmmmmhmmmmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Today's 12z GFS op (backed up by the ensembles) is an ugly look for about the entire eastern seaboard...takes the center of Matthew and essentially traces the shoreline from the NC/SC line all the way up until it runs right through southern New England. This solution also gets at least the eastern half of Penn into some decent rains associated directly with the western half of the storm as well as some frontal interaction. It's a pretty nasty solution. Euro/Canadian has been maintaining an OTS solution (12z Euro comes much closer to coast) making for a bit of a model situation ala Hurricane Joaquin. Given ridging progged in the northern Atlantic, the storm probably doesn't fully curve away even if it does miss the East Coast. The Euro has another weak system that develops to Matthew's east/northeast that might help pull it away from the coast in that scenario. But either way with the ridging, the storm is probably going to get pulled poleward in response to the approaching trough coming from the midwest. Matthew may not directly impact us when all is set and done, but it could help drive a trough and our first actual cold shot of the fall into the area. Much to sort out with this in the coming days and lots of lead time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Some pretty good rains over the past hour or so. Undoubtedly, we've passed the 2" mark here now and still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 38 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Today's 12z GFS op (backed up by the ensembles) is an ugly look for about the entire eastern seaboard...takes the center of Matthew and essentially traces the shoreline from the NC/SC line all the way up until it runs right through southern New England. This solution also gets at least the eastern half of Penn into some decent rains associated directly with the western half of the storm as well as some frontal interaction. It's a pretty nasty solution. Euro/Canadian has been maintaining an OTS solution (12z Euro comes much closer to coast) making for a bit of a model situation ala Hurricane Joaquin. Given ridging progged in the northern Atlantic, the storm probably doesn't fully curve away even if it does miss the East Coast. The Euro has another weak system that develops to Matthew's east/northeast that might help pull it away from the coast in that scenario. But either way with the ridging, the storm is probably going to get pulled poleward in response to the approaching trough coming from the midwest. Matthew may not directly impact us when all is set and done, but it could help drive a trough and our first actual cold shot of the fall into the area. Much to sort out with this in the coming days and lots of lead time yet. I think there is definitely plenty of uncertainty in how the upstream trough amplifies, given that the energy has yet to emerge onshore from the Pacific. Of course there are also inherent uncertainties with any tropical cyclone track at 7 days out, not to mention all of the usual intensity forecast uncertainty. I do agree though that it will be something to watch; the 12z GFS gives us some decent rains associated with an inverted trough extending from Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Going to be interesting to see what effect Matthew has on us. I picked up 1.96" of needed rain yesterday. models are their usual self I see. The latest 01/00Z run of the EC now carries the hurricane well to the northeast of the Bahamas Friday and on a steady course to the Northeast toward Bermuda by the middle of next weekend. With such drastic differences between the GFS/GEFS and the EC 5-7 days out, we`ll continue to play the middle of the road and note just scattered showers with the passage of a more definitive northern stream shortwave and sfc cold front late next week or early next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I think i'll tell my wife and daughter this weekend isn't the best for a girls weekend in Ocean City Maryland anyone have thoughts/opinions on Matthews impact on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 28 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I think i'll tell my wife and daughter this weekend isn't the best for a girls weekend in Ocean City Maryland anyone have thoughts/opinions on Matthews impact on us. I wouldn't bet on much in the way of wind here, at least not with the current guidance basically tracking Matthew along the SE coast. The majority of the precipitation looks to be induced by the mid-level trough over the Great Lakes interacting with the moisture plume associated with Matthew. Of course, if guidance continues to shift the forecast track NW, some of the southeastern parts of our subforum may be impacted more directly by the system. The system will also likely be undergoing ET transition by the time it is closest to us, perhaps spreading out the wind field some and weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 15 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: I wouldn't bet on much in the way of wind here, at least not with the current guidance basically tracking Matthew along the SE coast. The majority of the precipitation looks to be induced by the mid-level trough over the Great Lakes interacting with the moisture plume associated with Matthew. Of course, if guidance continues to shift the forecast track NW, some of the southeastern parts of our subforum may be impacted more directly by the system. The system will also likely be undergoing ET transition by the time it is closest to us, perhaps spreading out the wind field some and weakening. Thank you. I'm suppose to finishing up a roof this weekend, so i don't want to be stripping it off and it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 8 minutes ago, sauss06 said: The cone has definitely shifted west over the past 24 hours. For what it's worth, Eric Horst was saying yesterday there was a 40% chance of some effect from Matthew here, now he's saying about a 70% chance of some rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 supposed to be coming out to the Dillsburg area for a soccer tournament this weekend...will be bedding down in this thread for the week...be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: The cone has definitely shifted west over the past 24 hours. For what it's worth, Eric Horst was saying yesterday there was a 40% chance of some effect from Matthew here, now he's saying about a 70% chance of some rain and wind. fun tracking the next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 15 minutes ago, MacChump said: supposed to be coming out to the Dillsburg area for a soccer tournament this weekend...will be bedding down in this thread for the week...be nice We're nice to everyone so long as they don't go off the deep end with every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: We're nice to everyone so long as they don't go off the deep end with every model run. understood...if i get the urge i'll shoot on over to the NYC thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I really don't think we see much from Matthew. Clouds, a breeze, but I really don't think it's a big issue here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 31 minutes ago, MacChump said: supposed to be coming out to the Dillsburg area for a soccer tournament this weekend...will be bedding down in this thread for the week...be nice This is the best forum on this board. Stick around all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, canderson said: I really don't think we see much from Matthew. Clouds, a breeze, but I really don't think it's a big issue here. great post 1 minute ago, canderson said: This is the best forum on this board. Stick around all winter. even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 50 minutes ago, MacChump said: supposed to be coming out to the Dillsburg area for a soccer tournament this weekend...will be bedding down in this thread for the week...be nice Very cool. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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