PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 1 minute ago, mattie g said: IAD: 35.2" BWI: 25.3" DCA: 15.1" RIC: 0.1" Tiebreaker: 14.7" What's the 14.7" tiebreaker? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 30 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: What's the 14.7" tiebreaker? LOL Not sure. Should I have guessed -3F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 46 minutes ago, mattie g said: Not sure. Should I have guessed -3F? I was afraid you were gonna say the length of your avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 16 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I was afraid you were gonna say the length of your avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: IAD: 46.9" BWI: 33.3" DCA: 35.2" RIC: 20.8" Tiebreaker: -4 Take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: All after March 1 though September is now summer and March is now winter. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: September is now summer and March is now winter. I'll take it. Always has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 49 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Always has been. Nah, March was rarely wintery around here. Our March snowfall the past 4 years has been AN to way AN. September's temps have been running above normal around 7 of the last 10 years at BWI, and this year is going to be way AN again. Just seems like everything has shifted back a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: All after March 1 though St. Patty's Day Massacre It all melts in a 36 hours on SW winds that torch us to 83 and full sunshine during the day, then the winds die down in time for snow-eating fog all night. School is closed for two weeks despite the bare ground because there are still a few potentially child-killing snow piles on street corners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 On 9/20/2016 at 3:30 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: I was afraid you were gonna say the length of your avatar Hey hey, leave the dirty jokes to me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 On 9/18/2016 at 9:34 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: We need a over under contest for the upcoming winter. How many times will: WinterWxLuvr say "there are a lot of ensemble members that have a good signal for a storm" Yoda copy and paste an AFD or warnings. Bob say "eps" Ian say "meh" Eastcoast say "**** this place" Wes post CWG links Tenman complain about DCA temps Yeoman call Tenman "teninch" Mitch post the CFS Ji post the euro control MG say "Cobb output" C.A.P.E says "blocking" or "nao" Matt talks about something to do with the Pacific that I don't understand at all but agree with The number of times WxUSA baits Ravensrule into a sexually laced quip The number of times somebody says "jb" The number of times somebody links DT's "pre first guess map" Clskinsfan say "I-81 is crushed" If I left any out, please add isohume saying: Weather is some serious shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Hmm, I am a bit surprised the HM thinks the current winter will be mild. I mean it can certainly happen, granted, its his early thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 I'm not surprised at anyone going mild this winter. We've been running warm the entire year, we haven't had a lick of extended blocking for 3 straight winters, and if we have any nina type influence it can spark a se ridge. This is going to be a year of low confidence forecasts and high bust potential imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not surprised at anyone going mild this winter. We've been running warm the entire year, we haven't had a lick of extended blocking for 3 straight winters, and if we have any nina type influence it can spark a se ridge. This is going to be a year of low confidence forecasts and high bust potential imho. the ao/nao forecast shows some members getting very negative for both in the long range...the pna is forecast to be positive around the same time...A perfect trifecta in the winter...hopefully we see that again down the road...the nao has been negative since July on average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not surprised at anyone going mild this winter. We've been running warm the entire year, we haven't had a lick of extended blocking for 3 straight winters, and if we have any nina type influence it can spark a se ridge. This is going to be a year of low confidence forecasts and high bust potential imho. I think just slightly on mild side with +2, 0, -1 and 11" DCA up to 16" suburbs. That's not good but it isnt terrible either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 9 hours ago, frd said: Hmm, I am a bit surprised the HM thinks the current winter will be mild. I mean it can certainly happen, granted, its his early thoughts. HM has been hinting at this for over a month on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 9 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said: I think just slightly on mild side with +2, 0, -1 and 11" DCA up to 16" suburbs. That's not good but it isnt terrible either. Seems reasonable. Late Nov into mid Dec will provide our first real clues into the personality of the AO/NAO. Hopefully we catch a break there this year. We're going to need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 10 hours ago, uncle W said: the ao/nao forecast shows some members getting very negative for both in the long range...the pna is forecast to be positive around the same time...A perfect trifecta in the winter...hopefully we see that again down the road...the nao has been negative since July on average... We saw that last year with a raging -nao in July that carried forward. But as the seasons shifted the strat PV went all crazy on us. The CFS has been having the blue bullseye look for Dec-Jan @ 10mb for a while. I don't really care about SSW's. I just don't want a raging cold vortex asserting itself for months on end. Hopefully come Dec things don't look hostile h5 on up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 On 9/20/2016 at 5:25 AM, mitchnick said: If the temps in the N Atlantic, as he now suggests, were the cause of the +NAO, why did he waste time with the Siberian snow cover theory with his NAO prediction last year? Could it be it doesn't work? Yet he stuck with the theory last year. This guy's predictions every year are becoming nothing more but a cr@p shoot. He hasn't abandoned the snow cover theory. There are years it does wonderful, others not so much because of factors not known. Last year...I'd say Super El Nino put the stiff arm on any it's atmospheric effects. It's not a shoe-in guarantee any year, but what is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: HM has been hinting at this for over a month on twitter Anthony said that was about the UK...not the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 12 hours ago, frd said: Hmm, I am a bit surprised the HM thinks the current winter will be mild. I mean it can certainly happen, granted, its his early thoughts. FYI, This tweet is not about the U.S. per Anthony. It's about the U.K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 13 hours ago, frd said: Hmm, I am a bit surprised the HM thinks the current winter will be mild. I mean it can certainly happen, granted, its his early thoughts. 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: HM has been hinting at this for over a month on twitter 14 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Anthony said that was about the UK...not the U.S. 12 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: FYI, This tweet is not about the U.S. per Anthony. It's about the U.K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: It is about the UK... lucky for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 33 minutes ago, yoda said: It is about the UK... lucky for us Absolutely. It's just funny that people sees a post, twit, whatever and automatically assume that person is referring to their own region. Then that "knowledge is propagated and eventually someone has to deliver a smackdown. Glad it got nipped in the bud now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 I think that's a fair, conservative take in late September. There's not a whole lot to really hang your hat on as of now, so diving any deeper than that is only an exercise in saying "first." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 1 hour ago, mattie g said: I think that's a fair, conservative take in late September. There's not a whole lot to really hang your hat on as of now, so diving any deeper than that is only an exercise in saying "first." No doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 I don't get too excited or depressed about weather predictions 3 months in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 14 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don't get too excited or depressed about weather predictions 3 months in advance. Then why are you here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: Then why are you here? So I can laugh every time you post the CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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