Winter 2016-2017 Speculation and Discussion

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 hours ago, mitchnick said:

JB/Weatherbell early call

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast

Great, another back-loaded winter.  I sure hope it is wrong.

[MN Transplant]

12 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

lol of course

The last three winters + 95/96 and 96/97 thrown in so we don't accuse him of cherry-picking

[mattie g]

 

12 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

lol of course

 

12 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I don't think it's that extreme for one of his forecasts. 

I agree with mitch in that it's not quite as overboard as what one might expect from Bastardi. He's using a lot of qualifiers and is hedging on quite a bit of the forecast. It really does seem that the SSTs are at odds with each other, which makes things pretty difficult from an analog point of view.

I am surprised that he's bullish on a backloaded winter, though. Maybe he thinks we head into neutral Nino territory and that, together with the hangover factor from last year, will tip the scales towards Nino-ish tendencies.

I'm more interested in getting shots in December and January and letting the chips fall where they may late in the season. I'm sure most everyone here would agree, especially since we've had fairly paltry early seasons since 2009 (plus the whole Holidays factor and all). We're not an early-season snowtown, by any stretch, but I'd love to buck the trend this go 'round.

[Bob Chill]

JB covered all bases and hedged a little. His forecast can only bust if we torch start to finish. Which is probably unlikely. 

All I got is  it could be cold early or cold late but it will be cold at some point. Of couse if the cold is short lived he can just say "we got the timing right but over estimated intensity". 

In many ways he's just regurgitating the seasonal models, throwing in analogs, and leaving a lot of outs come verification. If the seasonals flip next month we'll see if he changes his tune. 

[mattie g]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

JB covered all bases and hedged a little. His forecast can only bust if we torch start to finish. Which is probably unlikely. 

All I got is  it could be cold early or cold late but it will be cold at some point. Of couse if the cold is short lived he can just say "we got the timing right but over estimated intensity". 

In many ways he's just regurgitating the seasonal models, throwing in analogs, and leaving a lot of outs come verification. If the seasonals flip next month we'll see if he changes his tune. 

Bingo. Though some might refer  to what he did as "smart forecasting." 

One thing I find interesting is the Nov-Jan, Dec-Feb, and Jan-Mar temp calls. Blend them together and you get a good feel for his overall temp call, but by breaking them down like that he leaves himself a lot of ways to spin verification.

[ohwxguy]

I know nearly everyone is hoping for an early winter, but just this once I actually need a mild December. Bring on the cold in January & February, but give me an average to above average December. I have a marathon in mid January (Houston) and will be doing my long training runs (20ish miles) in December. So please no ice, snow, or frigid wind chills until I begin my taper heading into January!

Hopefully the western Atlantic SSTs help maintain some ridging along the East Coast until January when I'm 100% on board for blizzards (plural)!

(except when I'm traveling/out of town for my marathon)

[soadforecaster]

On ‎9‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 3:08 PM, yoda said:

I think most of us would go crazy seeing that sounding on a GFS or NAM model run this winter

I would really love to see that on the gfs or nam. I mean I haven't got the chance to see to many ice storms. other than the 93/94, the only other times I would say we got a nice ice event was feb 14 2007, when I got about 6" of sleet. then when I lived in West Chester pa I got 1" ice on feb 5 2014. I just find that a good ice storm is about the rarest of all winter storms.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

JB covered all bases and hedged a little. His forecast can only bust if we torch start to finish. Which is probably unlikely. 

All I got is  it could be cold early or cold late but it will be cold at some point. Of couse if the cold is short lived he can just say "we got the timing right but over estimated intensity". 

In many ways he's just regurgitating the seasonal models, throwing in analogs, and leaving a lot of outs come verification. If the seasonals flip next month we'll see if he changes his tune. 

If nothing else, you've got to give him kudos for coming up with every way possible to essentially predict an average winter along the east coast, but not saying it.

[showmethesnow]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

If nothing else, you've got to give him kudos for coming up with every way possible to essentially predict an average winter along the east coast, but not saying it.

I didn't see him predict an average winter. I saw him predict a Blockbuster. 

'We are most certain about the back half of winter but if it comes on quicker, than this could be a big ticket winter.'

 

[mitchnick]

Always comforting to see the CFS2 honing in on its ENSO forecast come mid-September!

[WEATHER53]

Will be able to release KA and mine on customary date of the equinox 

[showmethesnow]

Looks like we turned the corner as far as Arctic ice last week. Looking at the graph suggests that this was a week or two earlier then normal. 

 

[HighStakes]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep...94 will probably never be topped in our lifetimes. Got to -13, -14 here with a high of 1 one day. Will never forget that 4-5 inch sleet storm with 15 degree temps....not to mention chiseling the super hard ice from around my tires a couple  times that winter - it was pure concrete .

I remember quite a few mornings walking to class at UMBC and just being frozen by the time I got inside the building. The parking lot was a good distance away which made for some brutal walks that year.

[showmethesnow]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep...94 will probably never be topped in our lifetimes. Got to -13, -14 here with a high of 1 one day. Will never forget that 4-5 inch sleet storm with 15 degree temps....not to mention chiseling the super hard ice from around my tires a couple  times that winter - it was pure concrete .

Don't think anything will top the winter of 76-77 in my mind. 

http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2014/02/04/the-great-freeze-of-1977-remembering-the-chesapeake-bays-mini-ice-age/

[WinterWxLuvr]

We need a over under contest for the upcoming winter.

How many times will:

WinterWxLuvr say "there are a lot of ensemble members that have a good signal for a storm"

Yoda copy and paste an AFD or warnings.

Bob say "eps"

Ian say "meh"

Eastcoast say "**** this place"

Wes post CWG links

Tenman complain about DCA temps

Yeoman call Tenman "teninch"

Mitch post the CFS

Ji post the euro control

MG say "Cobb output"

C.A.P.E says "blocking" or "nao"

Matt talks about something to do with the Pacific that I don't understand at all but agree with

The number of times WxUSA baits Ravensrule into a sexually laced quip

The number of times somebody says "jb"

The number of times somebody links DT's "pre first guess map"

Clskinsfan say "I-81 is crushed"

If I left any out, please add

 

 

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We need a over under contest for the upcoming winter.

How many times will:

WinterWxLuvr say "there are a lot of ensemble members that have a good signal for a storm"

Yoda copy and paste an AFD or warnings.

Bob say "eps"

Ian say "meh"

Eastcoast say "**** this place"

Wes post CWG links

Tenman complain about DCA temps

Yeoman call Tenman "teninch"

Mitch post the CFS

Ji post the euro control

MG say "Cobb output"

C.A.P.E says "blocking" or "nao"

Matt talks about something to do with the Pacific that I don't understand at all but agree with

The number of times WxUSA baits Ravensrule into a sexually laced quip

The number of times somebody says "jb"

The number of times somebody links DT's "pre first guess map"

Clskinsfan say "I-81 is crushed"

If I left any out, please add

 

 

You're officially off the deep end...

fwiw however

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You're officially off the deep end...

fwiw however

Congrats, Raleigh.

[das]

On 9/13/2016 at 7:39 AM, MiddleRvrwx said:

Ahhh, the memories of 93-94. Aka the winter of broken bones.

To this day, still the fastest sled run in my long life.  It took me 20 minutes to pick my way up the hill in my back yard and around 4 seconds to come down, my descent slowed at the end by 50m of crunchy blackberry brambles...

[EastCoast NPZ]

Homerun, Winterwxluvr.  Good stuff.  

[yoda]

Excellent post Winterwxluvr

But you forgot two:

-- Matt saying NEXT after seeing the 00z EURO at 1 AM and all of us waiting/staying up to see what it says

-- Bob using the WD index

 

[dailylurker]

2 hours ago, das said:

To this day, still the fastest sled run in my long life.  It took me 20 minutes to pick my way up the hill in my back yard and around 4 seconds to come down, my descent slowed at the end by 50m of crunchy blackberry brambles...

I've got a buddy that's still walking funny because of that winter 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can wait to open up The Panic Room again.

My guess is you'll be open for business by Dec 2.

[WinterWxLuvr]

17 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We need a over under contest for the upcoming winter.

How many times will:

WinterWxLuvr say "there are a lot of ensemble members that have a good signal for a storm"

Yoda copy and paste an AFD or warnings.

Bob say "eps"

Ian say "meh"

Eastcoast say "**** this place"

Wes post CWG links

Tenman complain about DCA temps

Yeoman call Tenman "teninch"

Mitch post the CFS

Ji post the euro control

MG say "Cobb output"

C.A.P.E says "blocking" or "nao"

Matt talks about something to do with the Pacific that I don't understand at all but agree with

The number of times WxUSA baits Ravensrule into a sexually laced quip

The number of times somebody says "jb"

The number of times somebody links DT's "pre first guess map"

Clskinsfan say "I-81 is crushed"

WxWatcher changing the "level of insanity scale"

PSU Hoffman expresses worry that he will be fringed to the south

 

If I left any out, please add

 

 

Additions

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Excellent post Winterwxluvr

But you forgot two:

-- Matt saying NEXT after seeing the 00z EURO at 1 AM and all of us waiting/staying up to see what it says

-- Bob using the WD index

 

Unfortunately the WD Index right now is high for a complete disaster. 

[clskinsfan]

I81 is crushed. Just like my frikin Redskins. Everything seems to be as it should be in Sept. JB going big early. The CFS pumping out some stuff to make you drool. And early sea ice mania... Amd the Redskins starting the season 0-2...Winter cant get here soon enough.

[frd]

 

Some interest in regards to the North Atlantic SSTs and the stratospheric AO

 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts

 

September 19, 2016

 

 

 

Figure 8. Observed and predicted daily polar cap height (i.e, area-averaged geopotential heights poleward of 60°N) standardized anomalies. The forecasts are from the 00Z 19 September 2016 GFS ensemble.

In Figure 1 I did include the AO in the middle stratosphere at 10 hPa.  This time of year troposphere-stratosphere coupling is inactive and I usually do not include the stratospheric AO in my discussions.  However due to increased greenhouse gases the stratosphere tends to be relatively cold and the stratospheric AO is positive outside of active periods of troposphere-stratosphere coupling.  Therefore I am intrigued that the stratospheric AO is deeply negative in September.  Last winter the strongly positive stratospheric AO during the early part of the winter contributed o the record warmth.  It will be interesting to monitor if the stratospheric AO retains a more negative tendency heading into the winter.

 

 

I also note that northern North Atlantic SSTs are noticeably warmer than the same time last year.  Northern North Atlantic SSTs for the past few winters have been exceptionally cold, which I believe favors an enhanced longitudinal temperature gradient, a strengthened Jet Stream, a positive NAO and warm Europe.   Potentially significantly warmer SSTs this winter could favor opposite conditions this upcoming winter with a weakened longitudinal temperature gradient, a weakened Jet Stream, a negative NAO and colder Europe.  Even warmer SSTs are present in the northern North Pacific, which could also favor high latitude blocking this upcoming winter. But it is still very early and there are many other complicating factors still unknown.  Also air and ocean temperatures remain near record levels across the NH and without dynamically forced cold, the streak of warm weather will persist

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, frd said:

 

Some interest in regards to the North Atlantic SSTs and the stratospheric AO

 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts

 

September 19, 2016

 

 

 

Figure 8. Observed and predicted daily polar cap height (i.e, area-averaged geopotential heights poleward of 60°N) standardized anomalies. The forecasts are from the 00Z 19 September 2016 GFS ensemble.

In Figure 1 I did include the AO in the middle stratosphere at 10 hPa.  This time of year troposphere-stratosphere coupling is inactive and I usually do not include the stratospheric AO in my discussions.  However due to increased greenhouse gases the stratosphere tends to be relatively cold and the stratospheric AO is positive outside of active periods of troposphere-stratosphere coupling.  Therefore I am intrigued that the stratospheric AO is deeply negative in September.  Last winter the strongly positive stratospheric AO during the early part of the winter contributed o the record warmth.  It will be interesting to monitor if the stratospheric AO retains a more negative tendency heading into the winter.

 

 

I also note that northern North Atlantic SSTs are noticeably warmer than the same time last year.  Northern North Atlantic SSTs for the past few winters have been exceptionally cold, which I believe favors an enhanced longitudinal temperature gradient, a strengthened Jet Stream, a positive NAO and warm Europe.   Potentially significantly warmer SSTs this winter could favor opposite conditions this upcoming winter with a weakened longitudinal temperature gradient, a weakened Jet Stream, a negative NAO and colder Europe.  Even warmer SSTs are present in the northern North Pacific, which could also favor high latitude blocking this upcoming winter. But it is still very early and there are many other complicating factors still unknown.  Also air and ocean temperatures remain near record levels across the NH and without dynamically forced cold, the streak of warm weather will persist

 

 

 

 

If the temps in the N Atlantic, as he now suggests,  were the cause of the +NAO, why did he waste time with the Siberian snow cover theory with his NAO prediction last year? Could it be it doesn't work? Yet he stuck with the theory last year.  This guy's predictions every year are becoming nothing more but a cr@p shoot. 

[Bob Chill]

53 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If the temps in the N Atlantic, as he now suggests,  were the cause of the +NAO, why did he waste time with the Siberian snow cover theory with his NAO prediction last year? Could it be it doesn't work? Yet he stuck with the theory last year.  This guy's predictions every year are becoming nothing more but a cr@p shoot. 

Imho- the whole post seems like nothing more than loose connections tossed around. If the nao is baseline negative this year it's just another thing to brag about. I personally don't believe there is any very long lead predictability with the nao. Even 2 weeks is a challenge with the best computer models in the world. 

Mid and high latitude ssta's can get bullied around pretty easily in the fall. We'll see how it looks while eating turkey and stuffing. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I'm gonna be doing my 2nd annual snowfall contest this winter, should be posted around early/mid November. Hoping to get even more people in it this year!

[mattie g]

21 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I'm gonna be doing my 2nd annual snowfall contest this winter, should be posted around early/mid November. Hoping to get even more people in it this year!

IAD: 35.2"
BWI: 25.3"
DCA: 15.1"
RIC: 0.1"

Tiebreaker: 14.7"