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Winter 2016-2017 Speculation and Discussion


AlaskaETC

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49 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Always has been.

Nah, March was rarely wintery around here. Our March snowfall the past 4 years has been AN to way AN. September's temps have been running above normal around 7 of the last 10 years at BWI, and this year is going to be way AN again. Just seems like everything has shifted back a month.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

All after March 1 though :( 

St. Patty's Day Massacre

It all melts in a 36 hours on SW winds that torch us to 83 and full sunshine during the day, then the winds die down in time for snow-eating fog all night.

School is closed for two weeks despite the bare ground because there are still a few potentially child-killing snow piles on street corners.

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On 9/18/2016 at 9:34 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

We need a over under contest for the upcoming winter.

How many times will:

WinterWxLuvr say "there are a lot of ensemble members that have a good signal for a storm"

Yoda copy and paste an AFD or warnings.

Bob say "eps"

Ian say "meh"

Eastcoast say "**** this place"

Wes post CWG links

Tenman complain about DCA temps

Yeoman call Tenman "teninch"

Mitch post the CFS

Ji post the euro control

MG say "Cobb output"

C.A.P.E says "blocking" or "nao"

Matt talks about something to do with the Pacific that I don't understand at all but agree with

The number of times WxUSA baits Ravensrule into a sexually laced quip

The number of times somebody says "jb"

The number of times somebody links DT's "pre first guess map"

Clskinsfan say "I-81 is crushed"

If I left any out, please add

:lol:

 

 

isohume saying: Weather is some serious shit.  

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I'm not surprised at anyone going mild this winter. We've been running warm the entire year, we haven't had a lick of extended blocking for 3 straight winters, and if we have any nina type influence it can spark a se ridge.  

This is going to be a year of low confidence forecasts and high bust potential imho. 

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36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not surprised at anyone going mild this winter. We've been running warm the entire year, we haven't had a lick of extended blocking for 3 straight winters, and if we have any nina type influence it can spark a se ridge.  

This is going to be a year of low confidence forecasts and high bust potential imho. 

the ao/nao forecast shows some members getting very negative for both in the long range...the pna is forecast to be positive around the same time...A perfect trifecta in the winter...hopefully we see that again down the road...the nao has been negative since July on average...

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not surprised at anyone going mild this winter. We've been running warm the entire year, we haven't had a lick of extended blocking for 3 straight winters, and if we have any nina type influence it can spark a se ridge.  

This is going to be a year of low confidence forecasts and high bust potential imho. 

I think just slightly on mild side with +2, 0, -1 and 11" DCA up to 16" suburbs.

That's not good but it isnt terrible either.

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9 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

I think just slightly on mild side with +2, 0, -1 and 11" DCA up to 16" suburbs.

That's not good but it isnt terrible either.

Seems reasonable. Late Nov into mid Dec will provide our first real clues into the personality of the AO/NAO. Hopefully we catch a break there this year. We're going to need it. 

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10 hours ago, uncle W said:

the ao/nao forecast shows some members getting very negative for both in the long range...the pna is forecast to be positive around the same time...A perfect trifecta in the winter...hopefully we see that again down the road...the nao has been negative since July on average...

We saw that last year with a raging -nao in July that carried forward. But as the seasons shifted the strat PV went all crazy on us. The CFS has been having the blue bullseye look for Dec-Jan @ 10mb for a while. I don't really care about SSW's. I just don't want a raging cold vortex asserting itself for months on end. Hopefully come Dec things don't look hostile h5 on up. 

 

cfs-mon_01_Tz10_nhem_3.png

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On 9/20/2016 at 5:25 AM, mitchnick said:

If the temps in the N Atlantic, as he now suggests,  were the cause of the +NAO, why did he waste time with the Siberian snow cover theory with his NAO prediction last year? Could it be it doesn't work? Yet he stuck with the theory last year.  This guy's predictions every year are becoming nothing more but a cr@p shoot. 

 

He hasn't abandoned the snow cover theory. There are years it does wonderful, others not so much because of factors not known. Last year...I'd say Super El Nino put the stiff arm on any it's atmospheric effects. It's not a shoe-in guarantee any year, but what is?

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13 hours ago, frd said:

Hmm, I am a bit surprised the HM thinks the current winter will be mild. I mean it can certainly happen, granted, its his early thoughts.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

HM has been hinting at this for over a month on twitter

 

14 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Anthony said that was about the UK...not the U.S.

 

12 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

FYI, This tweet is not about the U.S. per Anthony. It's about the U.K.

:lol:

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33 minutes ago, yoda said:

It is about the UK... lucky for us ;)

Absolutely.

It's just funny that people sees a post, twit, whatever and automatically assume that person is referring to their own region. Then that "knowledge is propagated and eventually someone has to deliver a smackdown. Glad it got nipped in the bud now!

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