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March Banter Thread


NinjaWarrior2

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There are several of us that have been doing map analysis right up until the very end. Taking time out to post to the forum because we enjoy the science and love to add information that may help others. It is not wrong to express an opinion but your initial ones make it seem as though our posts are/have been a waste of time and don't mean anything. Nobody likes to hear that and it's not too constructive.

I agree that meteorology is science, but I'm not sure how much of what goes on here in this forum qualifies, and if it does, it's minimal. The science has been done by the models. Mostly we are just looking at them and commenting on it.

:o Euro ain't exactly research science :lol:

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I agree that meteorology is science, but I'm not sure how much of what goes on here in this forum qualifies, and if it does, it's minimal. The science has been done by the models. Mostly we are just looking at them and commenting on it.

:o Euro ain't exactly research science :lol:

All of that discussion in the storm threads, ensemble comparisons, climatology is all science.

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I agree that meteorology is science, but I'm not sure how much of what goes on here in this forum qualifies, and if it does, it's minimal. The science has been done by the models. Mostly we are just looking at them and commenting on it.

:o Euro ain't exactly research science :lol:

 

There's a lot of good discussion here by those who know what they're talking about.... that is all definitely science.

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Question, as someone who has only lived in the MidAtlantic for less than a year, is it common around here for models to just get worse and worse leading up to the storm? I mean my god a few days ago this forum was gitty with "King euro" predicting 6-10" and then it all fell apart, on queue. Is this just something to expect here in DC? I myself, having lived in the UP Michigan, cannot believe how often DC gets screwed! Models weren't much help up there, so this really is my first year heavily looking at them. Thus making me realize that it's never as good as it seems around here, winter wise. Maybe it's just the fact that I've gone from 230" a year on avg to a less than a quarter of that and I'm just having withdrawals. Who knows.

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Question, as someone who has only lived in the MidAtlantic for less than a year, is it common around here for models to just get worse and worse leading up to the storm? I mean my god a few days ago this forum was gitty with "King euro" predicting 6-10" and then it all fell apart, on queue. Is this just something to expect here in DC? I myself, having lived in the UP Michigan, cannot believe how often DC gets screwed! Models weren't much help up there, so this really is my first year heavily looking at them. Thus making me realize that it's never as good as it seems around here, winter wise. Maybe it's just the fact that I've gone from 230" a year on avg to a less than a quarter of that and I'm just having withdrawals. Who knows.

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Absolutely.  Get used to it.  You averaged 230" a year in the UP, and we average about 1/2 that in digital snow, and about 1/5 of that actually falls.... and 1/2 of that doesn't stick.  Board the first train headed back to the UP.

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Question, as someone who has only lived in the MidAtlantic for less than a year, is it common around here for models to just get worse and worse leading up to the storm? I mean my god a few days ago this forum was gitty with "King euro" predicting 6-10" and then it all fell apart, on queue. Is this just something to expect here in DC? I myself, having lived in the UP Michigan, cannot believe how often DC gets screwed! Models weren't much help up there, so this really is my first year heavily looking at them. Thus making me realize that it's never as good as it seems around here, winter wise. Maybe it's just the fact that I've gone from 230" a year on avg to a less than a quarter of that and I'm just having withdrawals. Who knows.

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Yep, totally normal. For a couple reasons. Our precipitation is synoptically driven. Orographics or lake/ocean effect don't exist. Well, orographics do influence our storms but we're on the wrong side so it hurts instead of helps. And our snowstorms are usually works in progress or developing nearby. We get a lot of northern stream vorts here and they basically develop overhead most of time. Models have a much easier time resolving mature storms than potential ones.

The recent threats we've had have also been borderline and complicated. That's pretty common here too. And NWP at 3+ day leads will always struggle with that.

The short story of my long post is that you now live in a area where jumps and swings while closing are common. You'll get used to it.

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Absolutely. Get used to it. You averaged 230" a year in the UP, and we average about 1/2 that in digital snow, and about 1/5 of that actually falls.... and 1/2 of that doesn't stick. Board the first train headed back to the UP.

Haha. The set ups here are so complicated! In the UP if you had a cold NW wind, open water, and a warm lake, it would snow for days. Oh well I guess my days of seeing a couple of feet of snow a week are over. Hello DC boom or bust winters!

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lol Caps

Thats why its tough being the top team in the league. Everyone plays their A-game against you. The Caps are in the crosshairs and all the pressure is on them. Its like the models putting you in the snow bullseye 5 days out....its nice seeing it on paper/screen but there is always that uneasy feeling that it wont last. I like the Caps too....several of my favorite players on the team. Just keep your fingers crossed they dont get cold or squeeze their sticks too tight at the worst time possible.
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Not even sure I'd change the map for such minimal accums outside the mountains/blue ridge. Mappy is a nicer person than me

Well sparky went from 39 to 40, so that contour can come south a tad. Haven't seen anyone else post snow that put them in another range.

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