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One last Cape Cod Crusher March 4-5


rnaude241

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Was a good PM AFD

DETAILS...

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...

CONTINUING TO MONITOR COASTAL STORM PROJECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY

ABOUT 100NM SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT

THIS TRACK IN THAT CLUSTERING IN THE ENSEMBLES IS MAINLY NW OF THE

MEANS. ALTHOUGH WILL NOT INCLUDE THE GFS THIS RUN AS AN OUTLIER IT

BARES WATCHING. THE OTHER ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE HOW FOR NORTH THE

PRECIP SHIELD AND HEAVIER BANDING /AS THIS IS COLD ENOUGH TO BE

AN ALL SNOW EVENT/. GOOD BLOCKING SETUP WITH SLIGHT SHIFT IN

NAO/AO TOWARD NEGATIVE. WITH THE ARCTIC WAVE LAGGING...AND THE

UPPER LVL CUTOFF N OF THE MAIN LOW TRACK...COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP

TO EARLY FEB SYSTEM IN WHICH HEAVIER BANDS WERE N OF THE PROGS.

INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DUE TO THIS LAG/UPPER LVL WAVE

SETUP. THUS...STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK EXACT NUMBERS...BUT FEEL

THAT S COASTAL REGIONS WILL SEE PLOWABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW WHILE

AREAS FURTHER N WILL SEE A GRADIENT...BUT AT LEAST SOME

MEASURABLE POSSIBLE. UPPING POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS

WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FURTHER N. BUFKIT SUPPORTS DECENT LIFT IN

THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AS FAR NW AS ORANGE/FITCHBURG...BUT IT IS

ENTIRELY POSSIBLE SOME AREAS OF NW SRN NEW ENGLAND SEE LITTLE TO

NO SNOWFALL.

DUE TO MODERATE CERTAINTY OF THE SNOW OVERACHIEVEMENT FOR THE

CAPE/ISLANDS...WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH AS THERE IS

THE POSSIBILITY IT WILL EXCEED 6 INCHES GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS FROM ALL

BUT THE CURRENT ECMWF.

THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH 60-70 KT H92 LLJ OUT OF THE EAST

WHICH COULD CLIP CAPE/ISLANDS AT LEAST AND PROMOTE STRONG GUSTY

WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE SNOW. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO

HIGHLIGHT CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS

HAVING POTENTIAL HIGHEST IMPACTS...WITH SOME POWER OUTAGES NOT OUT

OF THE QUESTION.

TIMING RELATIVELY WELL AGREED UPON...ITS A BIT SLOWER DUE TO THE

INVERTED TROUGH POTENTIAL...BUT MOST SHOULD BE OUT OF ANY

SNOW BANDS BY EARLY MORNING SAT.

HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEK AND THE PASSAGE OF

THIS STORM WELL TO THE S WILL MITIGATE SURGE POTENTIAL.

THEREFORE..CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING ANY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL

FLOODING IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM.

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Those things Will made are called jokes.

I don't think ORH/Will has much to worry about...most can easily see DIT is trying to joke spin it into a meltdown. It's the usual progression. Will makes a couple funny posts about Flip flopping like a fish and then DIT makes a couple sarcastic posts.

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