rnaude241 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Figure I'd start the topic. GFS keeps ticking NW against most other guidance. Few more runs before lock in solution time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 OVERVIEW...02/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME ISSUES REGARDING THE TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT IS PRETTY SPOT ON WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ONLY SAW A HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS WITH A SOLUTION FARTHER NORTH. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE FAVORS A STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH...CANNOT COMPLETELY SHUT THE DOOR ON A MORE NORTHWARD SHIFT. EVEN THE CANADIAN...WHICH WAS THE FARTHEST NORTH THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AS TAKEN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THIS FORECAST. EXPECTING THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM TO BE BETTER SAMPLED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NARROWER GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND GREATER CONFIDENCE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANTICIPATING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The goalposts seem pretty honed in, the GFS being on the NW side but not that far off from other guidance. Since it is another scraper, small differences will seem magnified due to the sensible difference between 0" and 2" for most of SNE. Cape and islands have the highest chance of significant snowfall from the coastal, and I'm expecting a bust for the calls of no more accumulating snow in SNE, although maybe not for my own backyard. CNE/NNE appears out of the game, no surprise there - after all, ptype is expected to be snow and it only rains up there now due to GW reversing the polar magnetic fields and latent heat release from rotting polar bear carcuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Probably a classic gfs run to suck people in only to have it taken away 6 hrs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Last night was likely the nail in the coffin for any big impact on SNE outside of maybe ACK and outer cape. Needed a good bump NW and we didn't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 9z srefs just bumped NW with precip pretty good, 0.5 line north of BOS. As always, maybe a reflection of the usefulness of that product, or lack thereof. Could be a couple crazy members too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Probably a classic gfs run to suck people in only to have it taken away 6 hrs later. Yea, its been over for days for the vast majority of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Last night was likely the nail in the coffin for any big impact on SNE outside of maybe ACK and outer cape. Needed a good bump NW and we didn't get it. No sense even being frustrated at this point. Just enjoying the impending change of the seasonal guard.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The one variable that keeps this remotely interesting is the recent trend of guidance shifting NW in the final couple days. Maybe that happens here or maybe it doesn't but obviously if we got that 100 miles extra then it would be a big deal at least for far SE areas. The biggest issue though is that guidance like the Euro wasnt even that close last night. Even if it was wrong and the 06z GFS is right by a 70/30 weighting, that doesn't get it done for 95% of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The one variable that keeps this remotely interesting is the recent trend of guidance shifting NW in the final couple days. Maybe that happens here or maybe it doesn't but obviously if we got that 100 miles extra then it would be a big deal at least for far SE areas. The biggest issue though is that guidance like the Euro wasnt even that close last night. Even if it was wrong and the 06z GFS is right by a 70/30 weighting, that doesn't get it done for 95% of the area. finally someone speaks the reality of this situation, and 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 finally someone speaks the reality of this situation, and 40/70 This has always been mostly a CC threat anyways. I didn't see many others get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 finally someone speaks the reality of this situation, and 40/70 Yea, I haven't seen JC or anyone say anything out of line....it is what it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Small improvements on the NAM. 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 This has always been mostly a CC threat anyways. I didn't see many others get too excited. this, meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Yea, I haven't seen JC or anyone say anything out of line....it is what it is... It may be the last threat of the year, so might as well track it even if it has a ceiling of a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NAM closes off at H5 which is a change from previous runs not closing off at h5, so has the EURO at 00Z TODAY. The models now are in a consensus that this H5 trough closes off, which means there is some phasing that occurs now on the guidance. 12z GFS will be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I wonder why the NWS favors Plymouth county over Barnstable county for this storm, that seems odd given that temps aren't nearly warm enough for a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I wonder why the NWS favors Plymouth county over Barnstable county for this storm, that seems odd given that temps aren't nearly warm enough for a mix. Probably because in the event that the main CCB of the storm misses the Cape entirely, Plymouth county is in a more favorable spot for OES enhancement on NE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Just looked at the plumes one gives me 28 inches lol most have nothing or very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Just looked at the plumes one gives me 28 inches lol most have nothing or very little heh, was just posting this: re: SREFs, there are 6 out-of-control ARW members (including the control) in there that are giving 1-2' for KIJD, making the mean a hair over 5". Taking those out, the mean is about 1" with the median of the strongest clustering being 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like the 12z RPM along with the 06z GFS were run from James' super computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Last round before we fully engage Sping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 12z GFS ticks a bit SE of 06z which comes at no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS put the bong down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It may be the last threat of the year, so might as well track it even if it has a ceiling of a few inches. Absolutely. That's what the forum is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Still looks like a 1-3" type deal S of I-90, Canal area looks best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Still looks like a 1-3" type deal S of I-90, Canal area looks best. As long as it looks pretty one more time I will be happy. Whether I snowblow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Canal east to CHH looks to be the best location for the heaviest snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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