Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Hope the skiing was goodThanks being back was my winter goal. I know you know how scary health issues can be. Up for a week again the 20th. Nice 5 days of cold coming up before a couple or 4 days torch. Enough snowmaking to make it decent. Total blues and greens this year and then build back up my strength to rachet it up next year.Impressive miss on this one. Seems like an oppo year. Caveat maybe NAO flipping mid March for NNE peeps. Perhaps some too late spring skiing freshies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Freshies up here would be the best healthcare policy hands down.cheaper too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Nam's coming in weaker which means the precip shield won't get too far N of NYC. We tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 2-4 flakes on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 2-4 flakes on the Nam 4km NAM is about 12-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 4km NAM is about 12-16. Flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Flakes? Parachutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Parachutes 12 km Nam liked the sunday clippah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Flakes? WFWs issued Winter Flake Warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 WFWs issued Winter Flake Warnings Many of those were issued this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Was a good PM AFD Clustering is NW, but it's not like a great deal NW. But I guess every mile counts when it's a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 As often as some of these WFO change them, They don't, But not all offices are bad with there maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Pretty well known which ones change them like a babies diaper, I'm not naming names but it rhymes with fox........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Pretty well known which ones change them like a babies diaper, I'm not naming names but it rhymes with fox........lol I'm always a fan of small changes. And I think the era of chucking these maps out sooner rather than later has worsened the appearance of forecast accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I'm always a fan of small changes. And I think the era of chucking these maps out sooner rather than later has worsened the appearance of forecast accuracy. I totally agree, There is no reason to throw out a map 3-4 days in advance of a pending weather event only to change it after ea impending shift leading up to the event, We have seen the effects on here with some wondering why they are not under a WWA or a WSW because of it not knowing the protocol to when those go live, Same with accumulation ranges, Most expect the higher end of the totals when in fact, They just made it into the lower end of the next range.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Whoops, there she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I know it's the max map but come on a little much no? Yikes, but a hazard of the way we're going about this experiment. BOX says 6 at HYA, WPC says 2. So the logic says add 4 inches to the 90th percentile forecast from WPC at HYA. In this case the 90th percentile forecast is 6", so you add 4 and get 10" for the max. Basically that means BOX is forecasting the 90th percentile snowfall based on a fairly robust model blend of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 This threat is over. Smfh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 4km is a beast for Hazey tough forecast there. Easy forecast for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 AWT..a non event(no flakes) for 95% of SNE and 1-3 at best for Jimmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 AWT..a non event(no flakes) for 95% of SNE and 1-3 at best for JimmyYup, awt when all modeling went east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Yup, awt when all modeling went east.....Too bad the NWS folks don't read and take the professional opinions of trained mets on this forum as viable info for their forecasts. Most knew this outcome was in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 ....Too bad the NWS folks don't read and take the professional opinions of trained mets on this forum as viable info for their forecasts. Most knew this outcome was in the cards.I know, they had to rely on their own training, wth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 WAR fail PNA fail Confluence ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Let's get the confluence out of here and bring on the torch. Pages all turning in unison.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I know, they had to rely on their own training, wth ....Too bad the NWS folks don't read and take the professional opinions of trained mets on this forum as viable info for their forecasts. Most knew this outcome was in the cards. Unless of course the 4km Nam is onto something on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Unless of course the 4km Nam is onto something on the CapeThat would still be a nonevent for 95% of SNE, which is not what their map showed yesterday. I thought they were a bit bullish yesterday with the 2-3" in RI and E Mass outside the Cape but splitting hairs when talking about 1".They adjusted appropriately this morning based on latest guidance, I wouldn't base a forecast on the 4km NAM alone. They still have 3-4" for the Cape. The told-you-so posts when an event breaks one way or the other (not from you) can get frustrating, when at a day 3-5 lead time and the difference between the possibilities being discussed is 50-75 miles, or even worse picking one out of opposing model camps, making definitive statements about the outcome is totally inappropriate if trying to convey the true spectrum of possibilities. Short-term forecasting should be measured like a baseball season - no team is going to go undefeated because it's impossible but the best teams will win the highest percentage of the time. And even in the playoffs, when it really matters (say, tropical cyclones or a potential blizzard when there is a threat to the megalopolis), the best team still isn't going to win every single game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The "I told you so" crowd has really grown in both numbers and frequency the past few years. Not sure what is so exciting about "being first" when it also means you are wrong more frequently. The biggest problem with them as that most of them are dead silent when they bust. Easy to be loud when you guessed correctly. (And that's exactly what a lot of it is...guessing...since you don't actually know of a storm is going to move 50 miles from 3 days out). Anyways despite that, this storm was always a Cape system with the possibility of hitting at least southern and eastern zones if it trended a little further NW which it never did of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The "I told you so" crowd has really grown in both numbers and frequency the past few years. Not sure what is so exciting about "being first" when it also means you are wrong more frequently. The biggest problem with them as that most of them are dead silent when they bust. Easy to be loud when you guessed correctly. (And that's exactly what a lot of it is...guessing...since you don't actually know of a storm is going to move 50 miles from 3 days out). Anyways despite that, this storm was always a Cape system with the possibility of hitting at least southern and eastern zones if it trended a little further NW which it never did of course. I agree. Its very important to own busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 What a beast modeled. Just one of those years where things don't align correctly. One of the more challenging forecast years for humans and modeling alike. Having blizzard conditions and the best paste storm since 97 certainly were highlights in a warm snow free winter. I had memorable storms unlike 12 which ratted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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